Tag: 2Q 2008

In our series of SSP Cash Power Rankings, we previously looked at House challengers running against incumbents and the most competitive Senate races. Now it’s time to close the triangle and look at the cash-on-hand competitiveness of candidates running in open seat House races.

The one race that we’ve left out is MO-09. Due to a large primary field without a clear front-runner on both sides, that race would be difficult to place on our chart. In other races with undecided primaries, we’ve either included multiple candidates (e.g. WY-AL, NY-26, LA-04), or have decided to go with the clear front-runner only. The top-ranked race here is a special case, as Jamshad Wyne is the only GOP candidate to file a fundraising report in NY-13 so far — we don’t consider him to be the front-runner of anything (except for the loser’s sweepstakes, perhaps), but he was our only choice.

Just as we did for the House race scene (and as we did last quarter), we present our rankings according to the SSP Cash Power Index for competitive senate races. The main difference is that we include open seats in this chart; where there is no incumbent senator, the incumbent party candidate is used as a stand-in.

Note that the number of races on this list is a lot smaller than last time; that’s because some folks have lost primaries, and also because we’ve left off the races which, at this point, are not competitive. So while it might look like Rick Noriega, say, has jumped a bunch, that’s at least in part because the likes of Greg Fischer and Tony Raimondo aren’t around anymore. Also, Tom Udall was previously ranked twice because he faced two primary opponents at the time.

UPDATE: Chart updated to reflect inclusion of KS-Sen.

It’s time. Just as we did after the first quarter, we’ve rounded up and ranked the top 75 non-open seat House races according to the SSP Cash Power Index — a metric designed to measure cash-on-hand competitiveness. We divide a challenger’s cash-on-hand by the size of the incumbent’s war chest to gauge the financial gap between candidates.

Let’s have a look at where we stand after the second quarter. You’ll notice that eight of the top ten challengers are Democrats, and the top-ranked Republican is Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt. 47 of the top 75 challengers are Democrats while 27 are Republicans. A lone independent makes the chart for the first time:

*Estimate.

This is it — our final 2Q teaser round-up before the main event. Tomorrow night at midnight is the deadline for candidates to file their fundraising reports with the FEC, and we’ll round-up all the interesting numbers in our epic quarterly chart. Also on tap for this week are SSP’s 2Q Cash Power Rankings for all the most competitive House and Senate races as well as our updated race ratings. Stay tuned.

MN-03:

     Ashwin Madia (D): ~$650K raised (rumored) $693K raised; $738K CoH (press release)

If true, that’s an absolutely stunning haul for Madia. When we get confirmation, we’ll post it.

UPDATE: I just received the press release, and Madia had a stunningly successful quarter with nearly 700K raised. I’ve updated the link above to direct to the actual filing.

PA-04:

     Jason Altmire (D-inc): $456K raised; $1.57M CoH

     Melissa Hart (R): $299K raised; $625K CoH

PA-10:

     Chris Carney (D-inc): $360K raised; $1.15M CoH

     Chris Hackett (R): $368K raised + $250K loan; $267K CoH

PA-11:

     Lou Barletta (R): >$330K raised; $320K CoH

NE-02:

     Lee Terry (R-inc): $249K raised; $617K CoH

     Jim Esch (D): >$204K raised

DE-AL:

     Jerry “Possum” Northington (D): $19K raised; $10K CoH

FL-15:

     Paul Rancatore (D): $6K raised; $5K CoH

TX-10:

     Larry Joe Doherty (D): $247K raised; $260K CoH (press release)

OR-Sen:

     Jeff Merkley (D): $1.42M raised; $560K CoH (press release)

CO-Sen:

     Mark Udall (D): $2.04M raised; $3.96M CoH

OH-16:

     Mary Jo Kilroy: $370K raised; $1.16M CoH

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars | Attack of the 50’… | …Glorious 2Q Reports of Raising | The Incredibly Strange Creatures… | Honey, I Shrunk the…

NH-Sen:

     Jeanne Shaheen (D): >$1.6M raised

     John Sununu (R-inc): >$5M CoH

NH-02:

     Paul Hodes (D-inc): >$250K raised; $980K CoH

TX-07:

     John Culberson (R-inc): $390K raised; $550K CoH

     Michael Skelly (D): $412K raised + $200K personal donation; >$1M CoH

NC-Sen:

     Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): $1.7M raised; $2.7M CoH

Dole’s cash-on-hand has actually decreased since her pre-primary filing in mid-April, when she had $3.2M in the bank. A couple of statewide ads later, and now she’s down to $2.7M. Democrat Kay Hagan has $1.2M in the bank, so the financial edge here is not that fearsome.

NJ-03:

     Chris Myers (R): $249K raised; $155K CoH

Compared to Adler’s stellar pace, this is just not impressive at all.

PA-18:

     Steve O’Donnell (D): $43K raised; $114K CoH

SC-01:

     Henry Brown, Jr. (R-inc): $234K raised; $1.34M CoH

NC-11:

     Carl Mumpower (R): $22K raised; $906.90 CoH

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars | Attack of the 50’… | …Glorious 2Q Reports of Raising | The Incredibly Strange Creatures…

LA-Sen:

     Mary Landrieu (D-inc): >$1.5M raised; $5.4M CoH

The John Kennedy campaign is now claiming that they outraised Landrieu by a hair ($1.51M), after previously claiming to have brought in $1.48M in the second quarter.

MN-Sen:

     Al Franken (D): $2.26M raised; $4M CoH

     Norm Coleman (R-inc): $2.35M raised; $7.2M CoH

KY-Sen:

     Mitch McConnell (R-inc): >$3M raised; $9M CoH

FL-24:

     Tom Feeney (R-inc): >$400K raised; $780K CoH

This is the second quarter in a row where Feeney has been out-hustled by Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. Nice work.

VA-10:

     Judy Feder (D): $320K raised; $812K CoH (press release)

VA-11:

     Gerry Connolly (D): $300K CoH

     Keith Fimian (R): >$1M CoH

TX-23:

     Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc): >$300K raised; $1.2M CoH

     Lyle Larson (R): $263K raised; $277K CoH

CO-02:

     Will Shafroth (D): $280K raised; $736K CoH

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars | Attack of the 50’… | …Glorious 2Q Reports of Raising

FL-24:

     Suzanne Kosmas (D): $475K raised; $925K CoH (press release)

NC-Sen:

     Kay Hagan (D): $1.6M raised; $1.2M CoH

NV-02:

     Jill Derby (D): $280K raised; $350K CoH

NV-03:

     Dina Titus (D): $575K raised (in two months)

CO-05:

     Hal Bidlack (D): $103K raised; $77K CoH

AZ-01:

     Ann Kirkpatrick (D): $329K raised; $669K CoH

IA-Sen:

     Tom Harkin (D-inc): $632K raised; >$4M CoH

NJ-07:

     Linda Stender (D): <$500K raised; $1.2M CoH

UPDATE:

FL-13:

     Vern Buchanan (R-inc): >$600K raised; $1.5M CoH

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars | Attack of the 50’…

(Updated with IL-11 numbers)

LA-Sen:

     John Kennedy (R): $1.48M raised; $2.7M CoH

MN-02:

     Steve Sarvi (D): $146K raised; $95K CoH

     John Kline (R): ~$166K raised $240K raised; $645K CoH

MN-03:

     Erik Paulsen (R): $600K raised; $1.1M CoH

NJ-03:

     John Adler (D): $720K raised; $1.4M CoH

OH-02:

     Vic Wulsin: $307K raised; $377K CoH (via email)

IL-11:

     Marty Ozinga (R): $800K raised; $650K CoH

     Debbie Halvorson (D): $400K raised; $900K CoH

NJ-Sen:

     Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): $1.3M CoH

More as we get ’em.

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars

GA-12:

     Regina Thomas (D): $42K raised; $25K CoH (est.)

Thomas still hasn’t filed her pre-primary financial report with the FEC (which was due on the 3rd), so these estimates came straight from the candidate. Considering that Thomas’ $42K figure tracks very closely to her current total on Actblue, it’s very clear that blogs like Democrats.com and the Blue America crew are doing most of the heavy lifting for her in terms of fundraising. Not a great sign, but it wouldn’t be wise to write off her chances in next week’s primary.

NY-25:

     Dan Maffei (D): ~$470K raised; >$950K CoH

LA-01:

     Jim Harlan (D): $500K personal donation $70K raised + $525K personal loan; $554K CoH

AZ-01:

     Ann Kirkpatrick (D): “significantly” >$260K raised

AZ-03:

     Bob Lord (D): >$220K raised

NY-10:

     Kevin Powell (D): ~$100K CoH

IL-10:

     Mark Kirk (R-inc): >$900K raised; $2.85M CoH

     Dan Seals (D): $635K raised; $1.17M CoH

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised…

NM-Sen:

     Tom Udall (D): $2.1 million raised

IL-10:

     Dan Seals (D): $635K raised (press release)

MN-01:

     Brian Davis (R): $292K raised + $100K loan; $377K CoH

     Tim Walz (D-inc): $430K raised; $1.2 million CoH

VA-Gov:

     Brian Moran (D): $1.4 million raised; $800K CoH (since 1/1)

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying…