Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Bill McCamley, 3/17-19 (likely Democratic primary voters, no trendlines):
Bill McCamley (D): 43%
Harry Teague (D): 22%
Undecided: 35%
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Teague, a former Lea County Commissioner, is a self-funder who can pour in a decent amount of cash in an attempt to close the gap with Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley. For now, at least, McCamley has the clear edge.
I don’t know a thing about NM or its politics. Is there someone the progressive community is more likely to get behind?
check out his speech at the recent pre-primary convention: http://www.youtube.com/watchbill
if this is another case of a sacrificial lamb who is suddenly in a fight for an open seat. McCamley was running early against pearce and was unlikely to even make it close. then pearce went for senate, cervantes looked like the frontrunner, teague promised to spend what he needed to win and commissioner mccamley was in a tough primary. NM-2 is a deeply conservative district (R-6) and i generally think (at odds with some progressives), a fairly conservative democrat is our best chance. but unlike many sacrifical lambs, mccamley has legitimate electoral experience. so maybe he can win – and if he’s running a better campaign, then maybe he’s our better candidate (not a certainty).
i guess i see him as most like mcnerney in california, who was generally seen as too far to the left for his district but beat a republican and is better than even money to hold the seat this year.
so i am absolutely wishy washy (bang my fist on desk).
35% undecided is big. Endorsements are likely to matter a lot, because I can’t see this being an immensely high-profile race.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if McCamley can take it. Dona Ana County is much bigger and more urban than Lea County, so he potentially has a much larger base.