SurveyUSA (registered voters, 4/7):
Christine Gregoire (D-inc): 48%
Dino Rossi (R): 47%
(MoE: ±4.1%)
No surprises here. Despite the tossup status in the polls so far, I’m feeling fairly optimistic here. Gregoire has had a pretty steady first term, and Rossi will be playing in an unfavorable environment this year.
We have a Cash on Hand advantage of
Cash On Hand – $3,110,586 v. $1,303,571
over 2 to 1, and our fundraising is closer to 3 to 1.
Total Raised — $4,665,352 v. $1,707,197
Better presidential coattails, good fundraising… I’m not worried yet.
Given the incumbency factor, political winds, most likely having Obama as our nominee and blue state factor, I’m definitely liking our chances to hold.
CQ has this as Lean Democrat, but Toss-up is probably a safer category. At this point one poll is interesting, but I’ll wait for trends before making any predictions based on it.
The most recent numbers from the Washington governors race showed Christine Gregoire having 2.95 million in the bank and Dino Rossi having 2.001 million in the bank. This was as of end of February.
Rossi is said to have raised over 900,000 in March, and Gregoire’s numbers will certainly be low due to the fundraising freeze during the first half of the month.
I expect the difference in COH to be in the 250K range when March is reported.
with Rasmussen (Apr. 2: 47 G, 46 R) (Mar. 5: 47 R, 46 G), and also with Grove (Jan. 22?: 43 G, 41 R). Other pollsters have had a wider margin for Gregoire, like Washington Poll (Feb. 24: 54 G, 42 R) (late Oct.?: 47 G, 42 R) and Elway (Jan. 14: 48 G, 35 R). I think this is the first time Survey USA has polled the race; their crosstabs looked pretty plausible.
It’s been frustrating, the guy is not even moderate, he’s really conservative if you actually listen to him, like McCain only worse. How does he win over all these moderates, Gregoire is closer to the Center than him. All he is is some random, washed up State Senator, he wasn’t even a current state senator when he ran last time.