Tag: Richard Pombo

Politico:

Rep. George Radanovich (R-Calif.) will be announcing this afternoon today that he won’t be seeking re-election, according to a senior GOP source.

His chief of staff, Ted Maness, told POLITICO the congressman would be releasing a statement at 2:00 EST, but declined to confirm that he’ll be retiring. […]

Republicans comprise 44 percent of registered voters, while Democrats make up 37 percent, and 14 percent decline to affiliate themselves with a party.

Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson, a political ally of Radanovich, is expected to run for the Republican nomination in the district.

This is the first Republican retirement of the 2010 cycle — which is kind of amazing after the mass exodus of Republicans from Congress to the retirement manors of Florida over the past two cycles. I suppose we took care of most of the low-hanging fruit.

Radanovich’s seat isn’t prime territory for a pick-up. However, although its PVI is R+9, Barack Obama dramatically improved upon the old Democratic baseline in the district, losing the CD by only 52-46 to John McCain. Compare that to John Kerry’s flattening here by a 61-38 margin four years earlier. A good deal of that shift can be attributed to the demographic changes occurring within the district, which has seen a marked increase in its minority population since 2000. Those demographic gains haven’t reached the tipping point here yet, but this district could be susceptible to a bit of nipping and tucking in the next round of redistricting in order to hasten that process.

UPDATE: Check out who Reid Wilson flags as a potential GOP contender here:

One source said Radanovich will back state Sen. Jeff Denham (R) as his replacement. CA Senate districts are actually larger than congressional districts, though Denham’s is more closely related to Rep. Dennis Cardoza’s (D) neighboring 18th district. Top GOPers had tried to convince Denham to run against Cardoza, though Radanovich’s district has a stronger GOP lean.

But Denham is unlikely to get a clean shot at the seat. Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson (R) is also likely to run, and one source suggested to ex-Rep. Richard Pombo (R), who lost his neighboring 11th district to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in ’06, may be a potential contender as well.

Needless to say, a comebacker for “Dirty Dick” Pombo would be very fun to watch.

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-19

Oh… My… Goodness!

If you thought it was hard for Jerry McNerney to unseat Pombo in 2006, just wait until 2008…
Or not, especially since the Republicans are already laying the groundwork to retake the 11th District.

So what can we do to help McNerney hold onto CA-11? What can we do to keep this area blue?

More after the flip…

I still remember what happened in the 11th last year. I remember way back when, when I wondered if it was more likely that Pete McCloskey would beat Pombo in the Republican Primary than any Democrat knocking off Pombo. Oh yes, and I still remember the Democratic Primary and the “mysterious forces” behind Steve Filson. I remember how the DCCC originally gave McNerney the cold shrug after he won the primary, and I must admit that I’m still somewhat miffed about it. However, I remember how the Republicans freaked out at the last minute, as they finally began to realize that Pombo was in deep trouble.

And despite all that happened, McNerney won by a fairly comfortable margin last November. I was excited to hear McNerney give the Democratic national radio address last month, and I was just elated to see McNerney sworn in with the rest of the Democratic majority just eighteen days ago. Everything seemed so great…

Until I saw THIS! From the Contra Costa Times:

“Why would you reward someone who broke the law? It doesn’t make sense,” says the flier, which McNerney supporters uploaded this week to the Calitics and Say No To Pombo blogs. “But that’s what Jerry McNerney wants to do. He wants to reward illegal aliens with Social Security benefits, even though they entered our country illegally.”

According to the flier, which cites an August 2006 newspaper story on the U.S. Senate’s bipartisan immigration-reform plan, the plan McNerney supports would jeopardize Social Security’s future. “If Jerry McNerney wants to let illegal aliens get Social Security, what other ideas does he have to encourage illegal aliens to break our laws?” it asks.

Already, the NRCC is back in full gear… But do they also have a candidate in mind?
From the SF Chronicle:

“There’s no way the Republicans are going to concede that seat,” said Assemblyman Guy Houston, R-San Ramon, whose district has some overlap with McNerney’s 11th Congressional District, which cuts across parts of Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and San Joaquin counties.

Houston, who is contemplating a challenge against McNerney in 2008, will be in Washington next month to talk to GOP leaders. Pombo, 46, a Tracy cattle rancher who was chairman of the House Resources Committee when he was defeated in November, has not ruled out running again.

From what I am hearing now, Houston may be a formidable opponent. He already represents many of the CA-11 voters in the State Assembly. The Republicans are already starting to cheer him on. I’ve heard that Houston sells himself as a reasonable “moderate”, though I think his voting record says something else. Oh yes, and voters in this swing district will be voting for President in 2008!

So what does this all mean for Jerry McNerney? Well, I’m hoping that all this motivates him and the Bay Area activists to work hard to get him reelected…
And hopefully, just as hard as they worked to get him elected last year! This is a purple seat that is fast trending blue, so it’s not as if Republicans have that much of an advantage in this region. This time last year, people told us that Pombo could not be taken down. Now, these same folks are telling us that McNerney cannot survive next year. All we need to do is keep up the grassroots activism, and encourage McNerney to keep in touch with his district, and I think we shouldn’t have a problem keeping CA-11 blue!

(Cross-posted at Calitics, and at and at my blog)