| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Childers | (D) | 33,138 | 49% |
| Greg Davis | (R) | 31,066 | 46% |
| Steve Holland | (D) | 782 | 1% |
| Glenn McCullough | (R) | 957 | 1% |
| Wally Pang | (I) | 724 | 1% |
| John Wages | (G) | 397 | 1% |
RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | WCBI | Clarion-Ledger
11:09PM: Ladies and gentlemen — give it up for SSP’s Trent Thompson! With all the votes in, Childers is sitting at 49.39% and short 409 votes of an outright victory tonight — awfully close to his projection at 10:45.
10:54PM (Trent): With a little more help, Childers could have put this race away tonight. Let’s help make sure we don’t have the same regrets on runoff night.
10:45PM: SSP’s Trent Thompson: “If the other Prentiss boxes come in at the county’s percentages, Childers gets 49.367 and would have needed 400 more votes to top 50.”
10:42PM: Wow, we came SO CLOSE to winning a seat in Mississippi tonight, but the AP just called this as going to a runoff on May 13th. So close, yet so far.
10:31PM: NOTE — The Dispatch has 100% of the Clay County numbers in, and they split 65-29 (1,609-722) for Childers. These are NOT reflected in the numbers above.
10:25PM: NOTE — The Clarion/AP numbers don’t count Clay county yet, but the Columbus Dispatch shows Childers carrying the county with 63%.
10:23PM: Childers has pulled ahead by 300 votes!
10:14PM: It’s close — 47% Childers, 48% Davis. There’s probably not enough votes out there to put Childers above the top, but the good news is that the votes likely aren’t there for Davis, either.
9:59PM: 47% Childers, 49% Davis. This is gonna be tight.
9:42PM: Check the Clarion-Ledger for the best results. DeSoto is ALL in, so there’s a chance that Childers will force a runoff here.
9:31PM: Damn! Davis has pulled ahead. Are we seeing DeSoto come in?
9:06PM: A word of caution — I don’t know if Davis’ homebase, GOP-heavy DeSoto county, has started to report yet. I suspect that it has not. Brace yourselves for it, though.
9:03PM Eastern: In Lowndes County, Childers only trails Davis by 4. This is a pretty Republican county, so I take that as good news for Childers.
Polls close at 7PM Central/8PM Eastern in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District. We’ll be tracking the returns above as they come in.
Feel free to use the grace period to post your predictions in the comments.
For what it’s worth, here were the vote totals from the April 1st primary runoff:
| Candidate | Votes |
|---|---|
| Travis Childers | 20,729 |
| Steve Holland | 15,439 |
| Greg Davis | 16,830 |
| Glenn McCullough | 16,305 |
It’s doubtful that either candidate will reach 50% and we are stuck with the runoff. Which is what day again? 5/3? 5/6?
GO Childers!!!!
How do you change your profile name?
I was once a Edwards supporter then a STRONG HILLARY supporter, and when Obama gave his Race speech I switched to him. GO OBAMA!!! GO CHILDERS!!!
Some reliable sources are telling me that voter turnout was low in Davis’s home county of DeSoto. That can only be good news for Childers.
Childers 46.5, Davis 44.5, McCullough 7, others 2.
Goes to runoff, national GOP leans on McCullough, he in turn does more to consolidate his support under Davis, Davis wins a very very expensive runoff, by several points. McCullough gets some kind of swanky payback in the dim future. NRCC is damaged even though it holds the seat. Davis wins reelection in Nov 08.
I arrived at this prediction using the Stoller rule: the most irritating outcome is the likely one.
Childers 62%
Davis 32%
Holding up at 57%!
Still leading over the 50% marker: 56-39
The fact that Childers is at least going to be close, if not win this, is quite amazing to me.
at 56.
Man. If he goes to Washington tomorow. That would be huge.
Childers at 51% with 13% reporting.
The fact that our guys is leading, still by over 50%, in a special election in ALABAMA is simply stunning.
Yeah, we can worry about runoffs and all such, but come one. A Dem winning a special election in ALABAMA?!?
God bless the Democratic Party in MS-01 and everyone who gave energy, time and money on this one.
(Oh, and go Judy Feder!)
Bah. Two long.
Congressman Gene Taylor (Ms-04) gave $2,000 to Travis Childers to help out with this campaign.
I’m really liking the Democratic unity we have right now, I hope we can take this one!
16% reporting: 53-43
I hope the remaining precincts have very few voters and are located in childer’s base.
Davis – 48%
Childers – 46%
Who is Steve Holland (D)?
If his 2% (currently) of the votes costs Childers the win that would REALLY suck …
Childers 56
Davis 39
46% in: 46-50
52-44
Grr. Can’t we at least get a runoff?
and I have been a obama activist since draft obama.
the presidential race right now.
Here’s a link to all the vote totals. All the results from DeSoto County are in.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f…
That’s on 5/3.
I guess now the best hope is to keep Davis under 50% so there is a run-off where there is somehow a chance for the Democrats to come back.
Call me a ginormous idiot. I blame Pennsylvania. 🙂
Now that DeSoto County has fully reported, let’s look at the counties that have and have not reported.
Childers did very well in Lee County, home of Senator Wicker.
Travis Childer’s home county of Prentiss has not reported yet. He should do very well there.
Clay County is historically very Democratic so that should be good.
Lafayette County will be about half and half. It’s a college town, so a lot of educated liberals will get out and vote – I used to vote there.
Grenada County will be about half and half with a Democratic edge.
Benton and Calhoun Counties will have a Democratic edge.
is 50% African American population, still remains.
51% Davis
45% Childers
We still have three areas that should come out big for Childers
As a more practical question, where are results coming in from?
Childers 57
Davis 38
Childers 53%
Davis 43%
Now 50-46% Davis. Hopefully it’s DeSoto all coming in.
Davis is below 50%. Let’s keep him there!
Coming back strong, still 10 more precincts there.
Hold on to your hat, it’s now 49-47 Davis. Prentiss is 85% for Childers with 67% of county precincts yet to report.
DeSoto’s the only thing that even put davis over – he ran up 81% there. if the DCCC had spent evenly childers might even have won it.
Clay County has still not reported. If history is any indication, Clay County will deliver for the Democrats. It was one of the few counties in northern Mississippi to vote for Kerry.
That turnout looks to be almost the same as the april 1st primary runoff… Its looks like Mississippians are more interested than one would expect for a congressional runoff seat.
All of the remaining precincts are in pro-Childers counties. Many of them are small, but there might yet be the votes to take the lead (if not 50%)
51Davis – 44Childers
Keep refreshing the Clarion Ledger’s website. They’re updating it quickly.
And still six prentiss precincts to go! We’re going to win this!
following this thread extra-attentively because they’re jonesing for some good news to offset PA results?
That’s all Childers needs to take it without a runoff.
of Prentiss county too.
Childers’ home county. He’s been chancery clerk there for years, and is quite well known. He should win big there. Hold on Hope!
He only needs about 2,000.
the primary race for the general a few weeks ago. They tried to get off the ballot, but the officials said no.
Run off rules got a little screwy.
Here we go….
50% Davis
46% Childers
Clay and Calhoun have no precincts reporting. What do we know about those?
With 31 precincts left, including 6 in Prentiss County
Was 56% black in 2000. Looks good for Childers….
By 338 votes. Three Prentiss precincts left. Can he reach 50%
Childers 46%
Davis 49%
Prentiss is still 2/3rds out, and will give Childers a strong edge.
If it is, then it might be better from this point on.
This is why I love politics… Sports are not my game, baby… But this is just as good… And it takes a lot less work, but sometimes more money (ie donations to candidates)…. This is so close, its awesome. Even if Republicans eventually do win this seat, this is an unbelievable showing for a Democrat in what is considered the very solid Republican South! Way to go Childers!
he’s gotta get up to 50, which means davis would probably go down to 46….
4% in an election of what, 60 thousand votes total? so he’s gotta get a lead of slightly more than 2,000?
well, if calhoun doesn’t go davis, and Clay is as big for him as it could be… plus what’s left of prentiss… he’ll have it.
i’m still wondering how populous clay is
Winston County is my new favorite county… It went 100% for Childers… lol all 4 of them. What do we think? is this all one family? How long did it take them to count their votes? lol As someone that lives in Los Angeles County, this is unbelieveable to me! lol
Is a split county. Most of it is in another district I think.
Are Democratic. Childress will win, but can he reach 50%?
Clay county had 22,000 people; 15,000 in Calhoun county. Plenty of votes left!
columbus dispatch has clay as 63% childers
still wondering how many goddamn people are there — as long as it ain’t wilson country maybe it’ll put him up to 50
That may be a tall order.
put in a little more $$ here. Still, there’s time to bankrupt the NRCC.
Me too!
Childers wins it by 191 votes. All that’s left is the black majority Clay County and three Prentiss precincts.
only need Prentiss… They’d have to deliver about 2000 votes for Childers, 0 for Davis to get us over 50% in the remaining three precincts. It isn’t going to happen.
Prentiss eats through 2/3 of that, assuming the remainder is representative. Narrow wins in the other counties ought to carry him the rest of the way. And if what everyone has been saying about Clay and Calhoun is true, that looks likely.
According to the Columbus newspaper, Childers won Clay by 887 votes.
a betting problem.
with 5/15 in, childers is up by 1,000 votes
logic would stand that with full 15 in, he’d gain 2000 more, which would put his totals over davis’s
how populous is clay? enough to put him over 50%?
I’m reluctant to call Calhoun County. It’s got a lot of old-school Democrat, but they often vote Republican nationally. This one might go for Davis, but not by much if it does.
Lafayette County went for Davis narrowly. Childers needs 3000 votes. Can he find them in the rural counties left? If he loses, there’s still hope for November, when black turnout will likely be higher if Obama is on the ticket.
3 boxes left… all in Prentiss County. Let’s pray we can get to 50%. Not likely, but we can hope.
the remaining prentiss should net him 500… clay netted him slightly less than 1000 according to up top… calhoun wasn’t big enough to make much of a nick… looks like he’ll win by slightly less than 2000
Childers 49; Davis – 47. Three Prentiss precincts remaining. How many votes does he need?
should have spent more money, could have gotten more of an African-American vote. We should have won Grenada.
I think he’s writing the check as we speak. Forcing a run-off in a +10R district is big. Winning that run-off would be HUGE. Easily worth spending $100,000 to $200,000 more.
Ladies and Gentlemen –
This has been an amazing election. I’m so proud of Childers. If you can spare some cash, I know he could use some dough in the coffers. Let’s make sure the soon-to-be Congressman elect has what he needs!
I wouldn’t expect more than 2000 total votes from both of them.
Read my posts about Clay and Calhoun a few lines up.
over 1000 votes more for us than Davis.
47% Childers
49% Davis
same split.
Grr.
I’m watching this as much as the presidential race now.
Anyone else notice these results for the Aberdeen Ward 2 (on the Daily Journal website, just below the MS-01 race)?
That’s quite a race!
from clay
(not yet reflected in totals)
damn, if i didn’t steal my wireless from the unsuspecting soul food joint across the street, i could keep up with this a lot better…
As I figured, Calhoun went very slightly for Davis.
I have family down in Calhoun County. They’re hard to read sometimes. They have Democrats representing them in the state legislature, but they still vote Republican in national elections. We’ll see how Travis’s good-ole-boy politics played down there. For now, I’d say it’s good that we have Davis under 50%.
he needs to overcome Davis, don’t know if either will break 50% though.
All of Desoto County is in; Davis got 81% there. Childers still has all of Prentiss County (his home county) and Lafayette (Oxford – a liberal stronghold). No precincts have come in there yet This thing is not over yet.
Looks like it might be pretty low everywhere, though.
and they voted for Davis. Not a good indicator.
…
The DCCC must be wishing they had dropped another 100,000k in it.
400 votes and we would have had a HUGE win.
500 votes.
Damnit.
We have a real chance of winning the runoff though.
would’ve put him over the top?
DAMMIT!
Well, we can still win this thing on 5/13…let’s run with it!
He only net about 190 votes there.
Have they been counted yet? Is there a chance they will help Childers get the 50% outright and avoid a run-off?
Little doubt Childress would have won 1 on 1. He’ll have a better than 2,000 vote margin when all is said and done. Hope he can carry it through on the 13th, but if the two losing Dem & Rep candidates had been taken off the ballot, as they both requested, it probably would have been just enough to get Childress over 50%.
Exciting anyway, but a bit disappointing to come SO close!
Is that what the DCCC wanted? Very possible. They better ****in’ win this one though. Just showed we could.
I think it’s save to say we have a candidate for addition to Red to Blue.
32974 49%
31036 46%
with 1 precinct left. Argg… so close it’s maddening!
that wasn’t counted from a county that was almost entirely done.
My math shows that if the 3 remaining Prentiss precincts still to come, deliver in the 85% rate and population is in line with other precincts. There should be a net of app. 825. Childers needs a net of 750 to reach 50%.
Unless the AP already has these totals this is still attainable!!!!!!!!!1
and assuming each Prentiss box is equal (very unlikely); he should net 691 votes. This might put him over the top. Keep hope alive!
It isn’t likely…
so I’m not hopeful.
I don’t think Childers can get 50% as it stands, but he could come very close. Y’all, I’m freaking the f out right now. This has been the most excitement I’ve seen in my homestate’s politics in a while. I bet good money that Chris Van Hollen is going to cut a check tomorrow morning.
I muted CNN a long time ago! lol
This is maddeningly close. Maybe we can get the Republicans to sink another $400,000 or so in a run-off. I can’t imagine they are looking forward to another leg of this campaign.
Can he ask for one?
in Prentiss.
Democrats (Childers, Holland) – 50.5%
Republicans (Davis, McCullough) – 47.8%
Others (Green and Indy candidates) – 1.7%
Don’t wanna be overly optimistic, but the runoff looks good for us. Holland voters are probably more likely to turnout for Childers than McCullough are for Davis given Holland’s enthusiastic support of Childers. Plus the green voters aren’t likely to go repub
It looks like Childers will fall a few hundred votes short. Damn. Get ready for the run-off
33,547 was the magic number. So very close. My early prediction is 52-48% Childers for the runoff. It’s gonna be interesting. The Republicans are gonna be in full panic mode.
It’s a runoff. Childers fell 400 votes short of winning it outright. The runoff should be interesting. I assume there will be no party designations (as there weren’t in today’s election). I hope the DCCC pumps some money into the district.
If they had done so, the Repubs would have uped the ante too, but probably still would not have won.
Now we take a chance of something going wrong in the ensuing three weeks.
Childers has as good a chance as Davis at least, but three weeks is a long time in politics. This gives the GOP the chance to re-group
Hopefully, the GOP will spend large sums and still lose it.
Can he ask for a recount?
You lose votes and gain votes in a recount. .6% is a lot to make up. It wouldn’t be finished for a week at least. Better to let that dog lie.
Damn! We almost won the seaty while spending only half as much cash. The silver lining: they’ve already spend 400K and now it’s in earnest. the NRCC could end up spending (cue dr. evil) ONE MILLION DOLLARS! on an R10 seat.