Today was the filing deadline for both Georgia and Florida. Each had a short filing week with few surprises. In Georgia, Democrats filed in all 13 seats while Republicans filed in 11 of the state’s 13 districts. The exceptions were the super safe seats currently held by Hank Johnson and John Lewis. Johnson holds the seat formerly held by Cynthia McKinney. Lewis has held his seat for more then 20 years and is a Committee chair. He drew expected opposition and the unexpected opposition of state legislator “Able” Mable Thomas. The “issue”: Barrack Obama.
Three Florida Democrats went through without a Republican opponent in Florida. That was down from six in 2006 and five in 2004. The three who will have no major opponent in November are Corrinne Brown in Florida-7, Kendrick Meek in FL-17 and Debbie “Dubya” Wasserman Schulz in FL-20.
The four other districts gerrymandered as safe Democratic produced seemingly weak challengers for Allen Boyd in FL-2, Kathy Castor in FL-11, Robert Wexler in FL-19, and Alcee Hastings in FL-23 as well as stronger challengers for Tim Mahoney and Ron Klein. In a disappointing result, C.W. Bill Young filed for re-election although he lookes to get more than the token opposition that has sometimes come his way.
I think Georgia Politics Unfiltered had a story about Thomas considering a race a few weeks ago.
And when she entered, the great headline from GPU was ‘Able Mable Thomas to John Lewis: “I’m coming to get you”‘
Markel Hutchins entered first on a more pro-Obama change platform. Thomas seems to be hitting more on Lewis for not doing enough. Expect Hutchins and Thomas to argue on who is “changier” as Lewis wins 60%+
Lewis says “I am change.” His best bet is to try to sell his record and his position to effect change and to do something for the district. I think he’s in troubler but I’m 800 miles away so …
(Thomas says Lewis “missed the movement.”)
to be a safe Dem district. His district was actually made more republican in 2002 redistricting to make him more vulnerable. The district has a R+2 PVI lean. Still Boyd is for the most part safe for the forseeable future. He’s a blue dog and fits the district well.
FYI the 2002 redistricting was done to in theory create the following:
Six Safe D districts – FL-03, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23
One Marginal D District – FL-02
Five Safe R Districts – FL-01, FL-04, FL-06, FL-07, FL-14
Ten Marginal R Districts – FL-05, FL-08, FL-09, FL-10, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25
The goal for Republicans in 2002 was to max out the number of Republican held seats at the risk of losing out big should Dems ever have a big year. They wanted a 19-6 or 18-7 seat advantage. However thanks to Boyd holding, the FL-16 Foley fiasco and Shaw’s defeat in FL-22 they only have a 16-9 advantage. With so many merginal republican seats (R+4 PVI or less) their whole map can fall apart just as Pennsylvania’s republican map collapsed in 2006.