Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (1/3-9, registered voters, no trendlines):
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 44
Tom Kean Jr. (R): 34
Unsure/Neither/Other: 22Bob Menendez (D-inc): 40
Michael Doherty (R): 30
Unsure/Neither/Other: 30Bob Menendez (D-inc): 47
Kim Guadagno (R): 26
Unsure/Neither/Other: 27Bob Menendez (D-inc): 41
Joe Kyrillos (R): 29
Unsure/Neither/Other: 30Bob Menendez (D-inc): 44
John Crowley (R): 30
Unsure/Neither/Other: 27Bob Menendez (D-inc): 42
Jennifer Beck (R): 29
Unsure/Neither/Other: 29
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Local pollster Fairleigh Dickinson’s first look at the 2012 Senate race finds Bob Menendez leading his little-known Republican potential rivals by double digits, ranging from margins of 10 (against his 2006 opponent, Tom Kean Jr., and also against state Sen. Michael Doherty, who’s apparently a particular fave to the tea party types) to 19 (against current Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who may be at a low point right now since most people’s current impression of her involves her being out-of-state during the nor’easter cleanup). FDU doesn’t offer an approval rating for Menendez for some reason, but he’s polling not out of the danger zone, in the mid-40s and, as they point out, his fortunes are probably deeply tied to those of Barack Obama (who’s at 47/41) and those of the broader economy.
Public Policy Polling (1/6-9, New Jersey voters, no trendlines):
Bob Menendez (D-inc): 41
Tom Kean Jr. (R): 39
Undecided: 19Bob Menendez (D-inc): 47
Lou Dobbs (R): 35
Undecided: 18Bob Menendez (D-inc): 45
Kim Guadgano (R): 30
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4.3%)
FDU’s numbers contrast a bit with those from PPP, who find a much closer race between Menendez and Kean (although they find a similar blowout against Guadagno as with FDU). I’d commented a few weeks ago that Menendez’s approval numbers (which are 37/38 in this poll) reminded me a bit of Richard Burr’s at this point two years ago — a surprisingly large number of people don’t know him, and those who do know him feel prety “meh” about him — and I think that’s still the case here. In fact, I’ll predict the whole cycle here may parallel NC-Sen ’10, with polls continuing to show definite incumbent weakness but the state’s lean (plus a likely underfunded opponent) probably giving the incumbent a decent win in the end.
Public Policy Polling (1/6-9, New Jersey voters, no trendlines):
Cory Booker (D): 42
Chris Christie (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4.3%)
As a throw-in, PPP also looks at the 2013 gubernatorial race (it’s only two and three-quarters years away!). While if you read only the rightosphere, you’d think that Chris Christie was ready to not only graduate from being governor right now but even to skip that whole Presidency business and move straight on to running for Galactic Emperor, here in the real world, things are a little less clear-cut. The blustery and mass-transit-destroying Christie only manages a tie with Cory Booker, the attention-grabbing Democratic mayor of Newark. Christie’s still above water with 48/45 approvals, but it’s a Dem-leaning state and Booker has nothing but upside at this point with 46/16 favorables.