KY-Gov, KY-AG: Poll Shows Leads for Beshear & Conway

Braun Research for cn|2 (2/28-3/1, likely voters, Sept. 2010 in parens):

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 48 (44)

David Williams (R): 38 (38)

Undecided: 13 (15)

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53 (49)

Phil Moffett: 28 (29)

Undecided: 17 (19)

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53

Bobbie Holsclaw: 27

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Those trendlines are pretty ancient (more than half a year old), yet little seems to have changed since last September. These numbers look quite good for incumbent Dem Steve Beshear, and in fact aren’t too far off from PPP’s late October survey. One note of caution, though, is that Braun’s Kentucky polls were fairly favorable to Dems last cycle; their final KY-Sen numbers showed Rand Paul up seven (he won by 11.5).

Braun didn’t test the GOP primary, but state Senate President David Williams (running on a ticket with the perfectly named Ag. Comm’r Richie Farmer) is widely considered to be the frontrunner. In an internal poll from last month, Williams’ ticket took 47% to just 9% for teabagging businessman Phil Moffett and 10% for Jefferson Co. Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw, the only woman in the race. We haven’t seen any other responsive internals which might contradict this one… though hope always springs eternal. Still, don’t hold your breath for too long – the Hotline takes a long look at the many ways in which Moffett’s candidacy differs from Paul’s, and I’m inclined to agree with most of them. In particular, note that Paul himself says he won’t endorse in the primary.

This poll also included a test of the Kentucky Attorney General’s race, which gives us a good chance to check up on our old buddy Jack Conway:

Jack Conway (D-inc): 52

Todd P’Pool (R): 33

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Conway looks to have a very nice lead over Vulcan ambassador Hopkins County Attorney Todd P’Pool. P’Pool was more of a second choice after SoS Trey Grayson, who lost the 2010 GOP senate primary to (of course) Rand Paul), decided Harvard was a better fit for him than the Bluegrass State.

51 thoughts on “KY-Gov, KY-AG: Poll Shows Leads for Beshear & Conway”

  1. The problems of other governors somehow. I note a plurality in the poll believe Kentucky is headed in the right direction. A competitive race to be sure but looks at this early state like a 53-47 kind of result favoring the incumbent.

  2. it might as well fit in this race.  How safe is an incumbent, with 100% name ID, who polls under 50% against foes with much lower name IDs.  A ten point lead is nice but I still think 48% is less then 50%.  

  3. Beshear’s actually running a few points stronger than I would have guessed. His social conservatism and friendliness to coal are keeping him fairly popular across the spectrum, but the fact that David Williams is the best the GOP could drum up doesn’t really hurt.

    P’Pool looks like he’s going to be the epic failure that I expected. His numbers could rise a bit if he gets his name out there, but he has basically no chance of winning.  

  4. Good to see Conway probably landing on his feet, but would have thought Aqua-Buddha would have haunted him here? I’d imagine P’Pool will be using it as an attack at some point.

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