(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)
(Cross-posted from DKos)
As a certified political junkie, I actually have the filing deadlines for each state on my calendar. Yesterday, Ohio’s filing deadline came and went. Unlike Texas, which saw nine of their 32 incumbents wind up unopposed (including, unfortunately, six of their Republican incumbents), it is a full field of candidates in Ohio.
Furthermore, there are some interesting primary elections which will kick off the Buckeye State campaign season early in March.
Follow me past the jump for the list and the analysis.
First of all, the list. I scoured official and media resources Saturday morning, so there may be some mistakes. Clean them up in the comments, if you find one…
OH 01 (DEM): Steve DriehausOH 01 (GOP): Rep. Steve Chabot
OH 02 (DEM): Steve Black, Victoria Wulsin, William Smith
OH 02 (GOP): Rep. Jean Schmidt, Tom Brinkman, Phil Heimlich, Nathan Bailey
OH 03 (DEM): David Esrati, Jane Mitakides, Charles W. Sanders
OH 03 (GOP): Rep. Mike Turner
OH 04 (DEM): Mike Carroll
OH 04 (GOP): Rep. Jim Jordan
OH 05 (DEM): George Mays
OH 05 (GOP): Rep. Bob Latta, Scott Radcliffe, Michael Reynolds
OH 06 (DEM): Rep. Charlie Wilson
OH 06 (GOP): A Republican candidate filed, could not find a name.
OH 07 (DEM): Bill Conner, Sharen Neuhardt, Jack Null, Thomas Scrivens, David Woolever, Richard Wyderski
OH 07 (GOP): Steve Austria, Dan Harkins, Ron Hood, John Mitchel
OH 08 (DEM): Mort Meier, Nicholas Vonstein
OH 08 (GOP): Rep. John Boehner
OH 09 (DEM): Rep. Marcy Kaptur
OH 09 (GOP): Bradley Leavitt
OH 10 (DEM): Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Cimperman, Thomas O’Grady, Rosemary Palmer, Barbara Ferris
OH 10 (GOP): Jim Trakas, Jason Werner
OH 11 (DEM): Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones
OH 11 (GOP): Thomas Pekarek, Bob Saffold
OH 12 (DEM): Aaron Dagres, Marc Fagin, Russ Goodwin, David Robinson
OH 12 (GOP): Rep. Pat Tiberi, David Ryon
OH 13 (DEM): Rep. Betty Sutton
OH 13 (GOP): Frank Chestney, Frances Kalapodis, David Potter
OH 14 (DEM): Bill O’Neill, Dale Blanchard, John Greene
OH 14 (GOP): Rep. Steve LaTourette
OH 15 (DEM): Mary Jo Kilroy
OH 15 (GOP): Ralph Applegate, Charles Chope, John Diamond, Steve Stivers, Robert Wagner
OH 16 (DEM): John Boccieri, Mary Cirelli
OH 16 (GOP): Matt Miller, Paul Schiffer, Kirk Schuring
OH 17 (DEM): Rep. Tim Ryan
OH 17 (GOP): Duane Grassell
OH 18 (DEM): Rep. Zack Space, Mark Pitrone
OH 18 (GOP): Beau Bromberg, Fred Dailey, Jeannette Moll, Paul Phillips
Now, here is my analysis of the PRIMARY ELECTIONS:
OH-02: This might be the most intriguing primary of them all on March 4th. The Democratic side of the equation might be more competitive than you think, as Steve Black has already raised well into six figures in his attempt to deny Vic Wulsin a second shot at the brass ring. Wulsin has never stopped running from her solid 2006 run, which saw her come within two points of the incumbent.
The incumbent might have been saved by seeing (yet again!) two legitimate Republicans file against her. Both Brinkman and Heimlich have records as elected officials, and both will bring resources to the table. Watch Schmidt escape again with a 35-30-30-5 win.
OH-07: What was thought to be a coronation for state Senator Steve Austria has grown more complicated as time has gone on. Late in the game, former state Representative Ron Hood decided to make the show. Both Harkins and Mitchel have the threat of being serious candidates. Austria is still the bettors’ favorite, and looks good for the general as well.
OH-10: Time will tell if Dennis Kucinich’s vanity run for President will cost him back home. Like Schmidt, he probably benefits from the fact that there is a multi-candidate field in front of him. Cimperman is a city councilman in Cleveland, O’Grady is the mayor of North Olmstead, Palmer has generated some attention, and Ferris has run before (only getting 24% of the vote in 2006). Republicans probably are running one of their strongest candidates in former state rep. Jim Trakas, but this is a district where Kucinich’s closest race (in 2004) held him to a mere 60%.
OH-16: At the last second, Democratic plans to have an uncomplicated run here were foiled when a longtime city official (Mary Cirelli) got into the race against party-anointed state senator John Boccieri. It is questionable whether the sixty-something Cirelli will present a serious threat to Boccieri, who has the blessing of many county party officials, as well as a formidable war chest. On the GOP side, it is a free-for-all between Matt Miller (who ran tough against the retiring Ralph Regula in 2006), state senator Kirk Schuring, and right-wing talk radio host Paul Schiffer.
THE GENERAL ELECTION IN OHIO:
There are several seats to watch in Ohio. The good news: they are pretty much entirely in Republican hands.
Of the three Democratic freshmen in Ohio, only Zack Space is facing opposition that anyone would take seriously. Even in this race (OH-18), no one sees this as a toss-up. Space wiping the floor with Joy Padgett probably scared off higher-caliber competition. Meanwhile, both Charlie Wilson (OH-06) and Betty Sutton (OH-13) face nominal opposition.
Meanwhile, there are first-tier GOP targets all over the map. Principal among these are the pair of open seats in central Ohio: the Columbus-based 15th district and the Canton-based 16th district. Both are swing districts (the 15th a bit more favorable to Dems). Mary Jo Kilroy, after nearly disposing of Deb Pryce in 2006, did not draw a primary challenger. Now she lies in wait, presumably to face GOP recruit Steve Stivers, a state senator who got in after initially demurring from a challenge. Over in the 16th district, Boccieri is the best candidate the Dems could have hoped for, and he will likely benefit from a brutal GOP primary. Expect Schuring to emerge from it. Also expect at least one of these seats to go Democratic in November.
There are also a number of GOP incumbents being looked at. The Cincy metro area sees the two most prized targets in third-term Rep. Jean Schmidt (OH-02) and class of 1994 Rep. Steve Chabot (OH-01). Democrats think that they might have finally found the right candidate for Chabot in the person of state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Of course, they thought that when Roxanne Qualls ran in 1998, and they also thought that when Cranley ran here in 2006. Jean Schmidt, meanwhile, must first survive the GOP primary. If she does (and she is the betting favorite), she will square off most likely in a 2006 rematch with Vic Wulsin. It was one of the closest races in America in 2006, and would promise to be so again, especially since the DCCC is unlikely to be a late arrival in the race this time around.
Other possible races to watch: Judge Bill O’Neill making a run at another Class of 1994 incumbent, Republican Steve LaTourette (OH-14). Democrat Jane Mitakides, who ran a well-funded race in the Dayton-based 3rd district, will take another swing at Republican Rep. Mike Turner. In the Columbus-based 12th district, Pat Tiberi will never be able to rest TOO easy, but he will be a favorite over the Democrats.
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and voting for 4. There’s virtually no chance we’ll take only one. I’m pretty confident we can take at least 3. 4 would be heaven and 5….well, we can dream, can’t we? Still, it IS possible! My own priority is getting Bill O’Neill elected in 14, the district adjoining mine. I live in 11 where I’m amused to see THREE Republicans stepping up for the chance to be crushed by Stephanie Tubbs Jones in our plus-33 Democratic district. The Ohio-10 race is very interesting with Rosemary Palmer having been running since last July, disagreeing more with Dennis’s strategy than his politics (she’s a former supporter of his) and Cleveland downtown city councilman Joe Cimperman who neither lives in nor represents more than a tiniest sliver of the district parachuting in at the last minute with a thick bankroll of corporate developer cash, the Cleveland Plainly Republican (Plain Dealer) ludicrously overpraising him and his likely impact on the race and no positions at all on any issue – for someone being promoted as the first “serious challenger” to Dennis, his campaign so far, so totally last minutey that he only got his web site up this week, almost a month after he announced and there’s virtually nothing on it, looks haphazard. It’s also not going to look good for Joe when he has to reveal where his cash is mainly coming from. The Plainly Republican can call him the “populist” til the cows come home but it’s going to look like the big developers are trying to purchase the congressional seat, just like they purchased a county commissioner seat to railroad through an unneeded, probably disastrous convention center/medical mart project. And no matter how many TV commercials his money enables him to run, he’s going to need a stronger message than the only one he’s flogged so far which is “Dennis hasn’t been around and I’ll be a fulltime congressman.” That’s no reason to vote for him rather than Rosemary or Barbara or Thomas, particularly since my feel having spent a bunch of time talking to people in the district is that they’re not so much unhappy with Dennis’s stands – they’re not looking for a more corporate-friendly guy – as with his presidential run. And that will be over before the nex congress begins.
So Weirauch filed only for the special election, while George May filed for both? is that what happened?
Since George May couldn’t even win the Democratic primary, I presume that would mean that only a last-minute surprise before the general election could flip the new incumbent out of his red seat. A pity.
It’s hard to find a Republican who will run 10 points behind their national ticket and still win. In 2004, only Barbara Cubin fit the bill. With the retirement of John Doolittle yesterday following Barbara Cubin’s exit, it is nice to know that at least one terrible GOPer remains as a target: Jean Schmidt. With scandal hanging over him, Don Young (AK-At Large)could join the group. Scott Garrett (NJ-5) is so out of touch with his moderate Republican district that he, too, is trending towards this category.