Tag: state

Overall, last night was a great night, in spite of a few blemishes. So far my predictions in the presidential and governor races are pretty close to the actual results, my Senate predictions may be depending on how the recount in Minnesota and the Georgia runoff go, and it looks like my House predictions may have been a tad optimistic. Once the dust completely settles, I will have a more detailed analysis of my predictions vs. the actual results. For the time being, enjoy my state-by-state analysis of the 2008 election below the flip.

Alabama – Everything here panned out according to my predictions, including the surprise Democratic upset in the 2nd district that I changed to a Dem win at the last minute.

Alaska – Seems like the polls in the Senate and House races underestimated the Palin effect on the convicted Stevens and the embattled Young. My opinion of Alaska has officially gone down. It’s a beautiful state, but they elect horrible politicians!

Arizona – Everything here panned out according to my predictions, including the presidency, though I had a slight hope of an Obama upset in the wake of recent polls showing only a few points between Obama and McCain, and in AZ-03, which I believe was McCain’s House seat in the 80s.

Arkansas – I am disappointed, though not very surprised, in the presidential results here, having McCain up by only high single digits in the final prediction when he ended up taking the state in a 20-point blowout. Arkansas, like most of the Upper South, is PUMA land. Though the state and the area are trending away from us, don’t be surprised to see Hillary win here if she runs again.

California – My home state was a VERY mixed bag last night. I will give a fuller analysis of the results later on, when the few million uncounted ballots are in, since a few Assembly races and a ballot measure are still undecided. The good news first, is that Obama won in a huge landslide by about as much as I predicted, though my gut feeling was that Obama’s numbers would be closer to Kerry’s, being the first Democrat (and second overall) winning over 60% of the vote since Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. We also had some wins in the ballot measures, passing 1A (High-Speed Rail w00t!) and 2 (more humane farm animal confinement), and beating back the odious 4 (Parental Notification III). Now for the bad news: disappointing results in the House races (though McNerney won, McClintock may become the new Congressman in CA-04), state legislature (a razor-thin battle in SD-19 and being ahead in only 3 of the 7 competitive Assembly races, one of the ones we’re behind in being a Dem-held seat), and especially on Proposition 8, which outlaws same-sex marriage.

Colorado – We had yet another great year here, finally knocking off culture warrior Marilyn Musgrave, taking the open Senate seat, and Obama winning! How many people were predicting Colorado to be this blue just six years ago? Not many, and those that did would probably have been laughed out of the room. Major kudos to Dean for choosing Denver for the convention!

Connecticut – Another great state for Dems, with Obama winning by more than 20 points, and finally completing the task of shutting out Republicans in every single House seat in New England with Chris Shays outta there!

Delaware – Just a few years ago, Delaware was seen as a possible Republican pick-off with Rudy and in the open governor’s race with a tepidly popular incumbent Democrat. Now, with the Biden effect and Markell’s huge landslide (ensuring that a Democrat will succeed Biden in the Senate), it is hard to believe that was the case. Taking the state House of Representatives was the feather in the hat.

District of Columbia – Though the result was beyond predictable, I was still amazed that Obama managed over 90% here.

Florida – I nearly passed out when Obama was declared the winner here. This is the first time in recent history that the polls were actually on par with the results. I was less surprised with the House results, however. Keller and Feeney went down as predicted, as did Tim Mahoney (and good riddance! An unusual time when I want to see a Democrat out of Congress), while the Cuban incumbents prevailed.

Georgia – Not long ago, I was expecting Georgia to only get redder across the board. Surprisingly, the vote went to McCain by only a few points, as well as the odious Chambliss in the Senate race (with a runoff possible if no one gets 50%). The two Democratic Congressmen, Marshall and Barrow, who were expected to be in serious trouble prevailed by much wider margins than even I expected. I guess for them 2010 (and then redistricting in 2012 if they survive then) will be the real test.

Hawaii – I was expecting the Islands of Aloha to be Obama’s widest margin, though I was still surprised at the 45% margin obliteration Obama handed McCain here.

Idaho – McCain won by a wide margin as expected, but his coattails could not save the repugnant Bill Sali, who was picked off by Walter Minnick in ID-01, who will be the first Democratic congressman from Idaho since 1992.

Illinois – The Land of Lincoln went to Obama by a huge margin as expected, though his coattails were not long enough to drag Dan Seals in IL-10 across the finish line. Halvorson and Foster did win in their districts, though. Now the next step is who Governor Blagojevich appoints to Obama’s Senate seat.

Indiana – Perhaps the biggest upset of all is Obama’s win in this state that has been strongly Republican since the party’s founding, only going Democratic in huge Democratic landslides. Downballot, however, everything else played out according to expectations, except for the “bloody 9th”, in which Baron Hill surprisingly smashed Mike Sodrel in their fourth consecutive matchup.

Iowa – Once one of the swingiest of swing states, going narrowly for Gore and then narrowly for Bush, Obama won this corn-heavy state very handily. Tom Harkin also scored his first ever landslide, while Latham won by a wider margin than expected.

Kansas – We still have a lot of work to do here, though Obama did close the gap considerably, as Nancy Boyda in KS-02 fell to moderate Republican State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, the survivor of a bloody primary with ex-Representative Jim Ryun, who was much more conservative.

Kentucky – After Obama had secured the nomination, I initially expected Kentucky, like most other PUMA-heavy states, to be among his worst. However, Louisville probably helped him stay at Kerry-esque levels. The other competitive races went according to prediction, with Republican Senator Mitch McConnell holding on by single digits, Brett Guthrie holding the open KY-02, and Democrat John Yarmuth in KY-03 brushing off a rematch with the Republican he unseated, Anne Northup.

Louisiana – With many Democratic voters displaced by Hurricane Katrina, McCain improved upon Bush by a few points. Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu won her third term by a close margin, like her other two elections, though this time she will not go into a runoff. Corrupt Congressman Bill Jefferson is headed for another term in LA-02, which is based in New Orleans; the winner in the open LA-04 will be determined after a December runoff. Another major disappointment happened in LA-06, with black independent candidate Michael Jackson playing the role of spoiler and causing Democrat Don Cazayoux’s loss to Bill Cassidy.

Maine – Nothing special. Exactly as my formulas predicted, Obama and Republican Senator Susan Collins won in landslides.

Maryland – Probably the state that best fits Obama, he won by a very comfortable 20%+ margin on par with California’s as expected. The 1st congressional district on the Eastern Shore, open because the incumbent moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest was beaten in the primary, was up in the air for a few days after the election, was finally won by the Democrat, Frank Kratovil, who got Gilchrest’s endorsement.

Massachusetts – Uneventful. Landslides for Obama and all 10 representatives. Surprisingly, no Republican stepped up to challenge Niki Tsongas, who barely won a special election just a year ago.

Michigan – Once considered a possible Democratic loss, Michigan came out for Obama and Democrats big-time, with Obama and Senator Carl Levin winning in landslides, and Democrats knocking off two Republican congressmen, one of which beat a moderate Republican in the primary last time.

Minnesota – Like 2004 and 2006, this too was expected to be a great year for Democrats in Minnesota, but the results fell short of expectations. Obama improved upon Kerry, though not by much in the outstate areas. The Senate race between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken was expected to be the closest Senate race in the country, and still is as the result still has yet to be called and is going into a recount. On the House front, Democrats came disappointingly short in winning the Republican-held open seat in a moderate suburban Minneapolis district, and in unseating nutball Michele Bachmann in her not-as-conservative district.

Mississippi – Obama improved upon Kerry, but not by much, and the special Senate election ended up falling into Republican quasi-incumbent Roger Wicker’s hands despite a stronger-than-usual challenge from former governor Ronnie Musgrove, who’s campaign collapsed at the last minute. Good news, though, Democrat Travis Childers won reelection to a full House term.

Missouri – Once again, Missouri was a battleground state as everyone expected. If you are wondering which state in the US gave major victories to both parties, look no further than Missouri. Of the candidates this year, Obama was the worst Dem, though Missouri usually goes Democratic in bad economic times, while McCain was the best Repub and was expected to win until he chose Palin, so it is no surprise that polls towards the end were tied. McCain ended up winning by an extremely slim margin, making this presidential election the first since 1956 that Missouri did not vote for the winner. The two House districts that were expected to be close, the 6th and 9th, ended up staying in GOP hands, though the latter was closer than expected. In the statewide races, Democrats won them all except for the Lieutenant Governor, where moderate Republican Peter Kinder held on in another close race. Democrat Jay Nixon crushed Congressman Kenny Hulshof in the open governor’s race, overperforming traditional Democratic numbers in the heavily Republican southwestern corner of the state in the Ozark Mountains while underperforming in the north of the state due to Hulshof having represented part of that area in Congress. Democrats also took the open Treasurer and Attorney General offices, while Democrat Robin Carnahan won reelection as Secretary of State in a landslide.

Montana – Having gone Republican by over 20 points in the last two elections, Montana was one of the last states to call its presidential results, which stayed with McCain, but only by 3%. As expected, Democrats Brian Schweitzer and Max Baucus won reelection to the Governorship and Senate respectively in landslides.

Nebraska – For the first time ever, a state that splits its electoral votes did so, with Obama taking the 2nd congressional district, based in Omaha! Unfortunately, the House race did not follow a similar path. Though the margin presidentially was less than 2004, McCain still won comfortably, as did Republican Mike Johanns in the open Senate seat.

Nevada – What was once a strongly red state not that long ago, and is a neighbor to McCain’s own home state to boot, has gone for Obama by double-digits and turned away Republican Congressman John Porter for Democrat Dina Titus in a suburban Vegas House district.

New Hampshire – Nope, the Democratic tsunami from 2006 was not a fluke. Obama won by double digits, Governor John Lynch crushed another Republican, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen knocked off incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu, and Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter rode the wave in with Obama, Lynch, and Shaheen.

New Jersey – Obama and Senator Frank Lautenberg won comfortably as expected, as did John Adler in the Democratic-leaning 3rd congressional district. Linda Stender fell further short in the marginal open 7th district than she did in 2006.

New Mexico – Another great state for Democrats, with them taking the state’s electoral votes, the open Senate seat, and both open Republican-held districts (including the conservative southern New Mexico district) by landslide margins. Thank you so much, Governor Richardson. THANK YOU!!! ¡Muchas, muchas, MUCHAS gracias, Señor Richardson!

New York – Everything played out here according to predictions, with Obama winning in a landslide and Democrats taking the 13th, 25th, and 29th districts while holding the 20th. The 26th was disappointing (but not surprising after the crazy primary), as was the 24th, where freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri won by a surprisingly small margin after winning by a wider margin just two years ago.

North Carolina – What an amazing turnaround for Democrats in this Upper South state that seemed to be slipping further out of our grasp! Obama was finally declared the winner Friday, Beverly Perdue held off a strong challenge from moderate Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory to hold the open governorship and become the first female governor in the state, and in a dramatic upset, Kay Hagan defeated Elizabeth Dole! Democratic success in the Tar Heel State did not stop here, though. The 8th congressional district, out in NASCAR country, turned away controversial incumbent Robin Hayes for populist Democrat Larry Kissell. Welcome to the Democratic Party, NASCAR Dads!

North Dakota – Though polls showed Obama within range here in this sugar/ethanol-heavy state, McCain ended up pulling off a win here. Also, according to predictions, Republican Governor John Hoeven won in a huge landslide.

Ohio – I was thrilled when the networks called Obama the winner here. No Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. The margin did become uncomfortably small as the night wore on, but Obama held on in the end. On the House front, Democrats picked off Republican seats in OH-01 (Cincinnati) and OH-16 (next to the Cleveland area). Mean Jean Schmidt held on in the suburban Cincy-based 2nd district, and the Columbus-based 15th is still too close to call, though Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is slightly behind.

Oklahoma – No surprises. McCain won big. Inhofe won big.

Oregon – After being a cliffhanger in the last two elections, Obama won big here, and his coattails probably helped Democrat Jeff Merkley edge out moderate Republican Senator Gordon Smith. Democrats also comfortably held the open 5th House district.

Pennsylvania – Once thought to be McCain’s best shot at picking off a Kerry state, Pennsylvania ended up giving the Democrats another great year. Obama won in a landslide, we picked off the 3rd district while giving Jason Altmire in the 4th, Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, and John Murtha in the 12th another term. We left Bob Roggio in the 6th for dead against incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach, and Gerlach only won with 52%. Seems our best chance to take out Gerlach will at the soonest be 2012, if we can redistrict him into more Democratic turf.

Rhode Island – Landslides for Democrats all across the board.

South Carolina – Turnout among blacks improved here, cutting McCain’s margin to half of Bush’s, but it wasn’t enough to drag Democratic candidates in the Senate race or the 1st or 2nd districts across the finish line.

South Dakota – Though McCain won the state, Obama improved Democratic numbers in the east of the state. Tim Johnson also won his first easy reelection to the Senate, and a less draconian abortion ban also went down.

Tennessee – Probably the heart of PUMA-land. Though Obama won strongly in Memphis and Nashville, which saved him from doing worse than Kerry, he got clobbered everywhere else in the state. Republican Senator Lamar Alexander also won in a huge landslide.

Texas – Without a native son on the ballot, Texas has shown its true numbers this year, with McCain and Cornyn both winning by margins in the lower teens. In the House races, the 22nd was a disappointing, but not surprising, defeat for Nick Lampson. We never expected Lampson to hold this seat long-term, and the true justice from the DeLay-mander overturn was in the 23rd, where Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, who was also a victim (though in the primary) won in a surprise upset in 2006 and held on this year. There was buzz on the 7th and 10th districts being competitive, but they ended up staying Republican in the end. A point of concern is the 17th district, where incumbent Democrat Chet Edwards held on by just 7 points, much less than expected and much less than his 2006 margin.

Utah – As expected, McCain won big here, though Obama picked up a couple of counties, a feat neither Gore nor Kerry were able to accomplish.

Vermont – Obama’s second-best state.

Virginia – Another state that was unfriendly Democratic turf just a little while ago, gave Democrats wins all across the board, handing Obama its electoral votes, handing ultra-popular former governor Mark Warner a landslide victory in the open Senate race, and handing two House seats, Virginia Beach-based VA-02 and NOVA-based VA-11, to the Democrats. A third House seat has the potential to flip as well, with VA-05 not yet called.

Washington – So far, Obama won handily, Democratic governor Christine Gregoire won a rematch against Dino Rossi, who she beat in an incredibly close nailbiter by only 133 votes and after recounts. In the 8th congressional district, Democrat Darcy Burner is ahead of Republican incumbent Dave Reichert by a tiny margin, and the outcome will likely not be decided for a while because of Washington’s vote-by-mail tradition.

West Virginia – Another PUMA state, West Virginia gave McCain a similar margin that it gave Bush in 2004, meaning the state trended dramatically Republican presidentially since the national margin shifted from a +2 Bush margin to +6 Obama margin. Some good for us, though, Democrats Joe Manchin and Jay Rockefeller landslid to another term in the governorship and Senate respectively. There was buzz in the 2nd House district about Democrat Anne Barth possibly taking down incumbent Republican Shelley Moore Capito, but that buzz ended up going nowhere.

Wisconsin – Hard to believe this state was the closest Democratic win just a mere four years ago. Now, the state has gone Democratic by double digits and gave incumbent Democratic congressman Steve Kagen another term.

Wyoming – This state was a minor disappointment. Wyoming was not expected to go as Republican as its neighbors Idaho and Utah, as well as Oklahoma, but results show it may be the most Republican state. The Senate races, one of which was up in a special election, went heavily Republican as expected, and Democrat Gary Trauner, who came within one point of unseating controversial Republican incumbent Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (who retired this year) fell further short against Republican former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis.

So overall, my expectations of Democrats on the national level pretty much played out, with an occasional disappointment here and there. Back home in California, though, was mostly another story. My fuller analysis of elections there will come later on when all the votes are in.

For the second consecutive election cycle, Democrats had much to celebrate. We won the largest Presidential election mandate in 20 years, we gained seats in the Senate even though we didn’t get to the filibuster-proof majority, and have won an additional 20 seats in the House, give or take a couple of close calls. Obama’s likely 364 electoral vote tally easily bested by prediction of 291, while my Senate seat pickup prediction of seven now looks optimistic, but my cautious prediction of 17 House seat pickups looks pretty close.

As for my two broader-themed predictions, it was a split decision. I had guessed that “moral values” would once again shock the world by emerging as the second-most important concern of voters going to the polls yesterday. It wasn’t even in the top four. On the other hand, I was laughed out of the room by numerous people when suggesting that Ralph Nader would overperform his 2004 numbers as a protest vote for alot of older Democrats who just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a black man. But I was vindicated on that one as Nader exceeded 2004 margins in just about every state where he was on the ballot. As for the exit polls, they appeared to be even worse than those of 2004. Most of the close races showed huge Obama victories in the exit polls while even many red states looked to be breathtakingly close based on erroneous exit poll data.

State by state thoughts below the fold….

Alabama–In the Presidential race, I was kind of surprised this wasn’t worse. Alabama’s black population is below 30%, so I figured McCain’s margins would be epic, but he actually underperformed Bush four years ago. And winning Jefferson County (Birmingham) was a nice victory for Obama. I also can’t argue with the way the Congressional races turned out. I never would have thought Bobby Bright would be able to close this deal in his crimson red district, but he eked it out, while Parker Griffith hung onto a tough seat in AL-05 as well.

Alaska–Wow, what can you say about this place other than Palin, Stevens, Young and all their cohorts in crime at the ballot box deserve each other. While there’s a substantial absentee vote hanging out there that could yet unseat Ted Stevens, it seems pretty certain that Don Young will be back in Congress for two more years. Alaska is becoming another Florida, where any favorable poll needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Every poll showed Tony Knowles leading Lisa Murkowski in the 2004 Senate race yet Murkowski won by five points. Now there’s a very good chance a convicted felon may have overcome a 22-point poll deficit in eight days to keep a Senate seat that his own party’s leader said he was gonna boot from the caucus. What a surreal place!

Arizona–Close polls notwithstanding, McCain pulled ahead in the end as expected, yet still underperformed Bush’s 2004 numbers. The Congressional races went as predicted, with Democrats Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, and Giffords winning easily and Republican Shadegg holding on in AZ-03, a race I never thought would go our way.

Arkansas–Looking at last night’s Presidential numbers, I can say without hesitation that I’m more disappointed in Arkansas than any other state. The polls showed a double-digit edge for McCain, but never would I have expected a 20-point McCain romp and double-digit victories for McCain in most 2004 Kerry counties. Hard to assume this outcome was about anything other than race, even in a state where the racial polarization in political affiliation had traditionally been much less significant than in the rest of the South. Perhaps the Southern Republican realignment will soon consume its last remaining holdout of Arkansas now that the Democrats had the audacity to elect a black President.

California–It’s easy to dwell on the disappointment of the Prop 8 hate measure’s narrow passage, but Obama’s 23-point victory in the state that brought us Ronald Reagan is nothing short of incredible, and appears to be running up the score of the popular vote for Obama as the state’s final numbers come in. Obama came within four points of winning Orange County. That’s amazing. Less impressive were the Congressional race outcomes. While McNerney held on, neither Nick Leibham or Debbie Cook prevailed in their longshot races even though Obama was overperforming at the top of the ticket. It’s still too close to call in the Brown-McClintock race, but McClintock narrowly leads. I was always suspicious of the prospect of a Democrat winning a district this mercilessly red now matter how perfect the circumstances.

Colorado–An epic blue tidal wave sweeps Colorado. This state’s transformation has been one of the most rapid I’ve ever seen, and bodes well for Ken Salazar’s ability to hold his Senate seat two years from now in what will likely be a tough, defensive climate. Who would have thought back in 2002 that Colorado would be this blue only six years later? Obama won comfortably, Mark Udall won the Senate seat by even more and voters in CO-04 finally expired culture war bomb thrower Marilyn Musgrave by an incredibly lopsided margin.

Connecticut–Another good night for Democrats in Connecticut with Obama trouncing McCain by more than 20 points in the Presidential race and helping Democrats score a complete blue sweep of New England Congressional districts with the unseating of Chris Shays in CT-04. I’m assuming a heavy black turnout in Bridgeport is what did Shays in.

Delaware–A huge Biden bounce turns Delaware as blue as Massachusetts and New York in this year’s Presidential race. Still interesting that the state’s southernmost rural county went McCain though. Also nice to have elected a Democratic Governor in Delaware to fill Biden’s Senate seat.

Florida–For the first time in living memory, pre-election polls in Florida actually played out as expected with Obama winning a small but significant two-point victory. The margin of difference came from Tampa-St. Petersburg and especially Orlando, a region that has trended dramatically blue in the last 10 years (Bob Dole won Orange County in 2006), and a fast-growing Hispanic population is credited for improved Democratic margins in the Orlando area. I held out some hope to see a few heavily black rural counties in northern Florida go blue this year, but apparently whites voted more Republican and offset higher black turnout as occurred in much of the South. I can’t say I was disappointed with Florida’s Congressional races either as I never expected either of the Diaz-Balart voters to be unseated in South Florida. On the bright side, once again in Orlando, Democrats Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas unseated Republican incumbents. Predictably, slimeball Democrat Tim Mahoney was unseated (good riddance!). My only surprise was that Mahoney still managed to get 40% of the vote.

Georgia–Early numbers made the Presidential race look like an epic McCain blowout, but Obama closed the gap to nearly five points as the late returns rolled in. That’s pretty impressive considering Bush won this state by 16 points four years ago. And the last I saw, Saxby Chambliss was just below 50% in the Senate race and thus looking at a runoff next month. I don’t give Jim Martin very good odds of toppling Chambliss in that setting, but it was nonetheless an impressive feat in a state Democrats had completely written off several years ago. Both of the Democratic House members rumored to be endangered (Jim Marshall and David Scott) held on easily, in Marshall’s case much easier than I had expected.

Hawaii–Hard to believe this was a battleground state four years ago. In 2008, it was Obama’s best state in the nation, giving him more than 70% of the vote. He had a certain homefield advantage here, but the margin was still impressive.

Idaho–As election nights go for Democrats in Idaho, this can only be described as an incredibly successful won. Obama inched his way up to 36% in the Presidential race, while noxious Republican dunderhead Bill Sali was narrowly unseated by Democrat Walt Minnick in ID-01, a race I doubted would turn. Now Minnick is the proud owner of the most Republican Congressional district in the country represented by a Democrat.

Illinois–Naturally, Obama kicked butt in his home state and won by about 25 points, but didn’t have the coattails to drag along Dan Seals in IL-10 as I predicted (in contrast to Minnick, I expect IL-10 is now the bluest district in the nation represented by a Republican). On the bright side, Debbie Halvorson easily picked up the IL-11 open seat for the Dems and Dem Bill Foster easily held on in IL-14, Denny Hastert’s old district.

Indiana–I always thought Obama was wise to put forth such an effort in Indiana for the benefit of future Democrats, but never entertained the idea that he would win the state outright until I started seeing those early returns roll in last night, with McCain barely managing a lead before even the first returns from Indianapolis, Bloomington, or Lake County rolled in. Now, Indiana is a blue state, swinging an incredible 22 points towards Democrats since the last Presidential election. In the House, I never expected Mark Souder to be unseated in his hard-red district, but was pleased to see Baron Hill finally driving a stake through the heart of Mike Sodrel in IN-09 with his double-digit landslide.

Iowa–Another deeply blue year for my current state of residence with a solid nine-point Obama victory that cut well into the Norman Rockwell farm country of western Iowa. Tom Harkin had his first true landslide in the Senate race, laying waste to a clueless fourth-rate GOP challenger and winning 94 of 99 Iowa counties. I was originally bullish about Becky Greenwald in IA-04, but could feel the oxygen getting sucked out of her campaign in the closing weeks as Latham badly outspent her. I was nonetheless shocked at the 21-point thumping Greenwald got, underperforming Latham’s invisible Democratic challenger Shelden Spencer in 2006. Iowa’s other House Democrats all won double digit victories, with Leonard Boswell once again underperforming everybody else on the ballot. The comically awful western Iowa Republican Steve King prevailed for a fourth term as predicted.

Kansas–Obama did narrow traditional Republican margins in Kansas a bit, but still lost by 15 points. I predicted Nancy Boyda would have a hard time hanging on in KS-02 and was unfortunately proven correct as she lost by a significant five points. Kansas continues to be a very long-term project.

Kentucky–Louisville almost by itself saved Obama from badly underperforming Kerry in Kentucky. I was skeptical that Obama could prevail in east Kentucky, even in counties like Floyd and Knott where Kerry got more than 60% of the vote, and was unfortunately proven correct. One wonders if McCain’s ninth-inning cheap shot about coal further suppressed Obama’s numbers in Appalachain coal country. Nonetheless, it was heartening to see four east Kentucky counties go Obama, along with Fayette County (Lexington) and a couple unexpected rural counties across the Ohio River from Indiana. The Senate race played out as expected with McConnell prevailing by a small but significant margin, while Yarmuth predictably hung on in KY-03 and Brett Guthrie predictably kept the KY-02 open seat in GOP hands.

Louisiana–Unlike Arkansas, I expected a 20-point McCain blowout in Louisiana. I was really starting to get worried about Mary Landrieu by about 10 p.m. last night as she clung to a few thousand vote lead, but she didn’t better than expected in Jefferson County (suburban New Orleans) and went on to win convincingly. In the House, I thought those polls showing huge leads for Don Cazayoux in LA-06 seemed to good to be true given that he would assuredly be hemorrhaging black support to Independent candidate Jackson. Cazayoux lost by eight points, and of course Jackson was the difference. The open seat for LA-04 won’t be settled until a December runoff, but I think it’s probably an uphill fight for Democrat Paul Carmouche.

Maine–Polarized double-digit blowouts for Obama in the Presidential race and Republican Senator Susan Collins, both predicted even though Collins’ margin was even larger than expected. Not much to report here.

Maryland–This is a demographically perfect state for Obama, and he delivered with a 23-point victory. The complicated MD-01 open seat race is still officially undecided, but Democrat Frank Kratovil holds a 1,000-vote lead in this uber-Republican district where he most certainly didn’t get much in the way of coattails from Obama.

Massachusetts–Not much to see here. Obama won by about 25 points and all the state’s all Democratic Congressional delegation held on once again.

Michigan–Hard to imagine just a month ago that Michigan was deemed likely to be one of the nation’s biggest Presidential battlegrounds. It’s definitely clear why McCain chose to pull out of the state, having lost it to Obama in a geographically widespread 16-point landslide, particularly impressive given the generations-old racial polarization in metropolitan Detroit. And even though the GOP drew up a Congressional map in 2001 that seemed like a nearly impenetrable firewall, the Democrats managed to crack it by unseating two Republican incumbents in MI-07 and MI-09, the latter of which ended up being a landslide defeat for long-time suburban Detroit incumbent Joe Knollenberg.

Minnesota–My home state certainly delivered for Obama last night, but nonetheless disappointed on several fronts. I was struck that Obama’s growth in outstate Minnesota was much less than the growth seen in its neighboring states. Most disappointing is that the asshats of the Minnesota Independence Party carried on their now decadelong tradition of inadvertantly electing Republicans. This year, it’s very likely that the IP cost the Democrats no fewer than three races. Al Franken is only 500 votes behind Norm Coleman in the fiercely contested battleground Senate race and could still conceivably emerge victorious in a recount, but it’s odds-against….and it’s abundantly clear that Independent Dean Barkley got more would-be Franken votes than Coleman. There’s no guarantee that Ashwin Madia would have won the MN-03 open seat if not for David Dillon, but the race would certainly have been closer. And the most disappointing result of the night was the re-election of one of Congress’ worst members, the execrable Michelle Bachmann in MN-06, made possible by a crackpot IP candidate who scored 10% of the vote that probably would have gone to Democrat El Tinklenberg. All things considered, it was a disappointing night in Minnesota.

Mississippi–Despite a robust African-American turnout, the needle didn’t move much in Democrats’ direction in racially polarized Mississippi. Obama bested Kerry’s performance by about five points, but Senate candidate Ronnie Musgrove was still handed a 10-point defeat at the hands of quasi-incumbent Republican Roger Wicker. I didn’t figure Wicker would win this race, but I figured it would be closer than this. On the bright side, Travis Childers won another double-digit victory in the very conservative MS-o1 race.

Missouri–The only thing worth celebrating in Missouri was a landslide election of a new Democratic Governor. It appears as though John McCain will prevail by about 6,000 votes in the Presidential race, verifying that Missouri is now more Republican than the country (who would have though 20 years ago that Indiana would be a blue state and Missouri a red state?). As I expected, both of the longshot House races went to the Republicans, narrowly in the case of Blaine Luetkemeyer for the MO-09 open seat, but in a crushing landslide in M0-06.

Montana–I’m fairly impressed that Obama managed to make Montana a three-point race. Polls early and late in the election cycle suggested it was possible, but only a month ago it looked like another GOP landslide in the works.

Nebraska–While Obama narrowed the gap by a good 10 points in the Presidential race, McCain still prevailed by a substantial 16-point margin and brought Republican Congressional candidates along for the ride. Scott Kleeb, one of the Democrats’ most impressive candidates, fell woefully short to Mike Johanns in the open Senate race while Lee Terry held on in his Omaha-based House district. Nebraska stays red.

Nevada–Pretty much everybody expected Obama would win Nevada, but could anybody have foreseen Nevada would end up bluer than Minnesota or Iowa? If this trend continues, it spells huge trouble for Republicans in a state that was a nearly uncontested GOP stronghold only 20 years ago. Republican Dean Heller hung on as predicted in his upstate NV-02 race, but Democrat Dina Titus took out incumbent GOPer John Porter in the suburban Vegas district.

New Hampshire–The blue tidal wave that crashed upon New Hampshire in 2006 was no fluke, with Obama scoring a huge double-digit win, taking along Democratic Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen and endangered incumbent Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter along for the ride with their own impressive victories.

New Jersey–Not much surprising in the Presidential and Senate races, with Obama and Lautenberg winning by fairly predictable double-digit margins. In the two battleground open seats in the House, it was a split decision, with Democrat John Adler narrowly taking the Republican-held NJ-03, but Republican Leonard Lance trouncing his seemingly strong Democratic challenger in the NJ-07 race.

New Mexico–Another state where Republicans were positively overwhelmed by a dramatic Democratic tide. Four years after George Bush eked out a win here, Barack Obama went on to win by 15 points this year. And if that wasn’t enough, the state’s Congressional delegation went from 3 Republicans and 2 Democrats to 5 Democrats and zero Republicans overnight, with double-digit Democratic victories in all three contested races. Of all 50 states, the Dems probably had their best night last evening in New Mexico.

New York–As expected, a 25-point Barack Obama blowout, but the real story is the near-invisibility of the Republican Party in virtually every corner of New York. Republicans started out last evening with six members of Congressional delegation that has now been reduced to three, with two open seats in Staten Island and Syracuse swinging to the Democrat and Eric Massa toppling an incumbent Republican in the state’s reddest district. The Dems did fail to get the red-leaning NY-26 open seat after a primary that turned into a comedy of errors and freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri had a scare in his race, ekeing out a 51-49 victory in a race not expected to be close.

North Carolina–A huge Democratic year in a state that seemed to be trending hopelessly Republican just four years ago, with a dramatic defeat for incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole, an apparent narrow victory for Obama in the Presidential race, and a Democratic gubernatorial victory that was no sure thing heading into election day. And the icing on the cake was Larry Kissell’s double-digit thumping of Robin Hayes in NC-08, a race the Dems should have gotten in 2006.

North Dakota–As I said at the outset, the exit poll data was horrendous again this year. At the time of poll closing, McCain appeared poised for a 15-point blowout in North Dakota while South Dakota looked to be breathtakingly close. In the end, both states had nearly identical margins with nine-point victories for McCain. I never really expected Obama to win here, but shrinking GOP margins from 27 points to 9 is impressive nonetheless, as well as Democratic victories in Fargo and Grand Forks, which even Bill Clinton failed to pull off. Now my top priority is making sure one of my favorite Senators, Byron Dorgan, isn’t swept out of office in 2010 against potential GOP challenger John Hoeven, who was just re-elected to the Governor’s office in one of the evening’s most lopsided blowouts.

Ohio–I was heartened to see Ohio called as early as it was for Obama and early exit poll data showing a huge win, but became disappointed when I saw the returns roll in and saw that Obama’s margins were entirely the product of running up the score in the northern part of the state, yet did not move the needle much if at all in the state’s Appalachian region as I had hoped. Hard to imagine that a place as economically decimated as Steubenville, OH, could continue to lurch rightward (officially going from blue to red this year). Nonetheless, it was nice to see Obama winning Hamilton County (Cincinnati), a feat even Bill Clinton never pulled off. The Cincinnati-based OH-01 also went to a Democrat, as did the OH-16 open seat in the Canton area. Surprisingly, it looks as though Mary Jo Kilroy fell short once again in the Columbus-based OH-15. Gotta be hard for her to lose two consecutive races she was expected to win. Nonetheless, a decent night for Dems in Ohio, but just like 2006, I still felt the state could have and should have done better.

Oklahoma–My prediction was that Oklahoma would be McCain’s best state. I thought its competition would be Idaho and Utah, but it was actually Wyoming that ended up being this year’s reddest state. Still, a nearly 2-1 McCain blowout in this increasingly hopeless state which also handed one of America’s worst Senators, Jim Inhofe, a near 20-point re-election victory.

Oregon–The annoying vote-by-mail tradition of Oregon is once again lagging the process of knowing the results. Obama won in a landslide as predicted, but it’s still soon to call the hard-fought Senate race. Early reports suggested that the Portland vote was entirely in, which led me to believe incumbent Gordon Smith would hang on, but now it seems as though most of the remaining vote is in Portland, which means Democrat Jeff Merkley is probably poised for a come-from-behind victory. The Dems easily held onto the OR-05 open House seat as well.

Pennsylvania–A very strong Democratic year in Pennsylvania for the second election in a row with Obama pulling off the double-digit victory that was expected and the Dems winning all the battleground House races. John Murtha won comfortably despite his megagaffe, Paul Kanjorski surprisingly held on, along with Jason Altmire and Chris Carney. We even picked up a GOP-held seat in PA-03, while only narrowly losing PA-06, a blue district without a top-tier challenger to Jim Gerlach which is easily one of this year’s biggest recruiting failures for Dems. The only other disappointment was continuing to watch southwestern Pennsylvania slip away from Democrats, with McCain winning over the last remaining blue counties encircling Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, Obama managed to win back Cambria County (Johnstown) which went Bush in 2004.

Rhode Island–Not much to report here. Landslide victories for Obama and every other Democrat on the ballot.

South Carolina–The high black turnout was successful in cutting Bush’s 2004 margin in half to nine points, but even in this environment, Lindsey Graham won by nearly 20 points against a weak opponent and two Democratic House candidates failed to topple weak Republican incumbents. South Carolina continues to be very inhospitable terrain for Dems.

South Dakota–Despite very bullish early exit poll numbers, it was the pre-election polls that were right about South Dakota as McCain won by nine points. Nonetheless, some very impressive inroads for Obama in eastern South Dakota farm counties, as well as wins in population centers Brown County (Aberdeen) and Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls, which I certainly didn’t see coming). Tim Johnson scored his first non-nailbiter Senate victory, winning by a 25-point landslide and sweeping all but four South Dakota’s 66 counties. The double-digit defeat of South Dakota’s overreaching abortion ban was also an unexpected surprise.

Tennessee–A very ugly year in a state where ugly years are becoming a regular occurrence for Democrats. Obama’s margin was no better or worse than Kerry’s four years earlier, but only because of a very strong Obama performance in Memphis and Nashville. Elsewhere, all but one of the Yellow Dog Democrat counties of West Tennessee and Middle Tennessee went red and in most cases dramatically red. Put this state in with Oklahoma as states that have become virtual lost causes for Democrats for the foreseeable future.

Texas–Last night’s returns for both McCain and Cornyn give a more balanced assessment of where Democrats stand in the state since native son Bush wasn’t on the ballot. Both Obama and Noriega narrowed the margins to low double-digits, with dramatic improvement for Dems in heavily Hispanic counties and outright Obama victories in Dallas and Harris Counties (I would have never predicted the latter would turn this quickly). In Congressional races, Dems fell far short in the longshot TX-07 and TX-10 races, and we unfortunately lost Nick Lampson, who I was pulling for because he seems like a good man…and a good Congressman. And Chet Edwards’ soft seven-point margin against a fourth-rate opponent is a wake-up call that he’s never safe in that crimson red district.

Utah–Modest growth for Obama in America’s reddest state, yet still a near 30-point deficit. It was nice to see Obama was able to do what neither Gore or Kerry was able to do and turn two Utah counties blue.

Vermont–Second only to Hawaii for Obama’s margins, it’s hard to believe that Vermont was the most Republican state in America up until 1992.

Virginia–A great year for Democrats in one of our most unfriendly states in the last half century, with Obama winning comfortably, a landslide victory in an open Senate race, and at least two Congressional seat pickups, one in traditionally conservative Virginia Beach and one in northern Virginia. Most surprising is the still-undecided VA-05 race where Virgil Goode is currently leading by the slimmest of margins. Hopefully this Democratic momentum continues.

Washington–A huge Obama victory is thus far the only headline out of Washington this year. The vote-by-mail tradition will delay the call of another jarlid-tight House race between Burner and Reichert in WA-08, but if the vote count follows the same pattern as it did two years ago, Reichert is probably favored to hang on.

West Virginia–Another incredibly disappointing election for a state that used to be one of our most reliable. Again, the GOP’s demagoguery about coal was probably worth at least a couple of points to McCain in this state, but there was clearly more working against Obama here. As coal continues to become more controversial, it’s hard to see how this state remains in the Democratic fold at any level for much longer. The only bright spot was the state’s northeastern most county, bordering Northern Virginia, turning blue this year, suggesting that a marginal demographic shift in the panhandle could help decide a close race or two to the Democrats’ favor.

Wisconsin–I was shocked to look at the overwhelmingly blue Wisconsin county map last night, where Obama had taken more than 75% of Wisconsin’s counties and overperformed both Minnesota and Iowa. I’m not necessarily sure why Wisconsin is such friendly terrain for Obama, both in the primary and general election, but I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth and hope for continued Democratic strength in future election cycles. The only contested House race in WI-08 also went the Democrats’ way.

Wyoming–I expected better of Wyoming than last night. Polls suggested the race between Obama and McCain was only half as lopsided as the two most recent elections where native son Cheney was on the ballot, but Wyoming still emerged as McCain’s only 2-1 victory of the night while both Senate races were won in 3-1 Republican landslides and House candidate Gary Trauner, tied in the polls until last week, lost by 10 points. Looks like the GOP will continue to have one stronghold in the Rocky Mountain West.

All said, hard to imagine a much better night for Democrats than last, even though we came up short in a few places where we shouldn’t. And now, the Dems own the levers of political leadership. Getting them was the easy part. Governing well enough to keep them in the current state of financial and global crisis will definitely be the hard part.