Republicans, Democrats, predictions, results. It’s all yours.
Or will you prove countmippipopolous right?
UPDATE: Wow. Was there a soul alive who called this one for Clinton? This is turning out to be the greatest horserace of all time. I hereby dub it “The Geakness Stakes.”
But I hope I’m wrong and Romney wins! Obama would eat Romney for breakfast.
DEMOCRATS
Obama-42
Clinton-32
Edwards-20
Richardson-5
Kucinech-1
REPUBLICANS
McCain-33
Romney-29
Huckabee-14
Paul-12
Giulliani-9
Thompson-3
Hunter- <1
Obama 43%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 22%
Richardson 4%
Kucinich 1%
Mitt Romney 36%
John McCain 35%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Ron Paul 6%
Rudy Giuliani 6%
Fred Thompson 4%
Record turnout. The Secretary of State has to work to make sure more ballots get to towns that need them. Probably over 500,000 people votinng for Democrats.
That is why I am giving Romney +1% over McCain.
Clinton and Romney receive a lot of their support from party members, but McCain and Obama are more dependant on interdependent voters. Romney might edge out a win due to the bandwagon effect from Obama perceived big win in Iowa.
The media loves to over hype a story and the biggest over hype was Obama in Iowa. According to cnn Obama picked up 18, Edwards 17, and Clinton 16 delegates in Iowa. The media also seemed to make a big deal of Clinton ending out in third. The difference between Edwards and Clinton was only 0.28%. That is one voter out of every 400. The race is going to be a long one. Too bad my candidate, Richardson, has no chance to win.
Between Obama, Clinton, and Edwards, I have no preference. I would prefer Clinton or Edwards because it seems like Oprah is trying to hijack the election. Of course Obama is ten times better than any of the GOP candidates.
The keys to today:
Democrats: Clinton can not get third. If so the media will perceive her as the big loser. She needs to be relatively close to Obama too. Anything less than a 6 point loss for Clinton to Obama is a win. Edwards must get second to get any type of support in the race.
Republicans: Romney must win. If he does not, his votes are going to Huckabee in the future. McCain needs a win but can survive with a very strong second.
Democrats
Obama – On the way up.
Clinton – Still in decent shape.
Edwards – In survival mode.
Republicans
Huckabee and McCain – On the way up.
Romney – On the way down but the ships is going in reverse.
Giuliani – Waiting for Florida but in survival mode.
Thompson – Give it up.
Clinton may bypass SC for the big states afterwards.
McCain and Romney battle for MI and it will get very nasty.
is how the independent voters split tonight. Just tons of independents and cross-over republicans made a huge difference in IA, and my gut tells me that they will do this tonight and that this trend will most likely continue until the GE.
If the INDs go the way I think they will, then this could be bad news for McCain, but probably good news for the DEMS as a result, for I think a Romney candidacy is most likely poison for the GOP, only the republicans are scared to voice these thoughts.
The polls that are taken as of Jan. 9 until Super-duper-throw-in-the-kitchen-sink-root-hog-or-die Tuesday will also be fascinating to watch!
Obama 42%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 22%
Richardson 9%
McCain 30%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 11%
Giuliani 8%
48 hours ago, I would have predicted double-digit blowouts for both Obama and McCain, but Obama should so thoroughly dominate the independent vote that McCain will suffer for it. Beyond that, Willard is said to be gaining a little steam since a strong debate performance Sunday night where he visibly bested McCain. With this in mind:
Obama 43
Hillary 31
Edwards 21
Richardson 5
McCain 31
Willard 29
Paul 15
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 9
Thompson 2
Hunter/Others 1
Exit poll update: Clinton ahead
New exit poll estimates: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, 39%; Sen. Barack Obama, 37%.
McCain wins as expected. Romney is going to have a hard time after losing the two states he has tried very hard to win.
Governors usually beat Senators. So why root for a Governor to go up against our Senators?
For further info, please consult
Gov Bush
Gov Clinton
Gov Reagan
Gov Carter
Gov Roosevelt
Gov Harding
Gov Wilson
Gov Taft
Gov Roosevelt
Gov McKinley.
But please don’t consult
Gov Dukakis or Gov Dewey.
They feel bad enough already.
It was naive to assume Hillary would be ‘coronated’ before a single vote was cast.
It was naive to think that losing one caucas meant Hillary was finished.
It IS naive to think that Obama is finishd after losing one primary by 2.5%.
Obama is well positioned for both Nevada and SC. Will Hillary get yet another obituary if/when she losses those?
Edwards is less and less relevant, and that means it is turning into a two candidate race. Not a good thing from HRC’s perspective, IMO.
IMO, Obama is far superior to Hillary in terms of excitement, being able to ‘define’ the general election in terms favorable to Dems, bring in new voters, and especially down-ballot affect.
Her high negatives are not going to go away, in fact the GOP will work night and day to reinforce them. At least with Obama, they have less to work with.
55/45 is a landslide BTW. Clinton won re-election with 49% in ’96.
change in the Republican Party. They voted for the Republican they thought was most unlike Bush (why McCain is beyond me, but from what I hear from Republicans, he’s unlike Bush)
I still don’t think America is looking for leftward change, it’s looking for a change from Bush, but if it’s from a Republican, then that’s great.
The Democrats are being a friend to McCain today by not participating in the primary. I think McCain will pull out Michigan because of this. I am thinking the margin will be small.
John McCain 29%
Mitt Romney 27%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Fred Thompson 9%
Ron Paul 7%
Rudy Giuliani 7%