While we haven’t written anything about the primaries here at SSP, I’ve gotta say, the presidential horseraces on both sides have been fascinating, especially the Republicans and especially of late. I really have no clue how things will wind up.
So let’s open the floor to presidential primary talk – what do you think will happen? How will the early primaries go? Who will wind up being the nominees? And why?
UPDATE: I swear! I promise! The focus of this site will not change! This is just a one-off open thread. Down-ballot 4ever!
Notable User Diaries
- The always-reliable Benawu is back with several updates on the Texas House race situation – here’s the most recent entry. The filing deadline is Jan. 2, and three districts appear to be without candidates.
- DGM surveys New Mexico’s wide open political scene.
- Nerds unite! NYPopulist is starting up a Fantasy Congress league. SSP Insider’s Tip Sheet says Louise Slaughter is your sleeper pick for the upcoming session.
- Progressive America bangs out a pair of diaries on Florida state legislative elections. The House is discussed here, and part one of the Senate begins here.
Opening this up to the presidential race; last thing I want is for this place, my favorite blog, to become a replica of MyDD where you can not find a diary not about the presidential race.
I'm going to sleep for a month waking up only for MacWorld. I've lost all interest in the presidential race at this point.
Its too close to call in Iowa, so whoever wins it becomes the hunted. If Obama/Edwards come in third their campaign is over. If Clinton emerges victorious in Iowa, the nomination is hers for the taking. The same can't be said for Obama or Edwards. Edwards/Obama/Clinton makes it totally unpredictable but I'd have to lean to Obama in that case. Edwards/Clinton/Obama, Clinton fights down Edwards surge in New Hampshire and Obama is crippled, Clinton is the nominee. Obama/Edwards/Clinton, Obama roars into New Hampshire victorious and uses the momentum to wind up the nominee. Obama/Clinton/Edwards, Edwards dropps out, likely endorses Obama to block Clinton, its the dogfight of the century, I'd lean to a Obama victory in the end. Clinton/ObamaEdwards, Clinton emerges unscathed victorious.
There is the serious potential for a brokered convention if it winds up Obama/Clinton/Edwards or Edwards/Obama/Clinton.
It will all be over soon enough thank god. The Silly Season can't end soon enough.
Having said that I think Edwards will either win Iowa comfortably, giving him the opportunity to exceed expectations in NH, or he will come a close second, end his campaign and endorse Obama. Either Barack (due to a Dean-like collapse) or Hillary (low second choice preference) will be third. Clinton wins the caucus then she sweeps the field. If Obama wins Iowa then the nomination leans to him but I would not count Hillary out even if he managed to parlay the momentum into wins in NH and SC.
I think there's no point in having this thread when the polls show the “top three” in a deadlock. Why not wait a week, and ask us our take on the caucus results? I propose having a once-a-month Presidential open thread– with a special emphasis on how a particular potential nominee could affect down-ballot races, of course! Whaddya think?
This may be a bit of a chearleading post, but it's a plausible scenario for Edwards:
Edwards will win the Iowa caucuses with 37% of the vote, Obama 30, Clinton 29, rest 4%.
Obama recieves a 10% drop in New Hampshire polls (as the anti-Clinton vote solidifies around Edwards) and it ends up: Edwards 35% Clinton 32% Obama 23% Rest 10%. Biden and Dodd drop out.
Edwards recieves more union endorsements and the Nevada caucuses are won, although narrowly, almost fully due to the Culinary and SEIU endorsements to Edwards. let's say… 44-41. Richardson drops out.
Edwards wins in South Carolina 38%, Clinton 32%, Obama 24%, Obama drops out, endorses Edwards.
Clinton wins Florida with 43%, largely due to heavily favorable support from absentee ballots. Clinton recieves a slight boost in momentum.
Super Tuesday comes around, with Clinton winning the Northeastern states, Arizona, Arkansas and a few others, Edwards wins the Southern states(minus Arkansas), the midwestern states, and narrowly loses California to Clinton. Mountain western states, i've got no idea.
Unofficial result is in after the Wisconsin and Washington primaries, which Edwards wins. Clinton either drops out after this or after the Texas primary, where the secret service finally protects John Edwards.
anyone want to hear my Republican predictions? probably not, but I think Romney pulls it out after a tough 3way campaign with Huckabee and McCain.
Speaking of down ballot…
To me the issue is "who's got coattails"?
And that depends on the area. Obviously, Barack does the best in urban areas, but in Ohio that's already our stronghold. In the boondocks, Edwards does the best. HRC will appeal to those women who want to make history but will motivate evangelicals that carried Ohio (and the nation) for the Shrub, who stayed home (in droves) during 2006. But the GOP nominee makes a difference. It will be tough for evangelicals to get fired up against HRC if the GOP nominates Rudy or Mitt.
Sadly, bigotry and sexism are still alive and well in America. And because of The "Wilder Effect" it might not show up in polling, but it will show up at the polls.
Just remember, this is a country where in 2004, two thirds of the population thought that Iraq was somehow responsible for the 9-11 attacks. Barnum was right.
My greatest fear is that we we’ll have another smoke and mirrors campaign which ignores local party building. And once again, we’ll find out the hard way, that Tip O’Neill was right.
Hopefully, all of the hard work of Chairman Dean has already turned the tide. In Ohio, although there are still glaring holes, our overall infrastructure is about a gazillion times stronger than 2004. Just having Governor Ted onboard may be enough to change the outcome of the whole election.
I’m absolutely terrible at predicting the outcomes of elections, so chances are, none of this will happen.
Iowa- Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Biden
New Hamphsire- Obama/Edwards (close), Clinton, the rest
Gore or Kerry Endorse (no idea who).
Michigan- Clinton (~60%), Uncommitted (~30%)
Nevada- Clinton, Obama/Edwards (close, distant 2nd/3rd) (No significance, because its results will be overshadowed by the GOP SC primary)
South Carolina- Obama, Clinton (close), Edwards (stronger than expected)
Florida- Clinton, Obama (closer than expected), Edwards (also closer)
Feb. 5- Clinton and Obama split the delegates, Edwards in a strong 3rd, but can’t get enough delegates in the later states to win the nomination. He begins planning his exit. MyDD explodes. There are no survivors.
(Effectively a two-person race from here out.)
Louisiana/Nebraska/Washington (Feb. 9)- Either Clinton or Obama win two of three. The other devotes all his/her energy to Wisconsin.
Maine (Feb. 10)- Winner of two on Feb. 9 is carried by momentum, wins Maine.
DC, Maryland, Virginia (Feb. 12)- Feb. 10 winner sweeps the three. Media begins talk of “unstoppable momentum.”
Feb. 12 loser picks up key endorsement. (Edwards?)
Wisconsin, Hawaii (Feb. 19)- Bolstered by endorsement, Feb. 12 loser wins Wisconsin, is close in Hawaii. Media narrative changes.
If it’s Edwards that endorses, the race is over, that one wins the rest. Otherwise, they continue trading March contests back and forth until Edwards endorses. He’ll be needed to put anyone over the top.
Will that all happen? Probably not. But I think it’d be pretty exciting!
Now, other predictions:
Canadian Federal Election, 2009: Liberals hold steady, Conservatives lose some, NDP picks up enough to form a coalition with the Liberals. Bloc Quebecois begin a slow and steady decline into obscurity.
Michigan 7th Congressional District, 2008: Mark Schauer (D) beats Tim Walberg (R), 56-42.
World Series Winner, 2008: Detroit Tigers.
Next season’s BCS Champions: Northwestern University Wildcats. Yeah, you heard me right.
Tomorrow’s weather: Tonight, snow, possibly a rain-snow mix (uck!). Tomorrow, cold, mostly cloudy, light snow. That’s here, anyway. The rest of you, I haven’t got any idea.
Let me take this opportunity to thank DavidNYC and James L., and the loyal commenters here, for an excellent political blog that I look forward to reading every time I log on. Happy New Year!
First, the Republican Primary is often known for Iowa and New Hampshire giving 2 different results, and so I don't take their results into consideration.
2nd, the only elections that were really contested were 1976, where Carter went on to win the nomination, 1988, where the Gephardt win was not enough to boost him nationally (but he DID get quite a bump regardless, he was just so low before) and 2004, where Kerry's victory in Iowa famously catapulted him from the graveyard to the nomination. You could argue '84 was also competitive, but Hart conceded it for the most part and focused on NH, and '92, but again, Iowa was conceded to favorite son Harkin.
And, no, I don't think money played the role to victory for Kerry, it was all the momentum after winning contest after contest, partially being helped by the split votes between Edwards/Clark/Dean. It was all momentum the entire way. Edwards got a small bump from South Carolina and an additional bump from his very strong showing in Wisconsin, but unfortunately for him, the nomination was already decided and won by Kerry.
This time will be different, of course; electability and beating Bush is not the main question in people's minds. But 10 points within the head in New Hampshire? That's a very nice place to be if you win Iowa.
versus Huckabee or McCain, any “disadvantage”, which by the way I think is totally BS as we've been doing public financing for a very long time now, is a “wash” or on equal playing field (even to Edwards advantage possibly, as he still fundraises better than both and that does make SOME difference in the primary, primarily for organization).
against Romney, I joke that it takes him about a million bucks to get a vote only to lose it 2 weeks later. I don't think any financial advantage for Romney will overcome the fact that he is still freaking Mitt Romney. I hope he's the nominee.
Dems:
Obama/Edwards/Clinton
GOP:
Huckabee/Romney/McCain/PAul
Thompson will drop out by Saturday.
If Huck does win, McCain will win NH and be in the driver’s seat for the nomination.