Tag: Rasmussen Reports

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Following its PA-Sen Democratic primary numbers released yesterday showing Congressman Joe Sestak closing the gap on recent Republican Arlen Specter, Rasmussen Reports released general election match-up numbers:

Pat Toomey (R) 48 Arlen Specter (D) 36 Other 4 Not Sure 12

Pat Toomey (R) 43 Joe Sestak (D) 35 Other 5 Not Sure 18

Two obvious takeaways here.  One, Toomey has taken the lead.  Is it discontent over the protracted health care reform debate?  Is it burgeoning discontent with Specter himself harming the Democratic brand in Pennsylvania?  And how temporary will this lead be?  Unclear.

Two, the “electability” argument in the Democratic primary has flipped.  In previous polls, Specter matched up against Toomey better than Congressman Sestak did (no doubt relying largely on Specter’s strong name ID).  In this poll, however, Congressman Sestak matches up better.  His deficit against Toomey is only 8 points (and, remember, Congressman Sestak has never run statewide, unlike Toomey, and is still working to build name recognition across the state, which should improve his numbers significantly), while Specter’s deficit against Toomey is 12 points.  This is probably due to a plummetting favorable-unfavorable rating for Specter, as Rasmussen points out; Specter’s is down to 43-54.

While the numbers against Toomey are nothing to celebrate, this poll further cements the notion that Arlen Specter would not serve Democrats well as the Party’s Senate nominee.

By the way, want integrity?  Congressman Sestak went on Fox News to promote that he is “a strong proponent of the public health care plan option.”  He’s not going to pander or sugar coat.  He’s going to fight for Democratic values everywhere.  (And you can help Congressman Sestak’s fight with a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.)

Rasmussen is showing some good news for Democrats in North Carolina – both Richard Moore and Beverly Purdue are leading Republican Pat McCrory by 4-5%.

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Richard Moore (D)	39%
Pat McCrory (R)	34%

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Beverly Perdue (D)	42%
Pat McCrory (R)	38%

This shows improvement over December’s poll:

In December, McCrory on top in both match-ups by an identical 42% to 39% margin. That survey was conducted prior to McCrory’s official announcement to run in the election.

Anyone here know how reapportionment works in North Carolina? If we maintain our hold on the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature, can we squeeze an advantage here after the 2010 Census?

Rasmussen’s latest Congressional generic poll has the Democrats only up 43%-38%.

While I think Rasmussen has been touting that 2008 will be more of a Republican year, this poll result should be a cause of a lot of worry.

We’re likely going to field fewer candidates than 2006, and the Republicans will need one less

seat after March 11 (I’m very pessimistic about

this special election).

What’s to blame?  I think it’s a combination of poor leadership, the surge (let’s admit it–it hasn’t really worked, but a brilliant political move), and the effect of consistently poor approval ratings.  You can’t escape 25% forever.

Any thoughts?