Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)
Robin Carnahan (D): 43
Christopher Bond (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
The Great Orange Satan has started polling potential matchups for 2010, and as suspected, one potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent is Kit Bond in Missouri. Matched against possible candidate Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (member of Missouri’s preeminent political family), 22-year incumbent Bond leads by only 4 points.
Bond’s favorables are just under the 50% mark at 49/43, while the less-known Carnahan clocks in at 48/26 with 26% having no opinion, giving her a lot of room for growth. Interestingly, the only region of the state where Carnahan currently leads is the city of St. Louis; if (like Claire McCaskill in 2006) she can maintain usual Democratic margins in the urban parts of the state while holding down losses in the state’s big red middle, she can eke out the victory.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/2-4, likely voters)
Ken Salazar (D-inc): 49
John Elway (R): 38
(MoE: ±4%)
Ken Salazar (D-inc): 51
Tom Tancredo (R): 37
Research 2000 also released the first set of polls for the 2010 senate race in Colorado (diaried yesterday by safi), which at least has the potential of being the Democrats’ top vulnerability. However, Ken Salazar is looking pretty safe against two top GOP contenders. One of those contenders is polarizing bigot Tom Tancredo, whom you wouldn’t expect to get much traction, but the other one is former Broncos QB (and car dealer) John Elway, a popular if not legendary figure in Colorado. But apparently he’s lacking in the political skills department, if he’s barely running ahead of the loathsome Tancredo (and he certainly can’t blame lack of name recognition).
Former GOP Gov. Bill Owens is sometimes mentioned as a candidate, although he hasn’t taken any steps in that direction. He ended his term fairly popular and would probably fare better than either of these clowns, so it would be interesting to see a head-to-head with him included.