Taking a page from NC Dem Party chair Jerry Meek’s playbook, I thought we could open up the floor to a discussion of possible recruits for Senate races in each of the twenty-one GOP-held seats that are up for re-election in 2008. We’ll go in alphabetical order, starting with the first five. Links are to the Race Tracker wiki, in case you need to get your creative juices flowing, and incumbents are in parens:
1) Alabama (Jeff Sessions)2) Alaska (Ted Stevens)
3) Colorado (Wayne Allard)
4) Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
5) Idaho (Larry Craig)
So whom do you like for challengers to these seats? As Meek said, don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?
You never know who might be reading this blog – and cribbing ideas from it!
AL – Charles Barkely, if not then Artur Davis who would be like a more blogosphere-friendly and populist-driven Harold Ford.
AK – Mark Begich, mayor of Anchorage… I think Tony Knowles’ time has come to past.
CO – Mark Udall is great with me… Dick Hickenlooper perhaps, but I think all the Dems including him will line up behind Udall.
GA – Shirley Franklin… Even if she doesn’t win, I think she would run one hell of a race and be, again, someone who will be fighting the good fight.
ID – perhaps… one of Larry Craig’s male prostitutes? OK, maybe that was a bit too much…
Also, I think that a strong challenge in AL should be complimented with a strong challenge in AL-03, which was drawn by the Dem. legislature to elect a conservative Democrat, is more nationally democratic than Bud Cramer’s district in North AL, and is locally very democratic… The main problem is that recruit always ends up being a failure, running another Eric Fingerhut every election cycle.
Yes, AL-03 is a seat that I cannot for the life of me understand why we don’t target. We came within just 2000 votes of winning there when it was open in 2002, and even the sacrificial Dems that ran in 2004 and 2006 seem to have a steady floor of 40% of the vote. What we need is a populist Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly style Democrat to run there and we can pick up that seat. There are also other opportunities in Alabama if we could dilute the black majority AL-07 and move some of those heavily Democratic precincts into AL-04 or AL-06 to at least make them a little more competitive.
1.) Lt. Governor Jim Folsom, Jr.
2.) Mayor Mark Begich
3.) U.S. Congressman Mark Udall
4.) Ex-U.S. Senator Max Cleland
5.) Ex-U.S. Congressman Larry LaRocco
There is serious talk that Wayne Allard is going to step down in Colorado making this an open seat in 2008. Barring unforseen circumstnces the Dems are likely to clear the field for Rep. Mark Udall. If ALLARD does step down the GOP side might be a free for all: Rep. Tom Tancredo, former Rep. Scott McInnis, former Gov. Bill Owens, Former Rep.Beauprez would all be strong contenders. Owens however has alienated the anti-immigration folks and might be (GOP perspective) damaged goods, Beauprez is the long shot of the four. The question is what happens if a 3-way field develops between Owens, Tancredo & McINNIS?
Personally, I believe that Allard is going to step aside as Mark Dayton did in Minnesota did this year recognizing that he is not that strong an option anymore. He was one of those who pledged 2 terms and done so he can make an honorable exit pointing to his pledge.
The scenario that the GOP planned to follow, Ted Stevens stepping down in a move to hand the seat to his son Ben Stevens blew up when the FBI raided the son’s office per suing evidence for corruption charges. As a result Ted Stevens announced 2 weeks ago he will run for re-election in 2008, if he lives that long. Sen Stevens will be 84 in Nov of 2008.
I hope Tony Knowles stays far away from this race. For whatever reason he has lost his touch with the Alaska electorate and I can’t help feeling at this point they are better off recruiting a fresh face to run.
three leading possible contenders for the Democrats:
1) Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (whose father Rep elect Nick Begich died with Senator Hale Boggs D-La when the plane they were in crashed into the Pacific Ocean in 1970. Nick Begich never was sworn in due to his death. Sen. Boggs is news correspondent Cokie Roberts father)
2) Dem House Minority leader Ethan Berkowitz ( Knowles Lt. Gov ticket mate)
3) State Rep. Eric Croft (lost to Knowles in primary for Gov.)
Croft seems likely to run. As a state Senator he sponsored legislation that would have required an election to replace any Senate vacancy in Alaska, a move widely thought to be a precursor to a 2008 Senate run if Ted Stevens died in office. He is the son Chancy Croft, Attorney, who was Speaker, Alaska House of Representatives in the 1970s and ran for Governor in 1978.
First, eliminate the greatly lamented American hero Max Cleland. He will not run. He has stated his role from here on out is to help elect other Democrats and will not stand for public office again. I would take him at his word.
Four possibilities that I see:
Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin. But her Mayor’s term runs through 2009 which might inhibit her
Congressman Jim Marshall. Will never rest easy in his CD so may figure if I am going to be in a tough race, might as well be a Senate race. He is the Alpha Dog among possible Democrats. Many point at his Medal of Honor but if Max Cleland, war hero lost to Chambliss being a war hero is not as strong a selling point in Georgia as it once was.
Secretary of State Cathy Cox.
DeKalb Co. Executive Vernon Jones. He is a man who generates extreme support and opposition. Personally, I doubt he is all that viable statewide.
Denise Majette and former Gov. Roy Barnes both appear to be spent political forces. Hopefully God won’t tell Denise to run and he did in 2004 when she gave up her safe Congressional seat after ousting Cynthina McKinney from her congressional seat (the first time).
A)Tier 1-(Vulnerable Blue State Senators)
1)Coleman(MN)- ex State Auditor Judi Dutcher
2)Sununu(NH)- ex Governor Jeanne Shaheen
3)Smith(OR)- ex Governor John Kitzhaber
B)Tier 1-(Vulnerable Purple State Senators)
4)Allard(CO)- 2nd CD US Rep Mark Udall
C)Tier 1-(Vulnerable Red State Senators)
5)Sessions(AL)-Lt Governor Jim Folsom
6)Chambliss(GA)-ex Secretary of State Cathy Cox
7)Dole(NC)- Governor Mike Easley
8)Inhofe(OK)- Governor Brad Henry
9)Cornyn(TX)- 28th CD US Rep Henry Cuellar
D)Tier 2 Blue State
10)Collins(ME)- Governor John Baldacci
E)Tier 2 Purple State
11)Domenici(NM)- ex AG Patricia Madrid
f)Tier 2 Red State
12)Stevens(AK)- ex Lt Gov Fran Ulmer
13)Craig(ID)-ex 1st CD US Rep Larry LaRocco
14)Roberts(KS)- Governor Kathleen Sebelius
15)McConnell(KY)- ex Lt Governor Steve Henry
16)Cochran(MS)- ex AG Mike Moore
17)Hagel(NE)- ex Lt Governor Maxine Moul
18)Graham(SC)- ex Governor Jim Hodges
19)Alexander(TX)- Governor Phil Bredesen
20)Warner(VA)- ex Governor Mark Warner
21)Enzi-(WY) Governor Dave Fredenthal
The First 4 are extremely vulnerable
In the C category- I would say that Dole is probally the most vulnerable.
Arkansas- ex Governor Mike Huckabee
Delaware- US Rep Mike Castle
Illinios- ex Governor Jim Edgar
Iowa- ex Governor Terry Branstad
Louisiana- 1st CD US REP Bobby Jindal
Massachusetts- ex Governor Paul Cellucci
Michigan- ex Governor John Engler
Montana- ex Governor Marc Racicot
New Jersey- ex Governor Christine Todd Whitman
Rhode Island- Governor Don Carcieri
South Dakota- Governor Mike Rounds
West Virginia- 2nd CD US Rep Shelly Moore Capito
Following your direction and starting with the first five:
1) Alabama:Lt. Governor Jim Folsom, Jr.
2) Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, State Rep. Eric Croft as a back-up.
3) Colorado: Cong. Mark Udall CO-02. As to who would be the easiest to knock off on the Gopee side, that’s a toss-up btwn Beauprez & Trancedo & Owens (read: none beat Udall). Allard could be pressured to stay in but I wouldn’t want to bet on that. If he does Udall can take him out.
4) Georgia: Assuming Ex-Sen.Max Cleland is a no-go, I see either Cong. Marshall GA-08 or Cong. Barrow GA-12 or Scty State Cathy Cox. If its Marshall or Barrow we may have difficulty in holding those seats so I’d prefer Cox. Although ultimately I prefer Cleland, hands down. I hear Cynthia McKinney is available..LOL.
5) Idaho : Ex- Cong. Larry LaRocco or former Gov Candidate Jerry Brady.
And, yes, I knew John Hall NY-19 would win, as soon as he entered the race (but granted, not before he did so).
. . . I honestly believe that Colorado is the only one we have a chance of picking up. Alabama, Georgia, Alaska, and Idaho are so reliably red. Sure, we should find good challengers in all states, but if I were a betting woman, I would not put money on the Democrats gaining seats in the deep south or in Alaska or Idaho.
(By the way, an Atlanta-based friend tells me that Shirley Franklin has no higher political ambitions, and will serve out the entirety of her term as Mayor. With that being said, I certainly hope she will go on to a higher office at some point– perhaps a Cabinet post in the next Democratic administration?)
In terms of celebrities running for office, it would certainly be a kick to see Andre 3000 of OutKast running in Georgia! (Absolutely insane? You bet. But I can just imagine the looks on youseguys’ collective faces as you read this!)
Sen. Pete is up in 2008 as well and rumors are swirling that he will step down. He is in his seventies. Even if he doesn’t step down, if Bill Richardson decides not to run for the Presidency, we could have a heavy weight fight in the Land of Enchantment.
Boywonder is right. Eric Fingerhut is a great legislator and a great man who actually is analagous with being a thoughtful, independent, extremely bright voice who has the best ideas for moving Ohio forward. There’s a lack of depth to your posts/observations on him KainIIC, but that’s alright. I just want to make sure someone scanning over the page here has the opportunity to read what’s real about one of Ohio’s best leaders. Happy Holidays!
Ethan Berkowitz for AK-Sen? I always thought he was a strong top-of-the-ticket candidate.
Alaska – 1)Begich, 2) Berkowitz, 3) Croft
Alabama – 1) Artur Davis
Colorado – 1) Mark Udall
Georgia – *1) (Mayor Franklin would definitely be my first choice, but I either see her in a Democratic cabinet in 09 or running for Governor in 2010.) – 1) Scott, 2) Marshall, 3) Bishop, 4) Cox
Idaho – 1) LaRocco (I believe he has already been on record saying he is eyeing the seat, while Grant is going for the re-match w/ Sali.)
Making a comprehensive database w/ all suggestions for all 33 races would be awesome. This was fun!
…if you look past Knowles’ loss, it wasn’t a bad year for AK Dems–they picked up a state senate seat and three state house seats, narrowly the margin of Republican control significantly in both houses (11R-9D in the Senate, 23R-17D in the House). On top of that, Don Young got his weakest showing in years. Granted, he still got 57%, but keep in mind that Bush scored 61% here in 2004 and Young usually gets 70+% of the vote.
If Allard is the Nominee- The Race will be a Tossup W/Slight Edge – Udall
If McInnis is the Nominee- Leans Udall
If Beauprez- Udall Favored
If Tancredo or Musgrave- Safe Udall
If Owens- Tossup
If the 3 way field includes Owens,Tancredo and McInnis. I would say McInnis- THe ANTI Immigration Favorite Tancredo is a lost cause- NRSC will probally concede that race to the Dems if Tancredo gets the nod. We know they are unlikely to support Owens. McInnis is the safe choice. The other possiblitiy is Owens and McInnis will split the Moderate- electable vote and Tancredo gets the nod similar to open House Seat Race in Arizona 8th CD- Randy Graf won the GOP nomination but lost in the November General Election
Okay, these are just the thoughts of a college frosh in Texas, lol, but I thought I’d take a whack at all of them.
TOP TARGETS
Tier I
Colorado – 1) Mark Udall. I expect the field to clear for him. I do like Hickenlooper, though.
Minnesota – 1) Alan Page (does anyone know if he’d even be interested?), 2) Betty McCollum, 3) R.T. Rybak
New Hampshire – 1) Jeanne Shaheen
Tier II
Oregon – 1) Kitzhaber (Seems like the dream candidate), 2) Blumenauer
North Carolina – 1) Perdue (Although, it seems that she goes for governor), 2) Moore (might do the opposite of Perdue, one Gov and the other Senate), 3) Elaine Marshall
Maine – 1) Allen, 2) King (possibly pull a Sanders and let him be an “I” while not putting up a Dem challenger), 3) Michaud
SOUTH
Texas – 1) Bill White, 2) Henry Cuellar (would actually fly statewide and free up his district for someone more liberal) 3) John Sharp (eh, but he does have statewide support. Hopefully it will not come to this, though)
Oklahoma – 1) Edmondson, 2) Carson
Mississippi – 1) Moore, obviously.
Alabama – 1) Davis, ditto.
Georgia – 1) Marshall, 2) Rep. Scott, 3) Bishop, 4) Cox
South Carolina – ?Absolutely no clue. Someone decent should be in place, on the chance that Graham does get badly bruised (beaten?) in his primary. Would Tenenbaum run again?
Virginia – If Warner retires, hopefully 1) Warner goes for it. I have no clue about Virginia’s bench, to be honest.
Tennessee – 1) Bredesen (although, I have no clue how strong of a chance there is of him running), 2) Ford
Kentucky – 1) Mayor Abramson (I’ve read somewhere that Louisville candidates don’t do well statewide, but I thought I’d throw a different name out there.)
MOUNTAIN WEST/PLAINS
New Mexico – 1) Chavez, 2)Udall, 3) Madrid. I do not expect Richardson to make a go at it, either he’s on the ticket or in the cabinet. This would be much nicer if Domenici decided against re-election, but it seems he might make one last run.
Kansas – Personally, I have no clue. However, Schumer should definitely ask Gov. Sebelius to pick someone she thinks can be viable statewide. She seems to have a knack for getting great candidates or even making Republicans switch.
Nebraska – If Hagel retires to go after the presidency, this could possibly be interesting. How about Scott Kleeb? That guy should definitely stay in the spotlight, he seems to be a bright spot for Nebraska Dems.
Idaho – I believe former Congressman LaRocco has indicated there is a strong chance he will seek the seat. Sounds fine.
Wyoming – Like Kleeb in Nebraska, maybe Trauner should take a chance with the Senate? Who knows, just an idea. Those two guys have the potential to be Democratic stars in their respective states, for years to come.
Alaska – I like either Mayor Begich or Ethan Berkowitz. Both seem to have bright futures,if people start investing in heavily GOP states w/ libertarian tendencies.
This is really just whimsy, but if Tony Knowles is genuinely played out, maybe Mike Gravel’s surviving friends could persuade him to give up his quixotic (not to describe them as nonsensical) illusions about running a fringe candidacy for the Democratic nomination for President, and get him to move home to Alaska and try to get some actual power by reclaiming his senate seat?
And don’t tell me he’s too weird now for the Alaska electorate. They’ve had some real eccentrics in Alaska politics, in recent years. I forget what that one guy was in favor of, that Benson beat in this year’s primary. Something outre’. Martians, or secession, or something really out there.
KainIIIC – Denver’s mayor is John Hickenlooper, not Dick.
walja – The Boggs-Begich crash occurred in 1972, not 1970. Boggs was not a Senator, rather he was the Majority Leader of the House.
Whoa nelly on writing off the Alaska U.S. Senate race. First of all, the last time there was a Democrat in the U.S. Senate from Alaska was 26 years ago. And his name was “Mike” Gravel, not “Maurice”. But those are just details. There is a real reason to believe that the seat Ted Stevens currently holds could go Democratic in the next election.
1. Ted Stevens may not run again. Just because he said so, does not mean Stevens will really run. He is back in the minority after getting the plush office and trimmings of Senate Pro-Tem, third in line to succession of the Presidency the past few years. His big ego will not do well sitting for the next two years as a back-bencher. He’s old and tired and could very well decide to step aside before the June 1, 2008 filing deadline. An open seat provides a tremendous opportunity for one of several statewide Democrats to take back this seat.
2. Ted Stevens has some dirty laundry that will not smell good during a contested race. The federal money that he directed to a fisheries board that ended up going to his state senator son, Ben, is rumored as being under investigation by the FBI. His son, who is the current state senate president, is under investigation for connections to an oil service company, which Ted has received lots of campaign money from. Son, Ben, (still the Senate President) did not even show up for a legislative special session in November when it was rumored that indictments may be coming down during that week. Ted’s connections to his son, the oil service company, and the federal fisheries money for his son, are a couple of reasons he may be vulnerable in 2008. More is likely to come down on these story threads.
3. Democrats with standing might run for this seat. Besides popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, there are a number of Democrats with statewide potential who could take on Stevens. State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz ran a strong campaign for Lt. Governor this year, and has statewide ambition and appeal. State Rep. Eric Croft didn’t fare well against former Gov. Tony Knowles in the Primary for governor in 2006, but he ran a respectable campaign and showed he will stand up for principle and is not afraid to take on the establishment candidate. State Sen. Hollis French has a strong record as a reformer and an ethics advocate. Former Fairbanks North Star Borough Mayor Jim Sampson is someone that can draw a crowd and starts off with solid support from Alaska’s bellweather second largest city. Former Gov. Tony Knowles has a statewide following that can be burnished in a head to head race against Stevens. There are others as well.
4. Democrats picked up 4 seats in the legislature in 2006, and are on the rise statewide. Democrats are the majority of the new state senate majority coalition — a first since the early 90s.
5. The Democrat won 40% against Congressman Don Young in the 2006 election — the best showing since the early 90s. This result was from a candidate — Diane Benson — who had never been elected to public office, raised very little money (less than $100,000), against a 33-year incumbent who spent $1.6 million to keep his seat.
A Democrat can win the 2008 race for U.S. Senate in Alaska.
REP. SANFORD BISHOP (D-GA)to Challenge Saxby Chambliss
Bishop is a Harold Ford type Democrat. His district was re-drawn in 2000 to make it 60% white, and he still won re-election.
I think Craig may be more vulnerable than people think. Depending on the candidate we recruit, that could be the darkhorse race. Given that Craig is a closet case, I bet an ex-boy toy or two comes out in 2008. Either way, the issue of honesty and truthfulness can be played without the democrats looking homophobic.
Southern Republican held seats
1)Alabama- Arthur Davis
2)Georgia- Sanford Bishop
3)Mississippi- Mike Espy
4)Tennessee- Harold Ford Jr.
5)Texas- Henry Cuellar
Western Republican held seats
6)New Mexico- Patricia Madrid or Martin Chavez
7)Oregon- Jim Hill
A lot of people here have suggested ex-Lt. Gov nominee Judi Dutcher run against Coleman. That’s one way to flush this race straight down the toilet! She is best known for crashing Mike Hatch’s (although Mike is kind of an ass) gubernatorial campaign right before the end, by not knowing what E85 was. (Cmon!) Franken would obviously be a disaster for our chances here, although I would love to see him in the senate, he couldn’t win.
Our best chances are Betty McCollum and RT Ryback. McCollum would get good help from Klobuchar (and could give us 2 female senators), and could easily paint Coleman as a rubber stamp. Ryback, who I’m less familiar with, could count on great Twin Cities turnout and could follow in the footsteps of the last minneapolis mayor to become senator, Hubert Humphrey.
I’ve heard some people mention her name and my obvious questions is why? Its not even that she lost to Wilson, but its how she lost. She had this race won, but for some reason her and her idiot campaign staff didn’t think Wilson would ask her about taxes. Udall would be a much, much better candidate as would the mayor of Albuquerque.
. . . agree with safi and Terryrus regarding New Mex and Minnesota. I like the idea of Betty McCollum running– she could definitely provide a top-notch alternative to Coleman. And Udall is a winning name in southwestern states, and he definitely has a stronger track record than Madrid.
Also, the mention of Sanford Bishop is the best candidate idea floated out yet for Georgia. He may not win, but at least he’ll give the senate race a high profile, and will make more of an impact than any other potential candidate. Good thinking!
7 were elected in 2002
1)Chambliss(GA)- Red State- trending Republican.- a credible candidate- Cathy Cox will make the race competive but Chambliss is favored
2)Coleman(MN)- Blue State- Trending Democratic- a decent Democratic challenger like US Rep Betty McCollum can unseat Norm Coleman. Tossup
3)Sununu(NH)- Blue State – Trending Democratic- Jeanne Shaheen- will be the likely Democratic challenger. Tossup
4)Dole(NC)= Red State- Trending Democratic- a top tier challenger ie Mike Easley can make the race a tossup.
5-7)Graham(SC),Alexander(TN)and Cornyn(TX)represent red states trending Republican.
Coleman(MN) and Sununu(NH) are likely to lose. Dole will be a surprise defeats Sue Kelly.
7 were elected in 1996
1-4)- Session(AL),Allard(CO),Collins(ME)and Smith(OR)were elected in 1996 by a less than 10% margin.
Sessions(AL)- is safe- Alabama is a red state trending Republican- Jim Folsom can make the race competive.
Allard(CO)- the most vulnerble- narrow victories in 1996 and 2002 against a mediocre opponent. State is trending Democratic- Allard has a top tier challenger- Mark Udall. Likely Democratic takeover
Collins(ME)- Collins is favored- She is the Democrats favorite Republican. She is likely to attach her self to the Liberman Party.
Smith(OR)- Surprising Defeat- Blue State trending Democratic. Smith is a right of center ideology is somewhat out of step of voters in a state that has a libertarian mindset. a top tier Democrat like John Kitzhaber of Pete DeFazio can defeat Smith or make the race a tossup.
5-7)Roberts(KS),Hagel(NE)and Enzi(WY)were elected or re-elected by a landslide margin.
Allard(CO)and Smith(OR)are likely to get defeated.
The remaining 7
Possible Retirements
1)Stevens(AK)- Safe Republican- Red State
2)Cochran(MS)- Safe Republican – Red State
3)Domenici(NM)- Potential Dem Gain- Purple state trending Blue- US Rep Tom Udall
4)Inhofe(OK)- Safe Republican- Red State
5)Warner(VA)- Potential Dem GAin- Red State trending Democratic.- ex Governor Mark Warner.
Craig(ID)is safe
McConnell(KY)- is potentially competive- due to the scandals involving the GOP governor.
Even though the Republicans have 21 seat to defend, it’s obvious that we need a little help. Since open seats are far more easier to take, I think the current Democrats in the Senate should make life as miserable as possible for some of the Republicans. After all, it’s hard to go from the majority to the minority.
I believe I heard a report when I was up in Anchorage that he does not plan to retire?
But if he does step aside, I’d be willing to bet that the ever-charasmatic and super-energetic longtime State Representative from Wasila, Vic Kohring will run for the seat. The Valley where Vic is from, has become the center of Alaska politics now with Sarah Palin’s ascension to the Governorship.
Kohring shares a lot of views with the extremely popular Palin. Plus, he’s from her hometown.
He’d make an excellent candidate for the US Senate.
Eric at http://www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
Hasn’t anyone noticed that Republican Senator, Craig Thomas of Wyoming was diagnosed in November with a form of Leukemia that is 90 percent fatal within one year? The Governor of Wyoming is a Democrat! I predict that a Democrat will be in this seat by Memorial Day.