An absolutely mammoth-sized digest for your enjoyment today. You can return the favor by following us on Twitter or liking us on Facebook!
• FL-Sen: Remember that beyond-pathetic non-book that Mike Haridopolos “wrote” for Brevard Community College – a work so bad that the school was too embarrassed to ever even publish it? (Sample observation: politicians should carry cell phones. Political GOLD.) Actually, I lied – it’s now available to anyone with a Kindle and enough ingrown stupidity to spent $9.99 on it. But none of this, believe it or not, is even the reason for this bullet. Rather, the Miami Herald points out that in 2006 and 2009, Haridopolos directed a total of $3.1 million in the state budget toward none other than Brevard Community College. Payback for that payback sure is turning out to be a bitch, huh?
• HI-Sen: KHON2 has a rundown of the federal bank accounts of potential contenders for Dan Akaka’s now-open Senate seat. Here’s one odd thing: Charles Djou still has a quarter million bucks left over. What on earth did he do that for?
• MA-Sen: Mutual fund executive Robert Pozen says he isn’t running for Senate – “unless the Democratic Party asks me to.” Considering he served as an advisor to Mitt Romney and worked on a George W. Bush Social Security panel which recommended privatization, I’m gonna guess that he’ll be waiting by the phone for quite a while.
• MI-Sen: In response to a Facebook page trying to draft him, a spokesman for uber-teabagger Justin Amash says that he “is not contemplating a Senate run.” This also confirms a pet theory of mine, which is that if you want to grab a candidate’s attention and get him or her on the record as to whether they’ll seek a higher office, all you need to do is create a Facebook page, sign up a few people (Amash’s has just 130 “likes”), and spread the word a bit (either to the media or the candidate directly) – and bam, you’ll get an answer.
• NJ-Sen: Several states to the east, another teabagger favorite – one with a lot less to lose – is steeping a different bag of darjeeling. Anna Little, who lost to Rep. Frank Pallone last year after upsetting a wealthy establishment-type candidate in the GOP primary, says she’s considering a run against Bob Menendez. She’s previously said she wants to take on Pallone in a rematch, so who knows what she’ll wind up doing.
• NM-Sen: Alright, it’s not quite the horse’s mouth, but politically speaking, it’s just as good: A spokesperson for Republican Lt. Gov. John Sanchez says his boss is “seriously considering” running for Senate. He’d provide a conservative alternative to Heather Wilson (who made her entry official today), and he’s also personally wealthy and has self-funded in the past.
• NV-Sen: This would make life a hell of a lot more interesting: Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, who contemplated a Senate run last cycle, says he’s considering a bid to succeed John Ensign. The fact that Krolicki is openly declaring this suggests to me he’s not afraid of going head-to-head with Rep. Dean Heller in the GOP primary – and that perhaps the idea of Heller being some kind of Republican steamroller is a bit overblown.
• OH-Sen: We’ve mentioned this guy before, but the WaPo has a longish profile of 33-year-old Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who won election just last year and hasn’t ruled out a Senate run. The piece claims that Mandel has cross-party appeal, but it also quotes a teabagger leader who says Mandel is “just great on the issues and has been right from the start.” Both of these things cannot be simultaneously true.
Somewhat related, Greg Giroux helpfully provides a breakdown of last year’s gubernatorial and senate results from Ohio by congressional district.
• RI-Sen, RI-01: Scott MacKay at WNRI (a local NPR station) has a helpful backgrounder on Brendan Doherty, the state police chief who abruptly announced his resignation the other day and is thought to be contemplating a run for federal office this cycle. MacKay makes the argument that Rep. David Cicilline may present a more tempting target than Sheldon Whitehouse, largely due to the fallout from Providence’s financial troubles (the city where Cicilline was mayor until getting elected to the House).
• TX-Sen: I don’t think it’ll move any votes, but it’s a signal: Sen. Mike Lee of Utah – who may represent the purest, most highly distilled strain of teabagger – just endorsed Ted Cruz for Senate. But note the item just below – Lee won’t endorse his fellow Utahn Orrin Hatch for re-election.
• UT-Sen: While we’re on the theme of Utah and teabaggers, I actually think Orrin Hatch is being pretty smart here, Lee’s non-endorsement non-withstanding. I mean, his attempts to prove fealty to the insane-o-philes are brutally embarrassing, but they may just save his hide – which is all he cares about. His latest effort involves trying to hire prominent teabaggers as organizers for his campaign (for $2,500 a month). The Salt Lake Tribune talked to two people Hatch had reached out to – one took the job, the other liked the offer to bribery. I would have expected Republicans to appreciate the virtues of selling out a little more, but then again, the true believers usually get left out in the cold. (An aside: The article also mentions another possible challenger to Hatch, state Sen. Dan Liljenquist.)
• VA-Sen: PPP has some numbers out for the Democratic “primary” in Virginia – and I put that word in quotation marks because really, if Tim Kaine runs, no one else will, and if he doesn’t, it’s a totally different ballgame. Anyhow, Kaine is the wide favorite of Virginia Dems, to absolutely no one’s surprise. In related news, Mike Signer, a Democrat who got crushed in the primary for the party’s Lt. Gov. nomination in 2009, says he won’t run for Senate, either (or state Senate, but there’s talk he might run for AG in 2013).
• MO-Gov: Dave Catanese has some bits and pieces from a poll by Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies, the most interesting one of which is Gov. Jay Nixon’s saintly 61-26 job approval rating. I’ve gotta believe the poll included head-to-heads with super-likely opponent Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), but they don’t seem to have been made available.
• WV-Gov: The Democratic Executive Committee of Charleston (the state’s capital and largest city) hosted a gubernatorial straw poll over the weekend, and state Treasurer John Perdue came in first with 25% of the vote in a tight field. House Speaker Rick Thompson got 24, Acting Senate President Jeff Kessler 22, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant 21, and Acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin just 6.
• CA-36: Yet another Republican has joined the field in the special election to replace Jane Harman: Hermosa Beach City Councilman (and attorney, and Air Force vet) Kit Bobko is now the third GOPer in the race. Is this all part of some super-genious plan? Anyway, at least one Republican is getting out of the way: former Rep. Steve Kuykendall (who beat Janice Hahn to serve a single term in 1998, when the seat was last open, only to lose when Jane Harman – the previous occupant – victoriously returned in 2000) says he won’t run because he’s convinced the district will be “gone” after redistricting.
• CA-41: Not long ago, we speculated that the mopey Jerry Lewis might be contemplating retirement, seeing how he got passed over for key leadership spots and had just a few rusty nickels in his campaign account. Well, thanks to the Sunlight Foundation’s cool new “Political Party Time” website, we know that Lewis is hosting a high-dollar DC fundraiser next week, so perhaps he’s gearing up again. Still, he ain’t comin’ off our watch list just yet.
• Iowa: It really sounds like former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack is gearing up to run for the House. As the Des Moines Register notes, she quit her job at a non-profit last week, and has been meeting with political operatives and party regulars. As pretty much everyone has noted, though, where the heck will she run? Iowa’s losing a seat (going from five to four), and has three incumbent Democrats. This isn’t a game of musical chairs so much as it is Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots.
• MO-03, MO-LG: Missouri’s Lt. Gov. spot is expected to be open (see the MO-Gov item above w/r/t Peter Kinder), but even if it isn’t, Dems still need a candidate. One possibility is 3rd CD Rep. Russ Carnahan, who may get drawn into oblivion. Other possibilities include former State Sen. Wes Shoemyer (who lost his senate seat last year) and State Rep. Sara Lampe.
• NJ-02: Andrew McCrosson, treasurer to Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) for fifteen years, just plead guilty to embezzling over $450,000 from his boss’s campaign accounts, going back at least half a decade. Reminds of a very similar thing which happened to ex-Rep. Chris Shays.
• NY-26: Gov. Andrew Cuomo says he’ll announce the date of the special election here “later this week.” That means we’ll have an election around two-and-a-half months from now. Some cat fud just got stuffed back into the tin, though (but it was expected): Conservative Party chair Mike Long just announced he’s backing Republican nominee Jane Corwin. That more-or-less means his party’s meeting to announce a formal endorsement next week is a foregone conclusion.
As a result, teabagging Iraq vet David Bellavia now says he’s not sure if he’ll make an independent bid, citing the daunting task of collecting 3,500 signatures in the twelve days after Cuomo announces. But wait! Crazy Jack Davis says he’ll spend $3 million of his own money pursuing an independent bid. Hopefully he’ll run wildly to the right, but regrettably, his three runs on the Democratic ticket might mean he’ll claw more votes from our side than theirs.
• IL Redistricting: Gov. Pat Quinn just signed a new law requiring that racial or language minority communities not get split up when drawing state legislative lines. This measure was pushed in part by leaders in Chicago’s Chinatown, who didn’t want their neighborhood chopped up between districts once again.
• Special Elections: Johnny-Longtorso-on-the-spot:
Another light week; there are technically four specials tonight, but two are unopposed: Tennessee’s HD-98, a Democratic hold, and Virginia’s HD-91, a Republican hold. The two contested elections are Tennessee’s SD-18, freshman Rep. Diane Black’s district, a safe Republican seat; and Arkansas’ HD-24, where the Republican candidate died before the 2010 election, but was elected posthumously, so the seat ended up vacant. The latter might be interesting, given the Democrats’ recent troubles – it was held by a Dem who was term-limited prior to the deceased Republican winning it last year.
That Arkansas special has gotten exceedingly vile: A member of the Garland County Republican Committee has been sending around emails attacking Dem Jerry Rephan as “a pro-abortion Jewish lawyer” and emphasizing the need to support Republican Bruce Cozart because he’s a “Christian.”
• Wisconsin Recall: In a really interesting article, Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel observes that recall efforts are now underway against 16 state senators – 8 Dems and 8 Republicans – something that appears to be unprecedented in scope, pretty much anywhere. The largest number of state legislator recalled at the same time for the same reason? Two, on three separate occasions in three different states. One other detail: The number of signatures required varies from 11,817 in Dem-held SD-06 to 20,973 in GOP-controlled SD-28. But the whole piece is worth a read.
• WATN?: Several entries in the “Where Are They Now?” Dept. today. Democratic ex-Rep. Brad Ellsworth (IN-08) will become president of Vectren Corp.’s Indiana gas utility division in May. Democratic ex-Rep. Paul Hodes (NH-02) says he’s starting a new firm to help New Hampshire companies “that need a better understanding of Washington.” Hodes is being very careful not to call himself a lobbyist, since he’s barred from that activity for a year; his comments (and his new choice of career) suggest he’s not planning a return to politics. And finally, Republican ex-Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (FL-05), who announced her retirement last year on the day of the filing deadline, says her health has improved (that was, she says, her reason for stepping down in the first place) and that she wants to run for office again. She’s not sure exactly what office, though, and she won’t decide until the middle of this year.
then the Republican should win easily.
raising a lot of money though, (at this rate he could put together 3-4 million by Florida’s late primary), and LeMieux, Hasner, Mack, all seem like likely candidates. It definitely benefits Nelson to have the Republican money-pool deeply divided while his own is united, and for Republicans to have an aggressive primary battle to out-conservative each other.
I hope Christie Vilsack runs and takes out Boswell. I think she’s the best chance Democrats have at beating Tom Latham.
David Cicilline is safe, particularly during a Presidential year. He had a very well funded, strong Republican candidate in the best cycle they’ve had in about twenty years, and on top of that had to fight through a very rancorous and expensive Democratic primary and still won by 10,000 votes. With incumbency I figure he’ll have a strong hold on the district barring a serious scandal related to his mayoral tenure.
I just wonder what’s keeping Rep Heinrich. He needs to jump in early and out-muscle other potential Democrats.
Today is 3/8…the diary reads “SSP Digest: 2/8”
I support his prospective candidacy because his name would score very high in a game of Scrabble.
Plus, the hilarity of Sens. Lee and Liljenquist is too good to pass up.
That’s what I’ve been seeing here so far, and Ralston is with me on this. What’s more likely is Brian Krolicki running for NV-02, as Krolicki is part of the same mainstream conservative wing of the Nevada GOP that Heller is. (And especially since Krolicki’s college saving program scandal as State Treasurer, he just doesn’t have the stature to primary Heller.) And now with Krolicki likely to jump into NV-02, the RNCC can worry less about Sharron Angle waltzing through that primary (if Angle hasn’t yet made the decision to just run for NV-Sen again).
Btw, how come you didn’t catch Ross Miller’s big announcement? (Skip to 3:30 on Block 4.) He told Ralston he’ll run if Shelley doesn’t. Why am I thinking the DSCC has already been meddling in our primary? 😉
To be precise, Hodes isn’t banned from being a lobbyist; he’s banned from lobbying his former House colleagues, or House staff. He is free to lobby the Senate, the White House or federal agencies.
Talking to people, I am getting the idea that Haridopolos is starting to raise a few red flags with some people in FL. No one wants to got up against Nelson with someone who has a bunch of scandals stuck to them, no matter how nice their hair is. Mack is looking like a safer bet, but this race has a long way to run. FL GOP already has the FL-25 mess to deal with.
I’m seeing more and more buzz about Mandel in OH-Sen. I am thinking that he must be leaning towards a run. He wouldn’t have to give up his position and none of the House members seem to want to step up despite the fact that one of them will be redistricted out of a job. I think he’d be a strong candidate and OH will probably be ground zero in the turnout battle, so it should be a close race if he does.
I’m certainly glad to see Sanchez making moves in NM. I feel he’d be a much stronger candidate for the GOP than Wilson. And if Cruz gets the GOP nod next door in TX, well, two GOP Sen candidates who are Hispanic can’t hurt at all.
Daylight Savings Time is sure different this year, jumping back to February and all…
I can’t find his name but want to post on it before I forget it. He was termed limited and as noted could not run for re-election. The GOP winner of the Nov election died before taking office in January. One of those constitional quirks exist in AR. The Term limit amendment limits representatives to 4 terms but another amendment deals with vacant seats. An elected representative, apparently stays in office, until his replacement is sworn in. So death of the GOP winner had the practical effect of extending of the term limited incumbent. Instead of continuing in office the incumbent representive resigned, even as he was termed limited and the seat became vacant.
In other circumstances we have seen thousands of dollars spent on court fights or legal proceedings but this gentleman put the will of the people 1st. He resigned and for better or worse the people will elect someone today.
I told you so!
Run, Sharron, run! 😀
in the city of Bell, California. You may not have heard about the massive scandal, but it’s been like the top local TV news story here in Los Angeles for several months now. The recall election will most likely succeed, given the immense hatred of the current city councilmembers. The only question is who will replace them on the city council.
And to make matters more macabre and interesting, one of the candidates running died unexpectedly of the flu just a few days ago.
There’s also a crapload of ballot measures for us Los Angelenos to figure out today. The most controversial one is probably Measure O, since it would tax oil companies. Except it wouldn’t hit Chevron or Exxon Mobil, but rather the small (yes, they do exist) ones, because it only applies to those companies that extract oil WITHIN the city limits of L.A. For that and other reasons, the Daily News and the Los Angeles Times have actually both come out against Measure O, while Democratic groups are supporting Measure O.
And next door in West Hollywood, there’s been a very contentious city council battle. A DailyKos frontpager is the campaign manager for the three incumbents up for re-election, and the campaign has gotten extremely nasty. I mean, like compare the incumbent to Mubarak and Mugabe nasty. The L.A. Weekly also ran a nasty hit piece against the incumbents, and one of their writers then had a blog post where they mocked the size of the DailyKos frontpager’s nose, and another where they made the same Egypt comparison. Stay classy now.
PPP just released their poll on the Maine Republican primary and Snowe is in some trouble. Against two weak candidates she only manages to get 43% to 18% for D’Ambrose and 10% for Dodge. That may not look too bad, but the underlying numbers for her are awful. When asked what party she should be in: 33% said Democratic, 34% said Independent, and only 27% of Republican primary voters said Republican. 58% say she’s too liberal and when matched up with “more conservative option” the result becomes 33% for Snowe and 58% for “more conservative option.”
Snowe’s only hope is for the field to become so fractured so she can eek out a win or to change parties.
Aren’t Krolicki & Heller fairly close (not close enough to coordinate their career together, but I also doubt they haven’t spoken)?
Heller hasn’t seemed to be chomping at the bit to run for Senate, but willing to take out Ensign if that’s what Team Red needed…with Ensign officially out does he now defer to Krolicki, who obviously IS chomping at the bit to run for higher office (and show he’s still the state GOP golden boy he was before the bogus ethics issues came up).
Now would Krolicki be able to clear the primary like Heller seems able to? Krolicki vs Angle doesn’t sound like nearly the stomping that Heller vs Angle would be.
A couple of good articles
http://blog.gulflive.com/missi…
http://www.clarionledger.com/c…
The State Senate committee created a black majority district in Hattiesburg that is compact.
“But Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, a Republican candidate for governor, is staging a revolt – irking some of the rank-and-file – and pushing his own map that would keep three Republican-friendly districts by splitting Hattiesburg.
“I continue to oppose the gerrymandered districts within the Pine Belt area that collapses a Republican district only to create one controlled by Democrats,” Bryant said in a statement.”
Apparently, Bryant thinks a compact district is a gerrymander, but one that splits up a city between three districts is perfectly fine.
just checked the wiki entry on the Missouri state senate….and there are only 7(!) Democrats out of a body of 34 left in the state senate. That’s just horrible for a state that’s still sort of competitive for Democrats on the state level.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
It seems to be very much a witch hunt.
WI voters oppose weakening collective bargaining 57-39.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
GOP has to be happy with McCaskill’s numbers.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
36% job approval with Independents and little crossover appeal.
http://www.census.gov/newsroom…
Still looking at the numbers but one thing I checked, 51% of those under 18 are Hispanic.
Kuykendall did not defeat Harman in 1998.
Harman did not stand for reelection as she was running for governor
Kuykendall won an open seat and then lost it when Harman wanted her old job back
Nancy Pelosi is coming to Des Moines later this month to headline a fundraiser for Leonard Boswell at the home of Roxanne Conlin. I will look forward to seeing the host list for that event.
Senator Tom Harkin headlined a fundraiser for Boswell’s campaign in January and has subtly discouraged Vilsack from challenging Boswell in a primary.
One thing that seems to be getting left out of the discussion of the State Senate recalls in Wisconsin is that, win or lose, whether they qualify for the ballot or not, the Dems and the unions will have 150,000+ signatures of people who want to recall someone over this, that’s almost a third of the people needed to recall Walker, and this will be without setting foot in Madison or Milwaukee. . To say nothing of Janesville, Racine, Kenosha, Eau Claire or Superior.
It will be a trivial matter to get these folks to sign again when it’s time for Walker, and to get the rest of the signatures for Walker. And the latest Rasmussen (!) poll has him at 43-57, with 48% strongly disapproving. He’s already nearly at a majority who strongly disapprove.
The constitutional grace period is the only thing keeping him in office right now.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
In a revote scenario, Cornilles would beat Wu 41/33. 1/4 of Ds are undecided, which would more than make up the difference.
aka if Ds abandon Wu, he’s toast. To me, it feels like Ds in the district are currently undecided. Data comes from the poll and from what I hear of the response in Washington county (the heart of OR-01)
(Washington Co response based on the BlueOregon Twitter feed from his meeting there yesterday).
http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.co…
I wonder if this (putting teabaggers on his election payroll) could somehow backfire on Hatch.
TP’s are just too unpredictable a group. The “rules” are constantly in flux.
Also, how does one “organize” to get past the 3400 activists at that upcoming UT GOP convention? That’s Hatch’s main hurdle.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo…
Arkansas was a 60-40 win for the Republican.
The Tennessee Senate seat was a 2-1 Republican hold. Also, this is the guy that was unopposed in the State House election.
I hear there’s also a special primary in California, AD-4, to replace the guy who was elected to the State Senate in a special election back in January. It’s a safe Republican district with one Democrat and something like seven Republicans running.