Cross-posted from Flapolitics.com
http://www.flapoliti…
Here are my rankings with explanations for November.
1. FL-08 (R+3), Incumbent Ric Keller
Keller is facing flak over his flip-flopping and parsing on Iraq. He’s also been criticized for flip-flopping on his term limits promise. Keller voted against Stem Cell Research, voted against SCHIP and children’s health care, against negotiation of prescription drugs, and has voted in lockstep with Republicans on a host of issues taking our liberties away. These terrible votes aren’t the only thing making Keller the most vulnerable Republican in Florida. The district has only a slight tilt to Republicans and has been leaning more toward Democrats in recent years. Unions have also launched ads as part of a $1.5 million campaign against Keller for his anti-children’s health care vote.
Keller will face challengers from both parties in the race, undermining the criticism he has faced. On the Democratic side, Mike Smith and 2006 candidate Charlie Stuart, have both jumped into the race. Whoever wins our primary is going to have a great shot at victory in the 8th district.
2. FL-24 (R+3) Incumbent Tom Feeney
This is another district that has been leaning more towards the Dems in recent years. It doesn’t hurt that Feeney has been absolutely crazy, including his calls to privatize Social Security. I mean this is the guy who walks around with a Conservative Score Card every day in his pocket. He’s been involved in scandal after scandal, including connections with convicted felon Jack Abramoff. Polls now show him under 50% support, in fact, at a low of 42% against Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas, with our candidate only having 19% name recognition. Speaking of our candidate, she’s a former state legislature and should be able to raise the money to compete. Feeney has also been the target of a $1.5 million ad campaign by Unions for his vote against SCHIP. Feeney is probably toast in 2008.
3. FL-15 (R+3) Incumbent Dave Weldon
Weldon kind of goes a long with Feeney. They are both out of their minds. I wonder how they were even elected, if people knew what they were getting at the time. Get this though, in 2006 Weldon faced an underfunded 9/11 Conspiracy Theorist in his reelection bid and won with only 56% of the vote. Now that says something. Prospects are looking bright for the future of this district. Darren Soto won a special election in a previously Republican-held house seat in Kississimee, which also takes in this US House district, earlier this year. The recent influx of Puerto Rican voters may help a Democrat win this seat. Unfortunately, there is no current high-profile Democratic challenger in the race. Steve Blythe is running, however, but it’s yet to be seen how his campaign will go. Personally, I would like someone who is going to be able to raise the funds necessary to win. We really need to get rid of Weldon.
4. FL-25 (R+4) Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart
Prospects also are looking brighter in this district. See here and here. Polls taken in the district have shown health care and Iraq to be the major issues of concern, not Cuba. Mario has straddled the hardline with the Bush Presidency. He’s continuously voted for more war and more surge. He’s voted against children’s health care and he’s voted against stem cell research. Currently, we have no challenger but the Draft Joe Garcia movement is off to a strong start. Should Joe get into the race, this would instantly become a very competitive race. Without a top-tier challenger, it would fall to less competitive.
5. FL-21 (R+6) Incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart
This race is pretty much ditto the above except Raul Martinez is the potential candidate. This district also tilts a little more toward the Republicans than the 25th and probably hasn’t seen the recent growth like the 25th district that would favor the Dems.
6. FL-13 (R+4) Incumbent Vern Buchanan
Tempers still flare over the disputed 2006 election. I think that was probably our best chance of picking up the seat, but 2008 could offer a similar battle. Our candidate from last time, Christine Jennings, is running again and has already earned support from Emily’s List. The area has also seen a lot of growth and particularly that in Sarasota favors the Democrats, where we’ve picked up county seats recently. We have a good shot certainly of picking up this district, if the money is there for another run.
7. FL-18 (R+4) Incumbent Ros-Lehtinen
This race is similar to the other Miami districts. At the moment, however, there are no high-profile rumored Democratic candidates. If we can get a good candidate, then this race would be competivie.
8. FL-10 (D+1) Incumbent Bill Young
This race all depends on Bill Young retiring. If he retires, then this race instantly moves up to our #1 best pickup opportunity. If he doesn’t retire, then it’s probably over. For now, I’ll put this seat here until we hear more. As a note, State Senator Charlie Justice has been rumored to be running for the Democrats and he would be a formidable candidate.
9. FL-05 (R+5) Incumbent Brown-Waite
We still need a credible challenger. Either way it will be an uphill battle. Brown-Waite won 60% of the vote in 2006. She has faced the $1.5 million ad campaign though, targetted by Unions for her vote against children’s health care.
10. FL-09 (R+4) Gus Bilirakis
I just don’t see how we’re going to win this one, if we lost it in 2006 in an open race. Many candidates are lining up to take on the Republican incumbent, however, and the first reelection bid is always the most difficult, so we’ll see if we make this a good challenge.
All Others
FL-01, FL-04, FL-06, FL-07, FL-12, FL-14
We’re probably not going to win these, but it never hurts to try.
Overall, we still need candidates in FL-04, FL-06, FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25
I predict we will pick up 3 seats in 2008.
What are your rankings/predictions?
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If Bill Young retires, we will probably take FL-10. We could also beat Keller in FL-08, but we need high turnout from the minority voters who have been moving into the district. If we can get Garcia in FL-25, we have a chance there as well.
I think we should be able to pick up at least one.
Florida could be great for us.
Any local thoughts on how badly the DNC’s antics are hurting the Dem chances in the state, if at all?
Lets be fair to all the Candidates for FL 24.
I am from District 24 and my friends and I are all sickened by this party favorite crap. We think it is so tacky for these PARTY people to promote their choice candidate without at least mentioning the other people who are running for the same seat. So let me do that now. For District 24 against Tom (corrupt) Feeney we have Clint Curtis (our choice – He has shown great honesty and integrity), Garv Bhola (who is the angry type and not women friendly) and Suzanne Kosmas (also with ethical issues and is very snooty about her wealth and connections not my choice). At this point we need a person who is not all about the money and what the party demands they do. We need a person who is about the people and what the people want and need. Someone who is willing to listen and is always there. That person has already shown HIMSELF Clint Curtis has stepped forward for all of us. He seems to truly care and I say we all should not send the party our money (since they only care about the money machines they run for office) and send it to Clint Curtis’ campaign. Let’s help him beat the party Hacks and Tom Feeney. Let’s all send a clear message that we are tired of being ignored by the Money people. Elections should be about the better candidate not about who has the most connections to the money. Let’s all keep in mind that anyone who has been appointed to office of any type was not born in that position. We appointed them. Curtis has never held office thats true but they all had to start somewhere. New people for a new era.
If you check out all the other blogs that are not tainted then you will see the feedback for Kosmas is not pretty. However, There is a very large uprising for Curtis who came closer to beating Feeney in 2006 than Harry Jacobs did with all of his money for his race against Feeney. Jacobs had a lot of money and did not even come close. Curtis had very little money and came close to winning. People are sick of the money – party people like Kosmas. Curtis is not about the Money and more about the people that is so refreshing. Kosmas was in office from 1996 to 2004 she did nothing until 2003. Her permanant record is on the web. She did not sponsor or co-sponsor one bill until 2003. I guess she figured she should do something for all the money she was making off our tax dollars before she left office. Please don’t take my word for it. Check out the link below and find proof of one bill she sponsored or co-sponsored and prove me wrong.
http://www.myfloridahouse.gov/…
Simply click on the link, click on sponsored bills under her picture, then use the drop down box at the top of the page. She did nothing till 2003.
She did however collect large sums of tax money and help her real estate business grow.
Kosmas is a has been. She is 60+ years old can’t seem to remember what she did, has already been in office and did very little while she was there. I say it is time for new blood. Clint Curtis is my man of choice. I thank you both for having the guts to stand up and tell it like it is. Way to go. Curtis has my vote.
To all of the rest of you just your homework. Get rid of the has Beens and make America whole again.
I have seen him at several public speaking events. People really like this guy. He said in the last election he would take action if he lost, and do a recount. Guess what he did! He went door to door to get signed affidavits of the voters which reflected he got 12% to 24% more votes than the machines said he did. He went to DC and spoke to several members of congress about the voting issue. We now as a result have paper voting again here in Florida, true as Mr. Curtis says there is still work to be done. He has also had the pleasure of being involved on two bills regarding our voting system and making things countable.
He was endorsed by PDA in the last election. He is not the sit back and wait for things to happen kind of guy. He gets out there and makes things happen.
As to not voting for Kosmas, I simply cannot vote for a Democrat that has already shown to be less than honest. (See Above) I witnessed some of her lies first hand. She will tell you something then when we do the research we find she lied. She should at least try to remember her own track record. Come on this isn’t high school. Tell the truth! I and several that I know feel the same way. We WILL NOT vote for her. Although I will leave the vote blank and vote for other races, my friends have all said they will either vote for Feeney or not vote at all.
If Ms. Kosmas and the few who support her cannot take what we dish out on what we know to be true then how in the world will she ever be able to handle things when Feeney gets a hold of her. He is going to rip her apart. He will unearth things that we the people have not found. She has been called a cry baby on the floor. Well get out your tissue Ms. Kosmas things are about to get rough. If Curtis doesn’t get you, Then Feeney will!
For listing for me in the above post. You listed my DailyKos comment. That’s o.k. I still feel the same way. Kosmas is as GirlfromSeminole put’s it “A Has Been”.
I also will never vote for Ms. Kosmas, she is simply the party hack as well as Emilys list gal pal. Don’t get me wrong I am woman hear me roar, but that does not mean that I will vote for one just cause I am a good girl and will do what any party or person tells me to do.
I (we) have a mind of my (our) own and Kosmas will never receive my vote for the 2008 election. Like you I will leave that race blank or not vote at all if Curtis does not win the primary due to the party hack. It is time to restore America to the greatness it once was.
Clint Curtis for Congress 2008 all the way or no vote from me!!!!!!!!!!!