OH-Sen: Newest PPP Poll Shows Big Improvement for Sherrod Brown (D)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/10-13, Ohio voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)

Jon Husted (R): 34 (38)

Undecided: 18 (18)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)

Jim Jordan (R): 30 (35)

Undecided: 21 (22)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (40)

Mary Taylor (R): 30 (38)

Undecided: 21 (22)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48

Josh Mandel (R): 32

Undecided: 21

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48

Steve LaTourette (R): 30

Undecided: 22

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49

Drew Carey (R): 34

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Some days, I get out of bed and have to think about which Republican it is I hate the most. Usually, though, I don’t, because it just winds up being John Kasich. But today, if Public Policy Polling is right about these numbers, then John Kasich is my new BFF – and Sherrod Brown’s, too. I always like seeing a d-bag like Kasich suffer, but when that also helps a great progressive like Brown, well hell, it’s a great day for America! Tom notes three key points:

1) There are more undecided Republicans than Democrats, so these mostly no-name GOP candidates have more room to grow – but at 48 or 49 points, Brown is already very close to victory.

2) In December, Brown was tied among independents with his potential opponents. Now he has sizable leads – for instance, 18 points against Lt. Gov. (and former Auditor) Mary Taylor.

3) Similarly, Democrats are coming home. Brown was just 75-15 among members of his own party versus Taylor; now he’s 86-3. Brown may not have much crossover appeal, but at this point, neither do the Republicans.

I’ll add another observation: PPP asked respondents whom they voted for in 2008. The answer: 49% Obama, 46% McCain. That’s very close to Obama’s actual 4-point margin. While I’d bet that not all of these Obama voters will pull the lever for him a second time, this does demonstrate that the 2012 electorate is looking a hell of a lot more like 2008 than 2010. If that holds, then we might not do too badly.

50 thoughts on “OH-Sen: Newest PPP Poll Shows Big Improvement for Sherrod Brown (D)”

  1. You mention in the last paragraph that some of the Obama voters might not vote for him in 2012.  I think there is a good possibility, and I certainly hope, that some of the people who voted for McCain in 2008 hoping he would govern like the “Maverick” of 2000 will switch over and vote Democratic.

    This is especially true if the Republican nominee is not Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, or Mitt Romney.

  2. when the other Brown (MA)poll was posted.  Scott Brown was above 50%. I do note that S. Brown is still under 50%.  No not saying either will be re-elected come 2012 but in my 50% is a big number for anyone to poll at this point in time.  Scott is a yes and Sherrod is a no.

    PPP found a base of 43%D in this poll.  In 2008 CNN exits found 39% and in 2006 it was 40%D for Ohio? So if one believes this poll is accurate we are looking for a blend of D voters in Ohio  in Nov 2012 that exceeds 2006 & 2008.  

    I guess we will see as its pointless to debate that point in March 2011.

    I do note that RAS had the R’s at +9% generic.  Gallup had party ID at +1R so those numbers are well of whack with what PPP in showing in Ohio.  

  3. Brown probably won’t prevail by 15%+ or even his ’06 margin, but the GOP bench here is nothing to write home about. Taylor will be tainted by her Kasich connection and LaTourette won’t give-up his House seniority on a long-shot Senate run.

  4. PPP finds very little interest among the young.  In this poll the 18-29 aged voters are 7% of the electorate.

    In 2008 they made up 17% of the electorate and in 2004 they made up 21% of the electorate.  

    I can do this by state:

    Missouri – In 2008 voters 18-29 made up 21% of the electorate, in the PPP poll they make up 10%.

    Virginia – in 2008 they made up 21% of the electorate and in 2004 they made up 17%. In the PPP poll they made up 9%.

    North Carolina – In 2004 they made up 14% of the electorate and in 2008 they made up 16% of the electorate. In the PPP poll they made up 10%.

    Wisconsin: In the PPP poll they made up 10%, in 2008 they made up 22% and in 2004 20%.

    SO what to make of this?  My guess is that interest in an election for marginal voters really doesn’t change until an event happens to spark their interest.  In 2008 it was the primaries.  In 2012 my guess is that we will not see this trend reverse until the Convention.  As a result trial heats will likely understate true Democratic strength.

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