Republican Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia announced that he will not seek reelection, issuing a release announcing his retirement this afternoon.
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Davis’ Northern Virginia district has been trending in a Democratic direction over the past decades, and offers Democrats a good opportunity to pick up the seat. Already Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Gerry Connolly (D) has formed an exploratory committee, and has high name identification in the district.
Former Rep. Leslie Byrne and retired Naval officer Doug Denneny have also announced their candidacies on the Democratic side.
Businessman Keith Fimian is a leading candidate on the Republican side; he has already raised over $350,000 in individual donation over the past six months.
(Thanks to long-time SSPer Caped Composer for the catch.)
What’s the PVI of VA-11?
James L. needs to compile his list of retirements more often. It triggered a gusher. One today, two yesterday, two more at the end of last week. Five in a week. Hey, do the Republicans know something we don’t?
The GOP erosion in Fairfax County has been a long-term slide. The demographics have changed. Huge Hispanic population on eastern rim of district, along with a pretty good chunk of Dem-trending Asians, Arabs and Indian scattered throughout.
This seat reminds me of Bob Dornan’s seat in Orange County, Cali. Immigration transformed it from a bastion of white Goldwater/Reagan GOP to a multi-ethnic hodepodge where even the whites were trending brie-chomping Rockefeller Republicans and Guilty White Lib.
Look at the transformation of the Business Roundtable there from GOP-leaning to Dem-leaning… from screaming for keeping Va a business friendly low-tax, non-union state to hollering til they are blue for more transportation infrastructure, school spending, and all sorts of stateist policies they would not have originally supported.
Davis was reflective of the former moderate Republican consensus (whose margin rested on disaffected conservatives having nowhere else to go). Now the demos have changed to where they no longer can construct a natural majority. They have become Arlington. Well, almost. And they will.
Among whites, the make-up of the electorate has changed as the lower middle-class whites have moved farther west into PW Loudon and even as far as the I-81 corridor as housing prices skyrocketed.
I’d say this a Dem-leaning seat at this point. The loss Davis’ wife took last fall in the legislative election gives an even better reflection that this district has passed the tipping point. She lost in what were his core precincts.
OK, Davis was POd the right wing of the state party nixed his Senate bid… but his wife’s loss really gave him a wake-up call his district has evolved to where even his holding it was problematic.
The Dems will pick this one up.