RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLa.com | Shreveport Times | Baton Rouge Advocate | WWLTV
2:44PM Sun: DCal looks at the numbers and finds that the Dems have held the state House, too.
12:35AM (final update): TXObserver brings us some key state House results. Looks like the Republicans picked up a few seats and forced run-offs in other Dem-held districts. Democrats had a 17-seat edge in the state House going into the election. We’ll have to wait a few weeks to see what the complete carnage is.
11:59PM: The lack of a Democratic candidate with a strong appeal in Orleans Parish really helped lift Jindal over the 50% mark. Check this out: while Mitch Landrieu cleaned up with 90% of the vote here, Democrats Boasso and Campbell combined for a pathetic 28% of the parish’s vote, with 382 of 442 precincts reporting. That’s way behind Republican-turned-Indie John Georges’ total of 38%, and even behind Jindal’s 33%. Talk about a wipeout.
11:51PM: So here’s why I think that Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) didn’t deserve to win re-election tonight: his website sucks.
11:36PM: TXObserver brings us some state Senate races to watch in the comments. It looks like Mitch Landrieu will win comfortably–he’s holding his closest challenger to a 56-32 margin with 82% of the vote in.
11:30PM: KTBS has Jindal at 47% with 3,413 precincts reporting, but he’s expected to rack up some big points in his home turf in the NOLA suburbs (he scored 88% of the vote in his re-election bid there last year against two hapless Democrats). (Update: there seems to be some bad math here, anyway.)
11:23PM: WWLTV’s calling the race for Jindal.
11:14PM: With 3,032 of 3,967 precincts reporting, Jindal is sitting tight with 53%.
11:08PM: Highlights from some of the other statewide races — Mitch Landrieu has 54% of the vote in bid for re-election as Lt. Governor with 2372 precincts reporting. Democrat James Caldwell and incumbent Attorney General Charles Foti (D) are both slightly edging Republican challenger Royal Alexander. Looks like a Caldwell-Foti run-off could be in the cards.
10:40PM: 2.641 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:33PM: 2,636 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 56%, Boasso 18%, Georges 14%, Campbell 10% (according to WWLTV).
10:22PM: 1,388 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 52%; Boasso, 18%. Landrieu holding at 51%.
10:20PM: 1096 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:14PM: From WWLTV New Orleans: “Election analyst Greg Rigamer says things are looking very good for Jindal to get over 50% and win outright.”
10:03PM: 787 of 3,967 precincts reporting: 52% Jindal, 19% Boasso.
9:56PM: 470 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 19%. Landrieu at 51%.
9:47PM: 298 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 54%, Boasso 18%. Landrieu at 50%.
9:27PM: 11 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 60%, Boasso & Campbell at 14% each. Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu at 46% in the absentee ballot count so far.
9:21PM: What a surprise: some New Orleans voters get screwed at the polls.
9:06PM: 1 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 63%, Boasso 15%.
It’s election day in Louisiana, as voters go to the polls to choose between Bobby Jindal (R), Walter Boasso (D), Foster Campbell (D), John Georges (I), and a slew of also-rans in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Kathleen Blanco. Polls close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern. Turnout has been described as “brisk” and “steady” in the reports that I’ve seen. We’ll update this thread as results come in.
How well will Jindal do tonight? Will he avoid the run-off? Who will place second? I don’t usually like to stick my neck out, but here’s my bet, for what it’s worth: Jinal 55%; no run-off.
I’m also going to go out on a limb and guess that John Kennedy is re-elected as Treasurer without a run-off.
aside from jindal will do well.
there’s the fact that voting is taking place on a saturday, possible low turnout due to an off year election, possible high turnout due to an electrified electorate. a confidant republican electorate that turns out in high numbers/stays home, confidant in jindals victory. an unenergized democratic electorate that stays home/comes out in high numbers due to fear of gov jindal. the football game that’s a big deal in the state (i don’t know anything else about it). an electorate that’s more comfortable with a white guy than a nonwhite guy (sad, i know, but it’s a factor).
there are so many variables in this that speculation is impossible. speculation on the results however, is not. i see it like this.
jindal 60%+:elected, bad for dems, will steer state to the republicans.
Jindal 50%-59%: elected, will hurt dems, but not too bad.
Jindal 45-49%: not elected still strongly in his court though. there are 13 candidates.
jindal 40-45%: not as good as expected, but still a strong candidate.
jindal below 40%: now we have a race! if this happens for WHATEVER REASON it will seriously deflate his momentum. going from inevitable to less than 40% would give his opponent just enough momentum to have a chance. unlikely? yes. possible? yes.
Jindal 45% gets a run-off
Mitch-Wins No-runoff
Senate-Dems keep control GOP gains
House-Dems keep control GOP gains
Campbell gets second
Jindal 47%
Boasso 18%, goes to runoff
Georges / Campbell get 14% + 12% respectively, rest get 9%.
Dems lose a seat or two in the House,
McDonald wins senate seat, Riser Wins Ellington’s senate seat, Boasso’s overwhelmingly Republican seat goes back to Republicans, and Democrats pick up two open south louisiana seats previously held by Democrats who switched to the Republican party, net gain of one seat in the state senate. Empty headed, visionless Mitch goes to a run off with Gary Beard in the LG race. Odom goes to a run off with Mike Strain in the race for sectrary of Agriculture. Buddy Caldwell goes to a runoff with Charles Foti in the AG race. Jindall gets 44%, Boasso goes into the runoff. And I say that’s all there is to it for tonight. Time will show how wrong or how right I am.
Jindal has a 52%-22% lead over Boasso.
don’t they always
The results page won’t reload.
n/t
These are probably a little old by now, but this was the most recent update from the SOS website
1st District (Boasso’s Seat, Dem Seat) 72% reporting
Ken Odinet (D) 57%
A.G. Crowe (R) 43%
2nd & 3rd District Dems Hold
4th District (Dem seat) 81% reporting
Edwin Murray (D) 67%
Thomas Kennedy (R) 28%
5th District Dems Hold
6th District Reps Hold
7th District (Dem seat) 39% reporting
David Heitmeier (D) 52%
Paul Richard (R) 34%
8th District (Dem seat) 17% reporting
John Alario (D) 60%
John Roberts (R) 40%
9th, 10th, & 11th Districts, Reps Hold
12th District Dems Hold
13th District Reps Hold
14th and 15th Districts Dems Hold
16th District Reps Hold
17th, 18th, 19th, 20th Districts Dems Hold
21st District (Dem seat) 71% reporting
“Butch” Gautreaux (D) 74%
Clayton Diaz (R) 26%
22nd District (Rep seat) 63% reporting
Sydnie Durand (D) 38%
Jeff Landry (R) 35%
Troy Hebert (D) 27%
23rd District Reps hold
24th District Dems hold
25th District (Rep seat) 94% reporting
Gil Pinac (D) 38%
Dan Morrish (R) 34%
Mark Abraham (R) 29%
26th, 27th, 28th, 29th Districts Dems hold
30th District Dem pickup
31st District (Dem seat) 98% reporting
Gerald Long (R) 53%
Thomas Townsend (D) 47%
32nd District (Dem seat) 96% reporting
Neil Riser (R) 48%
Bryant Hammett (D) 43%
33rd District (Rep seat) 90% reporting
Charlie McDonald (D) 54%
“Mike” Walsworth (R) 46%
34th District Dems hold
35th District Reps hold
36th District Dems hold
37th District (Rep seat) 26% reporting
B. L. “Buddy” Shaw (R) 25%
Billy Montgomery (R) 22%
Barrow Peacock (R) 19%
Sheva Sims (D) 18%
“Jay” Murrell (R) 17%
38th District Reps hold
39th District Dems hold
Again, probably a little old by now. Forgive me if there are any mistakes
1st Reps hold
2nd, 3rd, and 4th Dems hold
5th & 6th Reps hold
7th (Dem seat) 96% reporting
Richard Burford (R) 33%
Kenny Cox (D) 21%
Hilda Fair Rives (D) 18%
John G. Russell (D) 18%
8th & 9th Reps hold
10th & 11th Dems hold
12th Reps hold
13th Dems hold
14th (Dem seat) 98% reporting
“Buddy” Quinn (D) 42%
“Sam” Little (R) 34%
“Stan” Neathery (R) 24%
15th & 16th Reps hold
17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd Dems hold
23rd (Dem seat) 100% reporting
“Rick” Nowlin (R) 35%
Joseph Sampite (D) 33%
24th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
“Frankie” Howard (R) 31%
Mary Ann Wiggins (D) 28%
25th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Lance Maxwell (R) 41%
“Chris” Roy (D) 35%
26th Dems hold
27th Reps pickup
28th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Robert Johnson (D) 32%
Kirby Roy (R) 31%
29th Dems hold
30th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
James Armes (D) 49%
“Jack” Causey (R) 38%
31st (Rep seat) 100% reporting
Donald Trahan (R) 50% 7,365
Nancy Landry (O) 50% 7,332
32nd (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Dorothy Sue Hill (D) 46%
James David Cain (R) 41%
33rd Dems pickup
34th Dems hold
35th & 36th Reps hold
37th (Rep seat) 100% reporting
John Guinn (R) 32%
Kyle Reed (D) 30%
38th Dems hold
39th (Dems hold) 100% reporting
Raymond LaLonde (R) 30%
Bobby G. Badon (D) 27%
40th, 41st, & 42nd Dems hold
43rd Reps hold
44th Dems hold
45th Independent holds
46th Dems hold
47th Rep pickup
48th, 49th, & 50th Dems hold
51st (Dem seat) 65% reporting
Carla Dartez (D) 46%
“Joe” Harrison (R) 39%
52nd Reps hold
53rd Dems hold
54th (Rep seat) 100% reporting
Mitchell Theriot (R) 37%
Jerry Gisclair (D) 34%
55th & 56th Dems hold
57th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Nickie Monica (R) 29%
“Geri” Broussard Baloney (D) 17%
Randal L. Gaines (D) 17%
Natalie Tatje (D) 16%
58th Dems hold
59th Reps hold
60th & 61st Dems hold
62nd Reps hold
63rd Dems hold
64th, 65th, & 66th Reps hold
67th Dems hold
68th, 69th, 70th, & 71st Reps hold
72nd Dems hold
73rd & 74th Reps hold
75th Dems hold
76th, 77th, 78th, 79th, 80th, 81st, 82nd Reps hold
83rd Dems hold
84th Reps pickup
85th Reps hold
86th Reps hold
87th Dems hold
88th, 89th, & 90th Reps hold
91st Dems hold
92nd Rep pickup
93rd Dems hold
94th (Rep seat) 88% reporting
“Nick” Lorusso (R) 49%
Deborah Langhoff (D) 28%
95th, 96th, 97th, 98th, 99th, 100th, 101st, & 102nd Dems hold
103rd (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Reed Henderson (D) 22%
Mark Madary (D) 19%
“Mike” Bayham (R) 18%
Clay Cosse (R) 18%
104th & 105th Reps hold
Who gains and how many?
From the New Orleans Time Picayune
http://www.nola.com/
I came up with the following
Senate Totals (20 needed for Majority, Democrats had 24 according to DLCC):
Democrats – 23
Republican – 13
Undecided (Run Offs) – 3
House Totals (53 needed for Majority, Democrats had 62 according to DLCC):
Democrats – 46
Republicans – 42
Independent – 1 (District 45)
Undecided (Run Offs) – 15*
*district 55 is a democrat vs. someone of the N party
*Of the run offs, if you wanted to declare a winner by saying which party got over 50%, Democrats won 12 of 15.
And yes, I missed a house seat somewhere. I’ll figure it out later.
This is not too bad. It looks like we are gonna hold both legislatures and the Attorney General in the run-off. Dunno how the Agriculture Secretary will turn out. If all we lost was the Governor’s office and just a narrower majority in the legislature, I think we did pretty good. Mary Landrieu may have a chance afterall.
in most of the Dem held seats going to runoffs, the Democratic vote added up to much more than the Republican vote.
It looks like Democrats have only lost one seat so far.
Still looking into it…
I’m wondering how big New Orleans will play. He’s sitting three points over 50%. New Orleans should hurt him a little more than 3%. It’s too liberal.
Jindal will get about 51%.
about state legislative races too.
but not always.
…especially since many races will go to a run-off.
Here’s a D-held district that will go to a run-off: HD24
http://www.shrevepor…
…if the SoS site wasn’t do damn buggy and slow. Jay Dardenne is clearly out of his league and out of his mind.
Dem’s seats aren’t set in stone as holds yet:
1st
4th
7th
8th
31st
32nd
Republican’s seats aren’t set in stone as holds yet:
22nd
25th
33rd
How many look like takeovers?
All of the Republicans seats I noted (3)
Democrats (2)
31st
32nd
We might actually gain a seat in the State Senate.
Democrats will trade Districts 31 & 32 for Districts 30 & 33.
There may be two runoffs in Republican seats.
So right now, with runoffs, it’s 25 Democrats, 12 Republicans, and two unknowns.
With these results holding, Democrats will need to win the one or two of the runoffs to pick up a seat. And as of right now, Democrats won’t lose any Senate seats.
State House:
http://www.nola.com/…
(The results from the New Orleans Times Picayune match with the results on the Sec of State Web Site (which is impossible to use for getting all results in one place — as far as I can tell — since you have to go Parish by Parish).
54 Democrats elected (or in runoffs with other Democrats)
38 Republicans elected (or in runoffs with other Republicans)
1 Independent elected
11 Runoffs between a Democrat and Republican
1 Runoff between a Democrat and an Independent
The Democrats had a larger total share of the vote in 8 of the 12 seats with runoffs.
Following is the Dem share of the vote for the 12 runoff seats (with the remaining share Republican unless noted):
District 7: 56%
District 14: 41%
District 23: 65%
District 24: 69%
District 25: 59%
District 30: 49%
District 32: 54%D, 41%R, 5% Ind
District 37: 53%
District 51: 64%
District 55: 59%D, 41% Ind
District 94: 29%, 69%R, 2% Ind
District 103: 31%D, 55%R, 14% Ind
Before the election (according to the National Conference of State Legislatures web site: http://www.ncsl.org/…), the breakdown was 63D, 41R, I Ind. If Dems win the runoffs where they have a larger share of the primary vote, they will end up with 62 seats, a net loss of 1 seat.
State Senate:
http://www.nola.com/…
21 Democrats elected (or in runoffs with other Democrats)
13 Republicans elected (or in runoffs with other Republicans)
4 Runoffs between a Democrat and Republican
As TXObserver Repored, Republicans came back and won District 1. They also ended up winning in District 33.
Dem share of the vote in the 4 runoff races:
District 7: 59%
District 22: 65%
District 25: 38%
District 32: 51%
Before the election, the breakdown was 25D, 14R. If Dems win 3 of the 4 runoffs, they will end up with 24 seats, a net loss of 1 seat.
But, regardless of the runoff results, Demcorats have retained control of both the State House and State Senate.
According to an article in today’s New Orleans Times Picayune, the State House situation is as follows:
46 Democrats elected or runoffs between Democrats
41 Republicans elected or runoffs between Republicans
1 Independent elected
16 Runoffs between a Democrat and a Republican
1 Runoff between a Democrat and an Independent
http://www.nola.com/…
So (contrary to my previous post), Democrats have not won control of the State House yet. But, Democrats held 13 of the 17 runoff seats before the election, which is a positive sign.
For the State Senate, there are:
22 Democrats
13 Republicans
4 Runoffs