Democrat Travis Childers, running for the open seat left behind by now-Senator Roger Wicker, has released his fourth TV ad:
Pay very close attention to the text at the bottom of the ad:
Paid For By the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Childers For Congress
Yup, that’s right — the DCCC is now pouring resources into the first congressional district of Mississippi. No word yet on the exact sum spent so far (the cap on coordinated expenditures such as this is $42K), but I wouldn’t be surprised if the NRCC scrambles to respond in the next couple of days as they attempt to douse a fire in this R+10 district.
Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.
(H/T: Cotton Mouth)
Previous Diaries:
MS-01: New Poll Shows a Dead Heat Between Childers and Davis
MS-01: Does Travis Childers Have a Shot?
Also, going for the kill on the first possible Special General election. YES! This is what I was talking about!
We’ve seen the case for Childers. One simple stat says a lot. Democrats hold 20 House seats with PVis of R+6 or worse; Republicans hold 1 House seat with a PVI of D+6 or worse. Seven of the Democrats hold seats with PVIs worse than R+10; no Republican seat is a worse fit than Delaware at D+7.
Hitting the economic themes again and again and again.
We lost in the Ohio special election beacuse all our canidate would talk about was wish washy getting along. We won in Illinois because Foster focused on the economy and how Iraq was hurting the economy.
Childers has the first part. Now he has to do his version of this ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Any idea on how expensive the media market is? Honestly I think the DCCC should go all out. Drop a million into the race.
If we go into November having won three straight elections in deep red districts that will give us HUGE momentum.
Some seats with a Democratic PVI are going basically unchallenged (or appear to be). When do we go after them?
Starting at the top:
DE-At Large, D+7
NJ-2, D+4
PA-6, D+2.2
FL-10, D+1
NY-23, R+0.2
We are running hard in :
CT-4, D+5
IL-10, D+4
NJ-3, D+3.3
NY-25, D+3
WA-8, D+2
NM-1, D+2
MI-9, R+0
Literally dozens of seats are up for grabs. Makes me wonder if the Congressional lean and the Presidential lean need to be split into two separate fault lines?
Nore help needed?
IA-4, r+0
NV-3, D+1
PA-15, D+2
Isn’t as scary as the R+10 hue of a district like OH-10, for instance, due to the Dixiecrat overhang of the area. Northeast Mississippi is considered the “swing” area of state elections (Musgrove won it in ’99, but lost it four years later), so this race is contestable with a guy like Childers.
Doesn’t mean that we’ll win, but it’ll definitely be a race to watch.
Ratings Changes on 4/10 from Cook Political Report:
LA-06- VACANT (Baker)- Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MS-01- VACANT (Wicker)- Solid Republican to Lean Republican
TX-22- Lampson- Lean Democratic to Toss Up
So before MS-01, we see LA-06 going from Toss-up status to Lean Democrat! That’s fantastic news from an unbiased organization showing what all of us are hoping for in that special election in LA-06.
As for MS-01 for Wicker’s seat, there is a big jump from SOLID (aka SAFE) Republican to just Lean Republican. So there is an advantage given the GOP territory, but it’s a competitive contest that can be taken by the challenger.
We have to note that TX-22 is a Toss-up (of which I already thought it was given the district). The primary got rid of Sekula-Gibbs that the DEMs were hoping would win the primary, and now the GOP has a legit candidate in place with Olson. Can Lampson hold on with being the incumbent and the Democratic environment? Hope so!
Anyhow, great news for MS-01 and LA-06!
His party? Is technically not on the ballot? Is that what you meant?
If you look at his previous ads in this race, he usually ends it saying that he’s a Democrat running for Congress.
while winning 41% statewide.
Nice subtle tactic of not noting Childers party affiliation, for an election where his name is not technically on the ballot.
Granted, usually the criticisms of not using party labels in ads are overblown.
if wicker wins the rest of lott’s term come nov. and childers wins and keeps this seat, he could be a good candidate in the future. if musgrove defeats wicker, then cochran should be retiring soon, so hopefully he’ll win and we’ll have a future senator in the waiting.
I thought the national campaign committees weren’t allowed to coordinate with the campaigns themselves. That they could say “vote for this guy” or “don’t vote for that guy”, but they couldn’t have the candidates themselves making their own case on the DCCC or NRCC dime.