In recent days, there has been some talk of attempting to recall WI Gov. Scott Walker over his attempts to eliminate collective bargaining rights for public employees. However, by law, Walker could not become the subject of a recall effort until 2012, and it would take over 500,000 signatures to put the issue on the ballot. (Wisconsin’s total population is just 5.65 million.)
But the state senate is elected in alternating cycles, and eight Republicans – all of those in even-numbered districts, i.e., who last ran in 2008 – are eligible for recall now. That’s state Sens. Robert Cowles, Alberta Darling, Sheila Harsdorf, Luther Olsen, Randy Hopper, Glenn Grothman, Mary Lazich and Dan Kapanke. (Of course, Dems elected in 2008 are potentially subject to recall as well.) And it would take about 15-16K signatures apiece for a successful recall petition, according to ThinkProgress.
So here’s a look at the presidential vote breakdown in all 33 Wisconsin state senate districts to help gauge who might be most vulnerable to such an effort. The “Margin” column is the incumbent’s margin of victory in his or her last election. Remember, you can click on each column header to sort the table, so you can see which incumbents had the narrowest victories, or which Republicans sit in the bluest seats, and so forth. (You can find our original spreadsheet here.)
| District | Senator | Party | Age | First Elected | Margin | Seat Up | Obama | McCain | Kerry | Bush |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frank Lasee | (R) | 49 | 2010 | 20.2% | 2014 | 53% | 45% | 44% | 55% |
| 2 | Robert Cowles | (R) | 60 | 1987 | 99.4% | 2012 | 52% | 46% | 42% | 57% |
| 3 | Tim Carpenter | (D) | 50 | 2002 | 22.5% | 2014 | 63% | 36% | 58% | 42% |
| 4 | Lena Taylor | (D) | 44 | 2004 | 98.8% | 2012 | 86% | 13% | 80% | 19% |
| 5 | Leah Vukmir | (R) | 52 | 2010 | 4.5% | 2014 | 51% | 47% | 46% | 53% |
| 6 | Spencer Coggs | (D) | 61 | 2003 | 98.9% | 2012 | 89% | 11% | 83% | 16% |
| 7 | Chris Larson | (D) | 30 | 2010 | 14.4% | 2014 | 61% | 38% | 56% | 43% |
| 8 | Alberta Darling | (R) | 66 | 1992 | 1.0% | 2012 | 51% | 47% | 46% | 53% |
| 9 | Joe Leibham | (R) | 41 | 2002 | 46.3% | 2014 | 53% | 46% | 47% | 52% |
| 10 | Sheila Harsdorf | (R) | 54 | 2000 | 12.9% | 2012 | 50% | 48% | 48% | 51% |
| 11 | Neal Kedzie | (R) | 55 | 2002 | 50.8% | 2014 | 40% | 59% | 33% | 66% |
| 12 | Jim Holperin | (D) | 60 | 2008 | 2.5% | 2012 | 53% | 46% | 46% | 53% |
| 13 | Scott Fitzgerald | (R) | 47 | 1994 | 38.4% | 2014 | 48% | 51% | 41% | 59% |
| 14 | Luther Olsen | (R) | 59 | 2004 | 99.4% | 2012 | 52% | 47% | 43% | 56% |
| 15 | Tim Cullen | (D) | 66 | 2010 | 18.0% | 2014 | 63% | 35% | 57% | 42% |
| 16 | Mark Miller | (D) | 68 | 2004 | 99.3% | 2012 | 66% | 32% | 58% | 41% |
| 17 | Dale Schultz | (R) | 57 | 1991 | 25.2% | 2014 | 61% | 38% | 51% | 48% |
| 18 | Randy Hopper | (R) | 45 | 2008 | 0.2% | 2012 | 51% | 47% | 42% | 57% |
| 19 | Michael Ellis | (R) | 69 | 1982 | 99.0% | 2014 | 54% | 44% | 45% | 54% |
| 20 | Glenn Grothman | (R) | 55 | 2004 | 60.6% | 2012 | 36% | 63% | 30% | 69% |
| 21 | Van H. Wanggaard | (R) | 58 | 2010 | 5.1% | 2014 | 55% | 43% | 50% | 49% |
| 22 | Robert Wirch | (D) | 67 | 1996 | 33.4% | 2012 | 57% | 41% | 51% | 48% |
| 23 | Terry Moulton | (R) | 64 | 2010 | 8.5% | 2014 | 55% | 43% | 49% | 50% |
| 24 | Julie Lassa | (D) | 40 | 2003 | 35.4% | 2012 | 59% | 39% | 51% | 47% |
| 25 | Robert Jauch | (D) | 65 | 1986 | 2.6% | 2014 | 59% | 40% | 56% | 43% |
| 26 | Fred Risser | (D) | 83 | 1962 | 99.1% | 2012 | 81% | 17% | 75% | 23% |
| 27 | Jon Erpenbach | (D) | 50 | 1998 | 23.7% | 2014 | 67% | 32% | 59% | 40% |
| 28 | Mary Lazich | (R) | 58 | 1998 | 99.2% | 2012 | 39% | 60% | 35% | 64% |
| 29 | Pam Galloway | (R) | 55 | 2010 | 4.6% | 2014 | 53% | 45% | 46% | 53% |
| 30 | Dave Hansen | (D) | 63 | 2000 | 32.2% | 2012 | 56% | 42% | 47% | 52% |
| 31 | Kathleen Vinehout | (D) | 52 | 2006 | 0.7% | 2014 | 58% | 41% | 52% | 46% |
| 32 | Dan Kapanke | (R) | 63 | 2004 | 2.9% | 2012 | 61% | 38% | 53% | 46% |
| 33 | Rich Zipperer | (R) | 36 | 2010 | 99.5% | 2014 | 37% | 62% | 32% | 67% |
One name which stands out here is Dan Kapanke. He’s in the bluest district held by a Republican, and he won by less than 3% last time he faced voters. If his name sounds familiar, that’s because he waged a pretty high-profile challenge against Dem Rep. Ron Kind (WI-03) last year, losing narrowly. I’m sure Kind has a pretty fat oppo file on Kapanke he’d be willing to share….