Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/2-4, registered voters):
Charlie Melancon (D): 41
David Vitter (R-inc): 48
Don Cazayoux (D): 39
David Vitter (R-inc): 48
Charlie Melancon (D): 40
Jay Dardenne (R): 49
Don Cazayoux (D): 38
Jay Dardenne (R): 50
David Vitter (R-inc): 43
Jay Dardenne (R): 32
Stormy Daniels (R): 1
David Vitter still seems to have an edge in his quest for re-election to his Louisiana senate seat, but it looks like he could have a rocky time of it in both the primary and the general. Vitter is polling below the 50% mark in each, and he has a lukewarm 49/42 favorable/unfavorable.
Vitter performs about the same against both Democrats polled (Rep. Charlie Melancon and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux, neither of whom seem to be moving in the direction of running). Neither Melancon nor Cazayoux seems well-known outside their respective districts, so this is basically a test of “Generic D.” (Names that get talked up more as the eventual candidate include ex-Rep. Chris John, who lost to Vitter in 2004, and former Louisiana Democratic Party head Jim Bernhard, not that either of them are well-known, either.)
On the other hand, notice that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne perfoms just as well as David Vitter, if slightly better. It may be that we’re seeing “Generic R” on the GOP side as well, and partisan lines are pretty hard-set (at least at this point, before people know much about the individual candidates). Dardenne is being talked up for the race by others, but publicly has been noncommital so far; out of all the favorables/unfavorables in this poll, Dardenne fares the best of anybody at 48/22.
Despite Dardenne’s favorables, Vitter beats Dardenne in the primary — not surprising, given how conservative the Louisiana GOP base is, and that Dardenne is something of a moderate figure while Vitter has been charging to the right. However, there’s a wild card here that wasn’t polled: Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins, who has made his interest in the race known. It would be interesting to see Perkins polled in this race, both whether the polarizing religious right talking head would fare worse than Vitter in the general, and his effect on the primary. It’s possible that in a 3-way primary, with Vitter and Perkins splitting the hard-right vote, Dardenne could sneak through with the support of what passes for moderates in Louisiana. (As you can see, the Stormy Daniels candidacy hasn’t aroused much interest yet, although I’m sure she won’t take that lying down.)
Well, I don’t know who else to include in the tags, but this thread is about people who lost races–even if by landslides–who we think have real potential to do something awesome.
Scott Kleeb: obviously, the netroots darling of this cycle. With his coming so close in NE-03 last time, I think he should have run again there, rather than get in over his head running for the Senate seat against a non-crappy (and quite tough) candidate. It seems that the fact that Adrian Smith sucked hasn’t yet resonated into netroots consciousness the way Bill Sali’s antics have, and thus it was passed around that Kleeb’s overperformance in NE-03 meant that he could similarly overperform in all of Nebraska. But he seems like he’s got a future ahead of him, and I think we’d love to see him back.
Gary Trauner: I think I’ve mentioned several times that he’s my favorite candidate, and not only that, he’s almost singlehandedly built a semblance of a Democratic bench in Wyoming (of all places!). His name’s been tossed around as a gubernatorial candidate, since (to paraphrase someone) Wyomingites are more comfortable sending a Democrat to Cheyenne than to DC.
Nancy Boyda: a nearly heart-breaking loss, from the person who I’ve heard got DCCC money in 2004 and lost badly, then refused it in 2006 (mostly) and won a surprise victory, and then refused it again in 2008 and lost narrowly. I remember seeing one of her announcements in her capacity as a Representative, and she seemed like a quite hard-working person who really wanted to serve her constituents.
Jon Powers: three words: Jack ****ing Davis. Will we see more of him? He can’t really high-tail back to New York immediately either, so this one is really in the air.
Alice Kryzan: How good of a candidate was she? Will we see more of her? Would we like to? I have little to no information about her.
Chris Rothfuss: the Democratic Senate candidate against Mike Enzi of Wyoming, this college instructor with chemical engineering and diplomacy experiences was in WAYYYYYY over his head. But as my mother mentioned, this guy’s got presidential-level potential, and I hope he gets somewhere. I was very receptive to his appeal for more scientists in Congress, and while we just got one more recently (Bill Foster), there’s no question that we need more.
Don Cazayoux: Unfortunately, Michael Jackson Wanted to Be Where Don Cazayoux Is, and made everyone not Happy by running as an independent and not Beating It. This caused this One Day of Cazayoux’s Life, this past Tuesday, to be Bad, because the district’s African-American voters were torn by the question of Black or White, and caused a rare election-day Thriller for Republicans this year as Bill Cassidy succeeded in letting himself say “This Seat Is Mine”. So Farewell Our Summer Love, LA-06, but let’s not Cry over it, because Cazayoux might Wanna Be Startin’ Something since he’s still got quite a bit of potential. Will You Be There for him?
Nick Lampson: A comeback kid swept back out of office, by extremely unfriendly turf that nearly elected
Snelly Dracula-Gibbr Shelly Sekula-Gibbs in write-in ballots. Will he be back for another round once we can tip Texas’s districting a bit closer back to sanity?
Larry LaRocco: does this guy have anything else he can do? Will he wait until Risch really screws it up? Or can he do something else? Or is Walt Minnick the way of the future, with apologies to poor LaRocco who worked his butt off on one of the best Senate campaigns this year? (Speaking of which, what’s Larry Grant doing?)
Larry Craig: Hmm, I think we’d love to have him around! (What about other Idahoans named Larry? Is there something that really curses them to political problems?)
Debbie Cook: Seems like a quite awesome candidate…can we get her to run again in 2010?
Dan Seals: Will he be running again? Or is third time seriously not going to be the charm? What else could he do?
Elwyn Tinklenberg: How about our favorite light rail champion? How about another run against the House Anti-American Activities Committee’s lone member?
Tom Allen: I’ve heard that he kept the campaign relatively placid in order to position himself to run for governor.
Rick Noriega: Rumor has it that Hutchison wants the governorship. Is Noriega our man for the job? He ran a decent (though, according to people around here it seems, not quite stellar) campaign even though it was a serious uphill battle.
Who else do we want to see again?
On Friday, we learned that Dick Cheney will be coming to Baton Rouge to raise money for Republican hopeful Bill Cassidy on Monday.
Don’s opponent, Bill Cassidy is sitting on a war chest of $565,000, which is certain to grow after Dick comes through for him. And the lies emanating from the Cassidy campaign have already started.
Can YOU raise more money than Dick Cheney? Can you stand up for Don, who voted to increase our investment in alternative energy sources? Can you stand up for a Congressman that gets it, rather than one who believes that running against earmarks will save the economy?
No, not the King of Pop. I’m talking about state Rep. Michael Jackson (“D”), who’s running as an Independent with an official campaign strategy of taking as many African-American votes away from Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux as possible. Jackson insists that such a strategy will allow him to sneak up the middle and win in November, but at only 9% in the polls, such a scenario is beyond dubious.
As of August 17th, Jackson only had $12,600 on-hand. That’s peanuts. But it’s still worth asking: who’s giving him the peanuts?
Well, a significant share ($6,900) came from developer Lane Grigsby, a man who spent tens of thousands of dollars on his own attack ads and mailers against Cazayoux in May, and from two of his relatives. Grigsby’s motive for bankrolling Jackson is pretty sickeningly transparent — he doesn’t want Jackson to win; he just wants to satisfy his desire to see Cazayoux lose.
That sort of thing is messed up, but it’s not as messed up as this contribution that Jackson collected on July 26th. Yes, you read that correctly: Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield (NC-01) sent Jackson a $500 check from his campaign committee two weeks after he entered the race as an independent. Let me repeat this: G.K. Butterfield, a Democrat in the House of Representatives, donated $500 to help defeat Don Cazayoux, a fellow Democrat.
Pardon me for saying so, but that’s pretty fucked up.
Well, we’ve seen some race-baiting and outright lies by Republican Party operatives in ads over the last two days. I guess they thought that since Don is a Democrat, he would shrivel up into the fetal position, and whine. Think again. It’s not 2004, but 2008. Democrats today stand up and fight what we all know is right:
Help keep this ad on the air right up until Election Day (May 3rd) by donating here.
The DCCC has filed a second complaint against the NRCC and Freedoms Watch for:
- Running a political attack ad that directly and illegally advocates the defeat of a Democratic candidate AND
- failing to disclose the names of the donors funding that ad
They’ve even made a video outlining their case:
It seems that everyone is supporting Don Cazayoux in the contest for Louisiana's sixth congressional district– even the incoming president of the College Republicans at Louisiana State University. Smoot Carter, a junior at LSU, announced his support for Cazayoux at a news conference last Thursday, prompting Louisiana Federation of College Republicans Chairman Rudy Perciful Jr. to ask Carter to resign. Republican candidate Woody Jenkins' past includes support for the notorious bigot David Duke, a controversy that appears to have influenced Carter's decision.
“I decided to support Don Cazayoux, and felt that the 1,600 students I represent in the College Republicans could not stand for anti-Semitism,” Carter said.
Sounds like more good news for our side!
Aight, y’all … in less than month, voters will head back to the polls and decide which candidate best represents Louisiana values. Don Cazayoux’s campaign is putting the final touches on their sprint to the finish and they need our help to put them over the top. It’s time to get their message out and make sure all the voters know that Don will stand up for Louisiana families.
Don has promised to stand up for Louisiana’s middle class families by fighting to provide access to high quality, affordable health care, while at the same time making it easier for small businesses to provide health care to their employees. He’s also committed to keeping the lower tax rates for middle class families, so they can keep what they earn, and reinvest it right here in Louisiana.
CQ Quarterly called this race a “No Clear Favorite,” which is astonishing, as this district has been represented by a Republican for the last 30+ years. Even the Cook Political Report called a Cazayoux-Jenkins matchup “a perfect storm for Democrats”:
Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites – moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins – would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.
Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district’s GOP base.
Let’s set a goal of $10,000 from the netroots. Right now, Don’s raised $60,810 from 110 donors over at ActBlue.
Let’s make it $70,810 in 7 days. I know we can do that.