From a Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC, 2/16-20 (likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Maffei (D): 41%
Peter Cappuccilli (R): 29%
Undecided: 30%Dan Maffei (D): 41%
Randy Wolken (R): 25%
Undecided: 34%
MoE: ±6.9%
With a margin of error that high, the quality of this poll is a somewhat questionable. Still, it’s not hard to believe the results, given the district’s clear Democratic lean: John Kerry won the CD by 2% in 2004, and Al Gore took the district by 6% four years earlier. With the GOP brand cratering in New York state, Maffei is the clear front-runner here.
With the large number of undecideds, I wonder if there’s a name recognition element. Maffei did run last time, so I’m guessing that Maffei has a name recognition edge.
The poll link is only one page, and there’s no data on the question.
Please, don’t confuse these two concepts. The MoE has nothing to do with the quality of a poll, only with the sample size. All MoE numbers assume that the poll is done perfectly.
This type of message confuses bias with precision
I’ve done diaries on this over at dailyKos, I could post them here, if there’s interest….
While this is clearly encouraging news, I will take it with a grain of salt. The large number of undecideds makes me worry a little bit. I hope to see them sway towards Dan as the race progresses.