Quinnipiac (1/29-2/2, registered voters):
Lee Fisher (D): 42
Rob Portman (R): 27Jennifer Brunner (D): 38
Rob Portman (R): 28Lee Fisher (D): 41
Mary Taylor (R): 27Jennifer Brunner (D): 38
Mary Taylor (R): 26
(MoE: ±2.9%)Rob Portman (R): 33
Mary Taylor (R): 11
(MoE: ±5.1%)Lee Fisher (D): 18
Jennifer Brunner (D): 16
Tim Ryan (D): 14
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Quinnipiac polls a whole bunch of different permutations on the Ohio Senate race, including the primary races, and you gotta like what you see here. Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner both lead ex-Rep. and ex-OMB Director Rob Portman by double digits. The only missing element is head-to-heads involving Rep. Tim Ryan, who also seems likely to run (and they do poll him in the primary)… but judging by the similarity between Fisher and Brunner’s numbers, it seems like the candidates are running more as ‘generic D’ and ‘generic R’ right now, and he’d do just as well.
The unknowns are very high even in the general, but they’re catastrophically high in the primary heats, with the majority of the electorate in the “don’t know” camp right now. This is especially the case in the hypothetical GOP primary, where Portman (who has already committed to the race) is tested against the little-known Auditor Mary Taylor. (Taylor hasn’t publicly expressed any interest in the Senate race; discussion of her at this point seems to be limited to online GOP fanboys depressed with the drab Portman and casting about for someone Sarah Palin-esque to give them the twinkles.)
A few weeks ago, PPP tried out Fisher, Brunner, and Ryan against Portman, and Portman won all three of those tests, although not by particularly large margins. So this Q-poll, in and of itself, shouldn’t be taken as a promise of a pickup; this is going to be a hard fought race for the next two years. (H/t Leftist Addiction.)