A deal is done in Lousiana, too:
The House on Wednesday voted 63-35 to approve a congressional redistricting plan, sending it to Gov. Bobby Jindal who is expected to sign it.
About 90 minutes earlier, the Senate voted 25-13 for the measure. …
The redistricting vote came on House Bill 6 by Rep. Erich Ponti, R-Baton Rouge, after three hours of debate and most amendments being rejected. Ponti asked the House to approve the Senate-made changes to his bill when the House took it up shortly before 2 p.m. …
Ponti’s bill keeps in place two north Louisiana-based congressional districts that run from the Arkansas border into Acadiana and the Florida parishes on the east and almost to Lake Charles on the west.
UPDATE: Apologies for the confusion – but then again, what isn’t confusing when it comes to Louisiana politics? I believe that the correct maps (and population breakdowns) are contained in this file (PDF). This is the overview:
Click the link above for detail insets of places like New Orleans. Racial breakdowns are below:
| District | Total Pop. | White | Black | Asian | Indian | Other | Hispanic | Registered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-01 | 755,557 | 598,443 | 104,671 | 16,848 | 15,103 | 20,492 | 52,377 | 449,535 |
| 100.0% | 79.2% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 6.9% | 77.7% | |
| LA-02 | 755,538 | 236,430 | 475,543 | 20,562 | 4,039 | 18,964 | 43,372 | 448,947 |
| 100.0% | 31.3% | 62.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 78.8% | |
| LA-03 | 755,596 | 532,798 | 194,139 | 11,486 | 6,003 | 11,170 | 23,014 | 458,419 |
| 100.0% | 70.5% | 25.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 81.6% | |
| LA-04 | 755,605 | 462,166 | 263,408 | 8,765 | 10,324 | 10,942 | 24,176 | 432,023 |
| 100.0% | 61.2% | 34.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 76.2% | |
| LA-05 | 755,581 | 466,461 | 271,034 | 6,127 | 5,780 | 6,179 | 15,321 | 450,681 |
| 100.0% | 61.7% | 35.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 79.4% | |
| LA-06 | 755,495 | 539,894 | 178,090 | 17,763 | 5,304 | 14,444 | 34,300 | 440,770 |
| 100.0% | 71.5% | 23.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 77.2% |
That blows. I halfheartedly expect this to end up in court to force two VRA districts.
Continuity, (because i think it’s more like 1.5 districts in that boxed in territory, or curve off some of the land area of outer Orleans Parish that is most white and thinly populated.
You could actually make the same connection that the legislature has. That green swath of water would have the be blue but it doesn’t affect population
http://www.legis.state.la.us/b…
One ugly 6th district. Tonight on RRH I will have full info and analysis, particularly on the Landry-Boustany match.
It’s OK If You’re A Republican. You know, how to some it’s OK for Republicans to gerrymander but Democrats have to be the nonpartisan, “good government” redistricters, or how Barack Obama’s deficit spending is a grave national crisis but George W. Bush’s deficits were fine, or at least unimportant (not to get off topic here, but you get the idea.)
Is that New Orleans is fast becoming similar to Little Rock. A city with a substantial black population, but not substantial enough to constitute a VRA district on its own. Eventually there won’t be a dense enough pocket of african americans to constitute a VRA district… Which will suck for Democrats.
I can take from this map is that it looks like the 5th gets substantially more Democratic, with St. Landry, St. Helena, and the Feliciana’s, Benville, Winn, Lincoln and Jackson are also swingish counties when it comes to state politics.
I can’t tell where they split Pineville-Alexandria in Rapides, but it looks like they might have followed the river and cleanly severed them, which also means they dumped a substantial African American population away from the 5th and into the 4th which had the room to spare.
It’s sad to say this, but it looks like those two northern counties are the Democrats best chances at pick ups. Unless Landry wins the GOP primary in the 3rd and Chris John makes a comeback attempt.
Lives in New Iberia, in the 3rd
one – Patrick Leahy
In the entire history of the state, only a single Democrat has served in the United States Senate.
Only two Democrats have been elected to the House since the creation of the Republican party in the 1850s: William Meyer and Peter Welch. (one seat was reliably dem in the 2nd party system).
isn’t that difficult. Have one New Orleans based one that doesn’t take in that white suburbs in Jefferson County. Have another extend from Baton Rouge to the MS Delta and have a few spider webs to Lafayette, Opetousas and Alexandra. Bam two VRA districts.
I’m quite astounded by that statement really. And his post are usually quite sensible. Not only is 30% an absurdly large percentage of the black vote for a Republican, but a district containing New Orleans has a considerable population of white liberals, meaning a moderately liberal, untainted black politician like Richmond should be able to expect 40% of the NOLA proper white vote, if not more.
The current LA-02 is actually closer to 50% black, if not plurality white, and yet that didn’t even come close to saving Cao in a normal turnout election, (even in the 2010 environment). It’s a shame to see him making excuses for what is truly an all out Republican gerrymander that leaves no other seats even remotely competitive for Democrats in the near future.
Politically?
Iowa is expected to vote on theirs this week, and it is expected to pass by wide margins in both chambers, and be signed into law by early next week. If this doesn’t happen, it’d be shocking. Having a commission draw the lines is not a bad thing, and the districts actually look pretty neat and orderly.
Indiana’s will probably pass as well. So there are four states who have released maps that are basically assured of passage:
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Louisiana
The seat count is basically:
Arkansas:
SSPitizens are split on the seat count between 1-3 and 2-2. Let’s call it 1-2-1.
Indiana:
SSPitizens are united in their belief that this is 2-6-1.
Iowa:
A split in judgment again. Some thing 2-2, some think 3-1. Lets call it 2-1-1.
Louisiana:
This is quite clearly 1-5.
Total seat count so far:
6-15-3 (D-R-Swing)
Scott Angelle now lives here. He could run when Alexander retires, if he isn’t Gov or Sen by then.
arguably has the same problem as the TX-25 that the Supreme Court struck down in LULAC v. Perry. Moreover, there’s arguably a vote dilution claim for black residents of the 4th and 5th because it is possible to draw a second reasonably compact minority-majority district centered around Baton Rouge. At least, it seems to be.
is much easier this time around because La. lost a congressional seat due to population loss. With seven seats it was much more difficult, but with six it can be done. If the DOJ allows this crap to pass without comment then something is wrong. This Republican endorsed second district is nothing but a racial gerrymander packing as many African Americans as they can into one district. Period! The Grand Old Party did the same thing in Virginia’s third district.
does anybody want to read my hs senior thesis on racial gerrymandering? it seems relevant here
This is so IOKIYAR I can hardly stand it anymore.
Republicans are allowed by the public to create districts like the second, a blatant dem vote sink, when there could easily be two AA dem districts by connecting Baton Rouge to the delta counties up north. Yet in AR we chicken out and don’t extend the 4th to Fayetteville!!!
I’ll tell you what, these people (the GOP) prove to be more and more dangerous by the day. Why can’t people give the GOP more hell about that constant barrage of atrocious things that they do! (Ok, broad statement, whatever.)
And the 5th is ridiculous as well!! Putting Washington county, something that should obviously be in the 1st, in the 5th! The only district that makes any sense is the
3rd, what I shall deem Louisianna’s “little Texas”, as its economy and lifestyle are eerily similar to that of the denizens of Texas’s SE coast.
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Oh btw, why join a dating site when you could just join ssp!! As a 22 y/o gay man who just graduated from UT, I am always so surprised at the amount of other younger gay men around here. How Awesome!
And I didn’t just mean the thesis, I mean the whole “real life is approaching way too fast” complex that I’ve had for the past month or two!
He’d have a lot more friends willing to go to bad for him than Landry does. Wonder who’d be the odd man in that case.
He’d have a lot more friends willing to go up to bat for him than Landry does. Wonder who’d be the odd man in that case.
LA-01 (Steve Scalise, possibly versus Jeff Landry) is considered by far the most GOP district of the state, and it now reaches around and grabs a ton of coastal area from Jeff Landry’s old LA-03…but by population the center is still north of New Orleans in Saint Tammany’s Parish, right? So Landry would get destroyed by Scalise here, I assume.
LA-02 (Cedric Richmond) expands out from New Orleans to Baton Rouge to maintain 63% African-American status, as many expected.
LA-03 (Charles Boustany, possibly versus Jeff Landry) is now physically centered in the southwest coastal districts and is mostly Boustany’s old LA-07 territory, so again Landry is screwed despite his home in New Iberia now being in the eastern edge of this district.
LA-04 (John Fleming) is probably the least changed district. Still the left half of Northern LA.
LA-05 (Rodney Alexander) now has a weird tail that goes out to Washington Parish. A couple points more AA but nothing to get too excited about.
LA-06 (Bill Cassidy) drops the black areas of Baton Rouge (lowering its AA percentage from 33% to 24% and probably making it unwinnable for us) and makes up for it by making a curve around LA-02 to grab some more of the old LA-03, further demolishing Landry’s district.
I know many of you are saying this is a Republican gerrymander. The truth is: its not. The original map, by Republican Erich Ponti, was much nicer than this. This plan has been amended by Democrats in the Senate and House many times. That 5th district? Democrats made it. If Republicans really wanted to do a gerrymander, they would keep LA-02 out of Baton Rouge and make it an even 50.0% VAP black. I made one like that. That district would likely have less than 50% black voter registration. In a year with low black turnout, a Republican could win it if they unified the white vote and took about 30% of the black vote. Then it would be a 6-0 map. Democrats wanted LA-02 in Baton Rouge to make it safe. If we didn’t go to Baton Rouge, there would be accusations that we were diluting minority voting strength. It had to do that
the only for sure maps so far AR and LA? or has IA decided their’s yet too?
Texas State House (150 members)
http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/
Click Select Plans, then Base Plan, then choose Plan H113. Off the Kuff has a good summary for Harris: http://offthekuff.com/wp/?p=36208
Texas Tribune includes everything: http://www.texastribune.org/te…
If this is out of line for this diary, I apologize. I thought it would be relevant since it is still map related. I will repost this in the digest, if out of like here, mods, delete this comment!
23 and 23 are Democratic (Port Arthur and Galveston).
50 seats.
HD27 looks to be more Democratic.
51 seats.
I’m pessimistic about Democratic potential from this map, but it does look like we’ve been given two new seats.
They tried that second black district back when they had 7 seats in 1991 and every plan they tried got overturned in court.
From the “butt ugly” so-called “Mark of Zorro” district-started in Shreveport went across the northern border (a thin band of border precincts-but including Grambling), down the Mississippi, over to Alexandria and Lafayette to get their black neighborhoods and then over to Baton Rouge.
Then there was the oblong football that stretched diagonally from Shreveport to Baton Rouge.
Finally, something approaching the current (prior to this map) set up was passed and it was accepted.
If you go for a second VRA district and you think that this map looks bad, SON, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
54, male, Libertarian/Conservative, TX-24 (formerly LA-04)