SSP Daily Digest: 3/23

KY-Sen: Lolz.

OH-Sen: This is about as far from the horse’s mouth as you can get (paging Goldy?): The Columbus Dispatch is simply asserting that Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel “is leaning toward a run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and will make an announcement this spring.” They don’t even say, “according to sources”-is that supposed to be implied or something? Anyhow, I’ll wait for Young Master Josh to confirm, seeing as no one else is reporting this.

In other Ohio news, PPP has their miscellaneous report card available… and this time, it’s extremely miscellaneous.

CA-Gov (PDF): The Field Poll has preliminary job approval ratings for Gov. Jerry Brown, who has a pretty sharp-looking 48-21 score in the early going. But don’t get too excited: Guess who had 54-15 approvals at the same point in his first term? Yep, that’d be Gray Davis (scroll down to p. 3 for the completely historical picture).

NC-Gov (PDF): I’ll be honest, PPP’s regular NC-Gov polls were starting to all run together in my head, but this time, Tom Jensen & the gang tried something different: they tested a bunch of alternatives to the very unpopular incumbent Dem, Bev Perdue. The sad news for Team Blue, though, is that even our best hope, AG Roy Cooper, still trails likely GOP nominee Pat McCrory by a 43-35 margin, though that’s better than Perdue’s 50-36 gap. State Sen. Dan Blue (trailing 48-28) and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (trailing 47-27) don’t change the equation, either. I also seriously doubt that Cooper would run; he was courted for Senate in 2009 but declined early on. He seems pretty happy where he is and, at age 53, can still wait a bit before deciding to move up. (I’m guessing 2016 vs. McCrory would be a good matchup.)

WA-Gov: This is kind of meh, but if you like your tea weak, drink up.

FL-26: No, that’s not a typo! It’s just another super-genious catch by Greg Giroux. Lunatic Karen Diebel, last seen losing the FL-24 GOP primary to now-Rep. Sandy Adams, has filed to run for Congress once again. What’s awesome about this is that Diebel has kicked her DeLorean up to 88 miles per hour, since her paperwork says she plans to run in the as-yet-uncreated twenty-sixth congressional district. Click the PDF for the documentary proof. This should be great. (Click here if you need a refresher on Diebel’s batshittery, including the infamous Snakes in a Pool incident.)

IN-02: Former Republican state Rep. Jackie Walorski, best known as Wacky Jackie, surprised no one in formally announcing she’d seek a rematch against Rep. Joe Donnelly, something she’d been toying with ever since her narrow loss last fall. (Walorski blames Donnelly’s one-point escape on the five percent a Libertarian Party candidate managed to snag.) Of course, two huge, inter-related questions remain here: What will the 2nd CD look like after redistricting, and will Donnelly seek re-election or try his hand at higher office? Stay tuned… for a while.

NY-26: Janie’s got an ad: Republican Jane Corwin is out with a second spot (her first was a bio ad) that hits themes as old as the hills: Dem Kathy Hochul wants to raise taxes, and she’s a clone of Nancy Pelosi. NWOTSOTB, but the Corwin campaign claims that the ad is “is airing districtwide on broadcast,” according to The Hill.

OH-10: With his seat potentially headed for the carving board, Dennis Kucinich is obviously trying to win over as many friends as possible before the state legislature starts up the redistricting process. Kucinich said in an interview on Monday that President Obama’s decision to order air strikes on Libya “would appear on its face to be an impeachable offense.” (By the way, check out that PPP item up above – Kucinich has 27-40 favorables statewide.)

PA-07: Now this is damn interesting. At that recent DCCC fundraiser in Philly we mentioned the other day, Steve Israel reportedly met with former Safe Schools Advocate Jack Stollsteimer about a potential run against freshman Rep. Pat Meehan, who took over Joe Sestak’s old seat last cycle. Stollsteimer confirms he met with “party leaders,” and says he’s giving the race “serious consideration.” But what makes all this so unusual is that Stollsteimer served as Meehan’s press spokesperson for many years while Meehan was Delaware Co. DA and later U.S. Attorney! It’s only been a few months, but Stollsteimer says he has “serious problems with what [Meehan]’s already done as our Congressman.” Could be good!

PA-08: That don’t impress-a me much: the NRCC put out a press release attacking ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy for something or other, perhaps because they’re concerned he might run for his old seat again. (That’s possible, though he might also run for state AG.) But press releases are cheap, and who knows how many carbon-copy releases the NRCC put out, seeing as they don’t put them all up on their website.

LA-St. Sen.: They switch parties in Louisiana like Denny Hastert changes underwear-which is to say, not every day, but perhaps with some frequency. It should come as little surprise that the latest state legislator to don a not-so-fresh pair of tighty-whities is moving from D to R. But a diarist at Daily Kingfish points out that Norby Chabert (great name) isn’t exactly some crusty Dixiecrat playing out the string-he’s a freshman who has said publicly he voted for Obama, and was relentlessly attacked on that score during his first election campaign in 2009. It’ll be interesting to see if the whole mess of recent converts like Chabert wind up getting teabagged to death.

Philly Mayor: A judge denied Mayor Michael Nutter’s request to remove wacky opponent Milton Street from the ballot, and Nutter said he would not appeal. (Nutter said that Street violated the city’s residency requirements, which say you have to live in Philadelphia for three years before seeking office, because Street was serving out a sentence in a federal prison in Kentucky.)

Wisconsin Recall: The RSLC-that’s the Republican State Leadership Committee, the GOP equivalent of the DLCC-is going up with new television ads against Democratic state Sens. Jim Holperin and Dave Hansen, who sit in the two most Republican districts held by Dems and are the target of recall efforts. Neither district is really red, though-they were both lost by Kerry but won by Obama, making them more swingish than anything else. Politico notes that the RSLC has already been running ads against Holperin, and that the new buy is expect to cost $50K a week, while the anti-Hansen campaign will run “six figures over several weeks.”

How is this for awesome, though? One Wisconsin totally busted the RSLC for using stock footage so fake, it was actually watermarked with the words “FILE FOOTAGE” in the bottom corner!

Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: It was only a matter of time-and not that much. The WMC-Wisconsin’s version of the Chamber of Commerce-is preparing to run ads in support of Republican David Prosser’s campaign to stay on as justice. (I’m guessing these will be attack ads against JoAnne Kloppenburg.) Progressive groups are already on the air with a spot that equates Prosser with Gov. Scott Walker.

Meanwhile, in a candidate forum yesterday, Prosser’s already infamous “I’ll destroy you, bitch” comments of course came up-and he once again repeated his defense that, well, a bunch of women made him do it, by (as the AP put it) “ganging up on him.” He also apparently failed to apologize for his remarks.

Polltopia: You know what to do.

Redistricting Roundup:

Alaska: Yes, Alaska! While the state obviously doesn’t have to worry about congressional redistricting, it does have to re-do its legislative maps. And believe it or not, the state actually has something of a Democratic gerrymander, since last time around, Dem Gov. Tony Knowles controlled key appointments to the panel responsible for producing new maps. This time, of course, Republicans control all the levers of power, so payback is expected.

Maryland: MD has long been a popular target at SSP for redistricting plans, so I’m not sure there’s much new here in Aaron Blake’s latest state-by-state installment. But you geeks tell me!

Mississippi: Dems in the state House voted to join that NAACP lawsuit I mentioned yesterday, which is seeking to enjoin the state from holding elections this year under the old district lines-something which could happen if the legislature stalemates on new maps, which is looking increasingly likely.

131 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 3/23”

  1. Here’s an interesting profile of Rudy! Giuliani as he contemplates whether to run for president as he’s in New Hampshire doing all of the things that a presidential candidate would do. These paragraphs in particular stuck out at me:

    On Friday night, Mr. Giuliani’s pitch had a particular New Hampshire bent. He avoided mentioning the social issues on which he and the state’s Republicans might diverge-in 2008, he had tried to split the difference with the G.O.P. base on abortion, gay marriage and gun control by casting them as issues best left to the states-and opted instead to praise the state’s Tea Party and to portray resistance to the administration’s health care bill as a “Live Free or Die” struggle against tyranny.

    “I’ve always believed the emotion of the Tea Party is because it reaches into something deeper in an American’s soul, which is, ‘They’re taking our freedom away,'” he told The Observer in a back room before the speech, in between posing for pictures with the evening’s V.I.P.’s, who had paid $100 for the privilege.

    “This president appears to want to have an America where Americans have less to say about their future, and the government has more to say about your future. And if you know New Hampshire, you know that’s a very powerful theme in New Hampshire. Live free or die.” He rocked back in his chair and let out a commanding laugh. “Wow, that’s a powerful thought, right?”

    Mr. Giuliani said he might even be capable of carrying the Tea Party mantle. “I think if the Tea Party looks at my record, they would find a lot of things to like,” he said.

    Asked if his disastrous showing last time-when he leveraged his front-runner status into one lone delegate-might hurt his chances, Mr. Giuliani shrugged.

    “We’ll see,” he said. “We’ll see. I don’t know the answer to that yet. When I know the answer to that, I’ll tell you-when I’m running or not running.

    Considering what a manget for controversy (divorcing his wife via press conference) and corruption (Bernie Kerik, anyone?) he is, I can only imagine how his opponents or comrades on the right will dig through his past to find something to to beat him over the head with. For instance, take this little nugget, from a speech he gave in New York City in 1994, which I believe made an appearance last time:

    We look upon authority too often and focus over and over again, for 30 or 40 or 50 years, as if there is something wrong with authority. We see only the oppressive side of authority. Maybe it comes out of our history and our background. What we don’t see is that freedom is not a concept in which people can do anything they want, be anything they can be. Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do.

    I’d love to see the mental gymnastics that some people use to justify this crap. Maybe I should take a look at the speech Pat Robertson gave when he endorsed Giuliani last time.

    I guess he’s not a complete idiot like Palin, but this entire campaign has the whiff of “What happens if your jackass cousin from Long Island tries to run for president?” I kind of hope he advances, because I think there is, at worst, a one-for-one trade amongst votes from moderate Republicans to conservative Democrats. Once he’s in a race where his faults and past are magnified, he’ll go down faster than a virgin on prom night.

  2. Iowa GOP Chair invites Donald Trump to headline the state GOP’s big Lincoln Day dinner this summer:  http://www.desmoinesregister.c

    It’s embarrassing enough for the state GOP that Iowa has become irrelevant in deciding the GOP Presidential nomination, and at times has elevated cranks and laughingstocks like Pat Robertson (2nd place ahead of Bush 41 in ’88) and Huckabee.

    But even for them, this is a new low.

    Really, Iowa Republicans need to thank their lucky stars that Iowa Democrats take their duty seriously and matter so much in deciding the nomination on the Democratic side.  Indeed, Iowa Dems were the kingmakers the last two Presidential cycles for Team Blue.  If it wasn’t for the Democrats, the state’s hold on the first-in-the-nation delegate selection contest would be much more tenuous.

  3. Guess who’s also releasing her new autobiography!

    Sharron Angle is spending thousands of dollars to self-publish an autobiography about her life and values.

    An AuthorHouse spokesman told The Associated Press Tuesday that Angle contracted the book with the leading self-publishing company this month, just days before she announced her campaign for the U.S. House.

    Spokesman Kevin Gray says publishing packages can cost up to $15,000. Copies of the book would be printed by demand.

    As a self-publisher, Angle has control over the design and editing of the book. She is hoping for an April release.

    I hear it’s supposed to be called, “The Right Angle”. And I’m sure she is… For Dems to compete in NV-02! 😉

  4. Story here:

    I don’t know why I’m surprised by this, but I keep wanting to believe this or that Republican pol who took a sane approach to at least a few issues will remain sane.  But no, Flake goes full teabag now on immigration.

    Meanwhile, Arizona’s much more far-right neighbor to the north, Utah, in a strangely far less publicized move, goes the exact opposite direction of Arizona and legislates state-level “legalization,” or “amnesty” to the teabaggers, for undocumented aliens!  The Governor has signed the bill into law, so it’s done.  Here’s a story on the bill’s politics,… and here’s the actual bill,

    Reminded that Chris Cannon lost his seat to Chaffetz a few years partly over being “soft” on illegals, I don’t know what to think about how immigration will play in UT-Sen or downballot.

    Keep in mind Utah’s law really isn’t worth anything, a state has no authority to decide or change an alien’s legal status.  But this potentially puts the Obama Administration in a bind, since Utah just did what Obama would like to do in federal legislation, and that Bush tried and failed to do.  And yet, Utah’s own law isn’t valid, how do they not come out and say that?

    The White House simply has to be relieved that the Utah law isn’t making any big news…but it’s hard for me to believe it won’t get more noticed eventually.  That Utah is a right-wing state and did this, and that Utah is Arizona’s very neighbor, both make the news angle even more compelling.

    Hatch, for his part, on Facebook,… explicitly said he has no position on the Utah law, citing “states’ rights,” but then he went ahead and bragged about opposing “amnesty” and favoring enforcement-only his entire career at the federal level.

    I can’t help but think having “no position” on the state law hurts him further in the nominating convention next year.

  5. A photo ID bill modeled on Indiana’s passed the Iowa House in January but looks dead for this year in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

    Not a single one of Iowa’s 99 county auditors supports making all voters show photo ID, but our new Secretary of State Matt Schultz is not giving up–he’s planning a statewide tour this spring to win public support for the bill. The timing is weird, because the legislature will be adjourning this spring until next January, but Schultz is widely expected to run for higher office before too long. Probably he just wants an excuse to get his name out there.

    I laughed when I saw that Jim Gibbons (GOP establishment candidate in last year’s IA-03 primary) is going to accompany Schultz on his voter ID tour. Schultz picked Gibbons to be his deputy in charge of the Secretary of State’s Office business division. The job has nothing to do with voter ID regulations.

  6. It sounds like they are shooting for 7-1, but there is a decent possibility they stay 6-2.  That would be unconscionable since it is so easy to do 7-1 or even 7-0-1.  

    I’m not sure why they’re focusing on Andy Harris when eliminating Bartlett is much easier.

  7. On every scrap of data that 2010 would be great for Republicans? I’d argue part of the actual result may well have been a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many of us said at the time they were never as fast in 2006. Neither it seems for 2012.


  8. I have followed the LPIN fairly often, and it is easily the strongest state affiliate of the party right now (Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina have relatively strong state parties as well, but they do not have the local strength and do not perform as well statewide either).

    The Libertarians in Indiana did something many in the party do not do enough and ran to the left. The congressional candidates ran with a certain emphasis at times on their anti-war position, particularly against Democrats who are more conservative than the rest of the nation.

    So sure, Walorski got some fiscal conservatives to vote for her for sure. But the LPIN has also been a bit wiser in targeting the left too.

  9. Nothing there we haven’t been discussing, although we’ve thought about some of this stuff more than the reporter has.

    He seems not to have figured out the extent to which it’s possible to make the 1st at least a purple seat (which should be plenty enough to rid us of the awful Andy Harris) without significantly weakening the 2nd or 3rd.  

    It’s still a pretty good article, like the rest of them I’ve read a terrific primer for the uninitiated.  

  10. Does Diebel realize that the new Orlando seat is probably going to be a majority-minorty district that is effectively a Democratic vote sink?

    I’ve been playing around with FL in the DRA, and it looks like the real winner in Central Florida is going to be Webster, since the new Democratic seat will relieve him of his weakest areas. Adams is not going to benefit at all, since her district is already gerrymandered to elect a Republican. It will probably get cleaner lines and maybe become one point more Democratic.

  11. CNN Poll (warning .pdf):

    Mike Huckabee led all potential candidates at 19%, followed by Mitt Romney (18%), Newt Gingrich (15%), and Sarah Palin (12%). Trump broke into double-digits as well, coming in at 10%.

    In CNN’s latest poll, Paul placed behind Trump, at 8%.

    In the CNN poll, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum each garnered 3%, while Haley Barbour garnered 1%.

    I can’t believe that Trump has broken into double-digits. That man is absolute idiot.  The GOP’s best candidates are way at the bottom.  

  12. Some of us discussed this over the weekend. In particular the idea that minorities won’t be there for the president next year like they were in 2008. I hereby present an interesting addendum to that conversation.

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