Can you believe it? It looks like we have a full-blown battle on our hands for the seat of the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R-OH). We already know that the NRCC has an ad in the can to help boost Republican candidate Bob Latta’s bruised favorables after a divisive primary, but it looks like the DCCC has just stepped up to land another body blow on Latta:
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE
1. Opposes Candidate: Robert Latta (H8OH05036)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 12/01/2007 Amount Expended = $148474.55
Purpose: Media Buy2. Opposes Candidate: Robert Latta (H8OH05036)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
Payee: McMahon Squier Lapp and Associates Inc.
Date Expended = 12/01/2007 Amount Expended = $8800.00
Purpose: Media Production
This comes on the heels of Weirauch receiving individual donations from Rahm Emanuel, Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi, among others. Will it be enough to help tilt this R+10 district in favor of Democrat Robin Weirauch? The DCCC, flush with cash, has the chance to force Republicans on the defensive in what should be safely red turf. Since the DCCC is set to aggressively challenge a great deal of red seats next year, now’s as good a time as any to test some messages.
Grab the popcorn — we’ve got a real race on our hands here.
I figured the establishment would sit back and shoot for Hastert’s seat only before 2008. Clearly, we’ve got two seats in our sights before 2008.
Unfortunately, Meehan wasn’t contested in 2006, so we can’t compare numbers as much as I would like, but here’s a small breakdown to reflect on the dynamics of competitive special elections.
2006 OH-05
Incumbent Jim Gilmor- 129,813 (57%)
Robin Weirauch —— 98,544 (43%)
Competitive Special Election MA-05
Nikki Tsongas — 54,363 (51%)
Jim Ogonowski — 47,770 (45%)
If the GOTV programs can get 55,000+ votes out, I would expect us to outdo Latta. Who knows if that’s possible? Our best odds are here and now.
I’m brown like Sherrod and I’m young like Don
And I got more bling than Moseley Braun
In Senator Shaheen I will take pride
And in the Udall Boyz from the West Side
I’m supporting Warner, M., not Warner, J.
And we’ll increase our posse on election day
November ’08 is the time to shine
For stone-cold inauguration in 2009
So put your checks in the mail and don’t be cheap
And wave your hands in the air ’cause you care so deep
Peace
that the DCCC is outspending the NRCC 10:1. I’ll bet they took a poll and have some interesting info. . .
I kept hoping this would happen, but as time passed, I was becoming more discouraged. This is really great news. And I doubt the DCCC would jump in unless it saw at least a “reasonable chance” of success.
Kudos to the DCCC.
Kudos to Wes Clark for fighting for Weirauch and fundraising for her.
Kudos to Brown and Ryan for campaigning for her.
Kudos for the Netroots for keeping the spotlight on this race.
In 2006, Gillmour spent $723,000 and got 130,000 votes, or about $5.56 per vote
Weirauch spent $115,000 and got 99,000 votes, or about $1.16 per vote.
If the money race is even…. who knows?
Given this expenditure and the NRCC own spending on the race, it is resonable to assume polling shows this is a tight race. This is not entirely suprising since Strickland and Bronw both carried the district last year. That being said, this is a district that we need to try and seize when the opportunity is avialable, since it may be a long time before we have another chance at this district.
A win here could really build momentum. It could even make a few more Republicans retire and a few more Democrats step up to the plate.
If we win in a set that’s R+10, then any seat that’s tilts Republicans by less than double digits has to be seen as competitive.
Even the six Texas seats that don’t have Democrats currently running could become interesting to watch.
(Granted, they have incumbents to deal with, but a unexpectedly strong candidate, one that is passionate and has great leadership, could, with the right support, surprise.)