Wisconsin recall: 3 GOP State Senators Trail Generic Dem, More at Risk

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos.)

We asked our pollster, Public Policy Polling, to test the waters in all eight Republican-held state Senate districts in Wisconsin which are currently the target of recall efforts. PPP went into the field over the weekend, and the numbers we got back are very interesting. I’ve summarized the key results in the table below.





































































































Dist. Incumbent Approve Dis-
approve
Support
Recall
Oppose
Recall
Vote
Incumbent
Vote
Democrat
Number of
Responses
2 Rob Cowles 32 40 36 39 45 43 2,199
8 Alberta Darling 51 42 38 54 52 44 1,333
10 Sheila Harsdorf 43 43 38 47 48 44 2,385
14 Luther Olsen 32 42 40 39 47 49 2,307
18 Randy Hopper 38 47 44 33 44 49 2,550
20 Glenn Grothman 49 30 28 53 60 32 2,561
28 Mary Lazich 35 29 26 44 56 34 2,471
32 Dan Kapanke 41 55 52 44 41 55 2,759

We asked a battery of questions in each poll (links to full results are at the end of this post). One basic question asked whether respondents approve of the job performance of each senator-those numbers are in the first two columns after each incumbent’s name. Four senators have negative ratings, and one is even-not particularly welcome news for Republicans.

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We also asked whether respondents support or oppose the idea of recalling their senators. As you can see in the next pair of columns, this question doesn’t test as well-pluralities say they favor recall in just three districts-but in a way, it’s the least important question we asked. As long as canvassers collect enough valid signatures, a recall election will happen automatically under Wisconsin law. So while this is helpful information to have, it is far from dispositive, especially when contrasted with the next pair of columns.

“Vote Incumbent” and “Vote Democrat” summarize data from our most critical question. We asked poll-takers whether, in a hypothetical election that would be held later this year, they’d support the incumbent (whom we mentioned by name), or his/her “Democratic opponent.” (This sort of question is often described as testing a “generic Democrat.”) Here, the results give us reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Three Republican incumbents actually trail “generic Dem”: Luther Olsen, Randy Hopper, and Dan Kapanke. Two more have very narrow leads and garner less than 50% support: Rob Cowles and Sheila Harsdorf. And one more, Alberta Darling, holds a clear lead but is still potentially vulnerable. (Two recall-eligible senators, Mary Lazich and Glenn Grothman, sit in extremely red districts and look to have safe leads.) These numbers suggest we have a chance to make five and possibly six recall races highly competitive.

But a key thing to remember, though, is that if any of these senators have to face a recall election, we’ll need an actual candidate to run against each of them. In that regard, Wisconsin’s recalls are very different from California’s, where in 2003 voters were simply asked if they wanted to remove Democratic Gov. Gray Davis from office. Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected (with less than a majority) by means of a separate ballot question. In my view, California’s system makes it easier to boot an office-holder, because at bottom, the first question simply asks if you’d prefer some other-any other-alternative. If your answer was “yes,” you then had your choice on the second question, whether it was Arnold (R) or Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (D) or Gary Coleman (?). In Wisconsin, if a recall election makes it on to the ballot, there is no California-style first question-we go directly to a head-to-head between candidates (with a possible stop along the way for primaries). So for a recall to succeed, we’ll need to convince voters to support a real live Democrat-and that means we’ll have to recruit some good candidates.

As the recall process moves forward, you’ll want to bookmark this link and keep it handy. It’s a chart of the 2004 & 2008 presidential results in each state Senate district in Wisconsin. While not a perfect measurement, the presidential numbers offer a clear baseline for a rough-cut assessment of how competitive each district is likely to be. Of course, many other factors are involved, but if you click the link, you’ll understand immediately why Kapanke is in such trouble – he’s in the bluest district held by a Republican, one that went 61% for Obama and 53% for Kerry. A little further down the list, you’ll see that Olsen, Cowles, Hopper, Harsdorf, and Darling all occupy districts with roughly similar presidential results that hover in swingy territory, so you can see why at least the first four are at risk. Darling’s stronger performance is somewhat surprising, given that senators in comparable districts all do worse, but even she is not out of the woods. Bringing up the rear are Lazich and Grothman, who holds the most Republican seat in the entire state. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which either of them could fall.

One final detail: You’ll notice that in the table up above, the last column reads “Number of Responses.” That refers to how many people actually completed our poll when we called them. If you’re familiar with electoral polling at all, those numbers are simply eye-popping, particularly for state senate districts. Our target was 600 to 800 respondents per poll, and yet we got well into the two thousand range for all but one of them (and even that outlier had over 1,300). What does this mean? The only reasonable conclusion is that an unusually high proportion of Wisconsinites are tuned into this conflict, and when given the opportunity to make their opinions heard, they jumped at the chance. While we can’t yet say for sure whether the enthusiasm gap has been erased, we do know that folks in Wisconsin are very definitely paying attention.

And so, of course, are we. As the situation warrants, we’ll revisit these districts and test the poll numbers again. For now, though, we wait on the outcome of the petition drive to force these recall elections in the first place. Then the battle will really begin.

Full Results: Cowles | Darling | Harsdorf | Olsen | Hopper | Grothman | Lazich | Kapanke

68 thoughts on “Wisconsin recall: 3 GOP State Senators Trail Generic Dem, More at Risk”

  1. First, thanks David for posting this.

    So, I have a friend who works in Wisconsin government and has some connections on the Repub side of things. He was telling me some interesting stuff the other night. Take this with a grain of salt.

    1). Massive pressure is being put on Hopper to resign, particularly now that the mistress situation is coming out. If he does, that makes this seat much easier to hold for the Republicans.

    2). Other than that, Krapanke is viewed in a huge amount of trouble, but there is confidence they can hold the other seats. There is a thought that people are going to feel less strongly about this in the summer, when the elections will be held. Also of note, Darling is actually thought to be in the most trouble of the remaining Senators, even though she did well in this poll.

    3). This was the most interesting piece of information: there’s speculation in Republican circles that Walker might not mind losing the Senate. The theory being that Walker is actually more moderate than people realize (he was Milwaukee county executive for eight years) and it’s Fitzgerald (who has a reputation for being quite a d-bag), who was driving a lot of this. If Republicans lose the Senate, Walker can position himself as more of a centrist, and a recall against him can’t take place until May of 2012 at the earliest anyway. By then, with a recovering economy, a lot of the steam will be taken out of the movement.

    Don’t know what anyone thinks about this. David is probably right this is going to be a bit trickier than the California election. If Hopper resigns, I think it’s a 50-50 chance Dems take the Senate, if he doesn’t, I think it’s more like 70-30 we win.  

  2. That would potentially  increase the security of that seat for Republicans, but they’d still have to play defense in an open seat. Harsdorf looks more vulnerable than Darling, but Darling had a narrower win last time around, so I think she’s more vulnerable even if the polling shows her in better shape.

  3. Teabag organizers are not getting any support from the WI GOP and very limited support from national groups.  They’ve had to trim their target list now to 3 from their original 8.  Conservatives in WI are crying that the party as a whole has become complacent and are being out organized and outdriven by our side.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

    The word on the street is that the WI GOP is convinced that this thing will simply blow over by summer.  I hope they keep thinking that.

  4. Weigel is claiming Tea Party activists in Wisconsin are claiming they are at 50% for the needed signatures just like the Democrats are.

  5. All you democrats/communists make me ( a real middle class taxpayer in Wisconsin) want to puke.  These may be your numbers.  OK.  I bet Darling’s numbers surprised you jerks!  As time progresses and the people of the state come to learn just how the unions have raped them for years the tide will turn even more against you.

    The big speeches by Jesse Jackson (how many $ did he pay in Wis taxes last year? – but I bet Acorn helped him get a few votes in for Barret) and Jimmy Hoffa and other organized crime members will be remembered for what they were. Union crybaby wind.

    Lastly let’s not forget the recalls against Holperin, Wirch and that scumbag Hansen.  Those should even things out just fine.

    In the meantime why don’t you crawl back under the rock where you came from?

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