41 thoughts on “New Hampshire Open Thread”

  1. DEMOCRATS

    Obama-42

    Clinton-32

    Edwards-20

    Richardson-5

    Kucinech-1

    REPUBLICANS

    McCain-33

    Romney-29

    Huckabee-14

    Paul-12

    Giulliani-9

    Thompson-3

    Hunter- <1

  2. Obama 43%

    Clinton 29%

    Edwards 22%

    Richardson 4%

    Kucinich 1%

    Mitt Romney  36%

    John McCain  35%  

    Mike Huckabee  14%

    Ron Paul  6%

    Rudy Giuliani  6%

    Fred Thompson  4%  

  3. Record turnout.  The Secretary of State has to work to make sure more ballots get to towns that need them.  Probably over 500,000 people votinng for Democrats.  

  4. That is why I am giving Romney +1% over McCain.

    Clinton and Romney receive a lot of their support from party members, but McCain and Obama are more dependant on interdependent voters. Romney might edge out a win due to the bandwagon effect from Obama perceived big win in Iowa.

    The media loves to over hype a story and the biggest over hype was Obama in Iowa.  According to cnn Obama picked up 18, Edwards 17, and Clinton 16 delegates in Iowa. The media also seemed to make a big deal of Clinton ending out in third. The difference between Edwards and Clinton was only 0.28%. That is one voter out of every 400. The race is going to be a long one. Too bad my candidate, Richardson, has no chance to win.

    Between Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, I have no preference. I would prefer Clinton or Edwards because it seems like Oprah is trying to hijack the election. Of course Obama is ten times better than any of the GOP candidates.

    The keys to today:

    Democrats: Clinton can not get third. If so the media will perceive her as the big loser. She needs to be relatively close to Obama too. Anything less than a 6 point loss for Clinton to Obama is a win. Edwards must get second to get any type of support in the race.

    Republicans: Romney must win. If he does not, his votes are going to Huckabee in the future. McCain needs a win but can survive with a very strong second.

    Democrats

    Obama – On the way up.

    Clinton – Still in decent shape.

    Edwards – In survival mode.

    Republicans

    Huckabee and McCain – On the way up.

    Romney – On the way down but the ships is going in reverse.

    Giuliani – Waiting for Florida but in survival mode.

    Thompson – Give it up.

  5. Clinton may bypass SC for the big states afterwards.  

    McCain and Romney battle for MI and it will get very nasty.  

  6. is how the independent voters split tonight. Just tons of independents and cross-over republicans made a huge difference in IA, and my gut tells me that they will do this tonight and that this trend will most likely continue until the GE.

    If the INDs go the way I think they will, then this could be bad news for McCain, but probably good news for the DEMS as a result, for I think a Romney candidacy is most likely poison for the GOP, only the republicans are scared to voice these thoughts.

    The polls that are taken as of Jan. 9 until Super-duper-throw-in-the-kitchen-sink-root-hog-or-die Tuesday will also be fascinating to watch!

  7. 48 hours ago, I would have predicted double-digit blowouts for both Obama and McCain, but Obama should so thoroughly dominate the independent vote that McCain will suffer for it.  Beyond that, Willard is said to be gaining a little steam since a strong debate performance Sunday night where he visibly bested McCain.  With this in mind:

    Obama 43

    Hillary 31

    Edwards 21

    Richardson 5

    McCain  31

    Willard 29

    Paul 15

    Huckabee 13

    Giuliani 9

    Thompson 2

    Hunter/Others 1  

  8. Exit poll update: Clinton ahead

    New exit poll estimates: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, 39%; Sen. Barack Obama, 37%.

    McCain wins as expected. Romney is going to have a hard time after losing the two states he has tried very hard to win.

    1. Governors usually beat Senators. So why root for a Governor to go up against our Senators?

      For further info, please consult

      Gov Bush

      Gov Clinton

      Gov Reagan

      Gov Carter

      Gov Roosevelt

      Gov Harding

      Gov Wilson

      Gov Taft

      Gov Roosevelt

      Gov McKinley.

      But please don’t consult

      Gov Dukakis or Gov Dewey.

      They  feel bad enough already.

  9. It was naive to assume Hillary would be ‘coronated’ before a single vote was cast.

    It was naive to think that losing one caucas meant Hillary was finished.

    It IS naive to think that Obama is finishd after losing one primary by 2.5%.

    Obama is well positioned for both Nevada and SC.  Will Hillary get yet another obituary if/when she losses those?

    Edwards is less and less relevant, and that means it is turning into a two candidate race.  Not a good thing from HRC’s perspective, IMO.

    IMO, Obama is far superior to Hillary in terms of excitement, being able to ‘define’ the general election in terms favorable to Dems, bring in new voters, and especially down-ballot affect.  

    Her high negatives are not going to go away, in fact the GOP will work night and day to reinforce them.  At least with Obama, they have less to work with.    

    55/45 is a landslide BTW. Clinton won re-election with 49% in ’96.    

    1. change in the Republican Party. They voted for the Republican they thought was most unlike Bush (why McCain is beyond me, but from what I hear from Republicans, he’s unlike Bush)

      I still don’t think America is looking for leftward change, it’s looking for a change from Bush, but if it’s from a Republican, then that’s great.  

  10. The Democrats are being a friend to McCain today by not participating in the primary. I think McCain will pull out Michigan because of this. I am thinking the margin will be small.

    John McCain  29%

    Mitt Romney 27%

    Mike Huckabee 19%  

    Fred Thompson 9%

    Ron Paul 7%

    Rudy Giuliani 7%  

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