The NRCC has made its third media buy in OH-05 today, where lackluster Republican Bob Latta is seriously underperforming expectations:
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE
1. Opposes Candidate: ROBIN WEIRAUCH FOR CONGRESS
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
Payee: STEVENS REED CURCIO & POTHOLM
Date Expended = 12/05/2007 Amount Expended = $45620.00
Purpose: Issue Ad Placement
The $45K media buy brings the NRCC’s total expenditures in the race to a whopping $370,000. There isn’t much time left to make media buys here, so we’ll be keeping our eyes peeled to see if the DCCC responds.
Either way, Robin Weirauch and the DCCC have forced the NRCC to do the unthinkable in this R+10 district. Stay tuned.
UPDATE: The DCCC posted a couple of expenditures of their own:
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE
1. Opposes Candidate: Robert Latta (H8OH05036)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
Payee: Mack Crounse Group LLC
Date Expended = 12/04/2007 Amount Expended = $11144.05
Purpose: Mail Services2. Opposes Candidate: Robert Latta (H8OH05036)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
Payee: McMahon Squier Lapp and Associates Inc.
Date Expended = 12/04/2007 Amount Expended = $4300.00
Purpose: Media Production
I would expect to see the DCCC make another media buy for the new ad they produced in short order… or maybe they’re playing mind games with NRCC Chair Tom Cole. One of the two.
UPDATE 2: Even more expenditures from the NRCC — $2700 for phone banks, $6K for a new poll, and $1400 to produce a new ad. ($1400? What, did they film that with a camcorder in Tom Cole’s basement?)
Is it DCCC 150K + 115K? (265K)
While the NRCC is around 400K for OH-05 + VA-01?
on the money being spent.
Over $11,000 for mail services. That’s a lot of stamps.
Is that an internal poll showed this race within three points. The article is on roll call, which I don’t subscribe to, but the blog that refers the article is on openleft.
I’m calling this a victory for the Democrats.
It doesn’t matter if they lose in OH-5, they have forced the Republicans to spend money they don’t have. Spending more than 10% of their total CoH in a district that is R+10 is insanity. Spending it when they are in debt overall is a disaster, regardless of the outcome. I can’t see a lot of Republican incumbents who are in closer districts happy to see this. They are going to be pissed when they don’t get the same cash influx come next November.
that Weirauch can get above the 43% she got in 2006, because if she can’t, its gonna be a big embarassment. It would be a nightmare to see us do all this work and in the end have Latta win 67%-33%. Ive seen this happen before before in other special elections and its the worst.
The GOP is determined to hold this district, hoping to avoid embarrassment at losing such a solid district. How really “solid” it ever was remains to be seen, as Bowling Green is home to BGSU, and the enrollment there is up, and where there are large unis, there are more democratic voters.
For those who check out a congressional map of OHIO, there are couple of other districts to watch: they divied up the Dayton area (montgomery co.) in an amazing way, splitting it between OH-03 and OH-07. Dayton as a city itself is very democratic, but the outlying areas, including Wright Patterson Air-Force base, are more republican. OH-07 would be even more republican were it not for, once again, a growing university: Wright State University. Now, I come from OH-03 and the only reason why a republican like Turner has survived so long is that he has mostly been very moderate and works very hard to stay in touch with his constituency. When it comes to redistricting, however, I can imagine that, since OH will lose at least one seat, that OH-03, OH-07, OH-01 and OH-08 will be redistricted, with OH-07 disappearing, losing fairfield and perry counties to OH-18 (which would of course be renamed 0H-17), pickaway and fayette counties to OH-15 (Columbus and environs, which would be renamed OH-14), greene county and the part of montgomery county that was part of OH-07 would return to OH-03, Clark county to OH-08, which would in-turn lose Miami county to OH-03. With 17 instead of 18 CDs, Ohio would lose one republican district but OH-03 would become more competitive for both parties.
Since the democrats are in control in Ohio and there is a large ANTI-gerrymandering movement there, we can assume that districts will be pretty fairly redrawn. This is important for the future political shift of OH, which I am sure will become very solid blue.
So, in order to keep the GOP on the run, expect the DEMS to pour more money in OH-05 and even if the race looks hopeless, I bet they will pour money into OH-07, trying to turn voters blue for the reapportionment that will happen after 2010.
And OH-16 looks like a prime takeover candidate. If the DEMS take hold in Massilon, OH, then the district can flip.