With filing deadline for congressional candidates in Florida passing last night, let’s check in with a few key races:
- FL-10: Crumb-bum Bill Young qualified for another term in this tossup district. Three Democrats have filed: Ron Paul aficionado Samm Simpson, ’06 Reform Party gubernatorial candidate Max Linn, and Dunedin Mayor (and former Republican) Bob Hackworth. Linn, who won 2% statewide in 2006, has given or lent his campaign over $150K so far. It’s an odd field, to be sure. I still wouldn’t put it past Young to make a surprise retirement announcement now that the filing deadline has passed.
- FL-13: Surprise, surprise. Everyone’s favorite purity troll,
two-timethree-time congressional loser and ex-Democrat Jan Schneider is back — this time as an independent. With Democrat Christine Jennings locked in a tight battle with frosh Rep. Vern Buchanan, Schneider’s ballot antics have just made this race even tougher. It’s clear that Schneider has effectively joined the “Stay in Iraq Forever Party” now. - FL-14: Republican state Sen. Burt Saunders has filed to run against incumbent Rep. Connie Mack in this R+10.5 district as an independent. Despite some vote-splitting by Mack and Saunders, this is still going to be a very uphill climb for Democrat Larry Byrnes.
- FL-15: Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Weldon announced his retirement in this R+4.1 district back in January, and Democrats moved immediately to set up a competitive open seat challenge here. But after Nancy Higgs, a former Brevard Co. commissioner, abruptly exited the race, things looked startlingly quiet here. However, just before the deadline passed, Paul Rancatore, a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force reserves, re-entered the race. Rancatore was recruited to run against Weldon last summer, but dropped out of the race in October, citing his mother’s health as his overriding concern. Rancatore will face off with physician Stephen Blythe for the Democratic nomination.
Four Republican candidates have filed to run, but the party establishment appears to have closed ranks around state Sen. Bill Posey, who is currently sitting on more than $200K cash-on-hand.
FL-10 is a non-starter unless Young retires. At best Hackworth or Linn can do better than past elections and make it a 57-43 loss.
FL-13 is going to be rough with Schneider as an indy. I just cannot see this race looking any better for us than 2006.
FL-14 is another non-starter. Mack has this seat for life sorry to say. It’s extremely solid republican turf.
FL-15 is a longshot. Posey is very well known and our only good shot at beating him was Nancy Higgs. It shouldn’t be a blowout, but I’d be surprised if we came much closer than 55-45%.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that we have great challengers for the marginally republican leaning Central FL (FL-08, 24) and South FL seats (FL-18, 21, 25). I’d be shocked if we didn’t at least win one of these seats, probably 2. My own district FL-24 is going to be a bloodbath between Feeney and Kosmas.
Used to live in Clearwater in the late 70s through the mid 80s and Bill Young was my congressman. He’ still there. I think it will take dynamite or death to remove him from office as he’s rooted in. Once he’s gone we should take the seat but it’s not a gimme.
Hackworth had a 100 people at his announcement which sounds like a good total. Who knows. You are right about 14. My brother lives there with his wife. Die hard Republicans but he’s less die hard (voted for Giuliani and might even vote for Hillary this time but not Obama). Country club Republicans down there. Either rich or wannabes (a lot of wannabes). If you seem “human” the women check out clerks at the grocery store will mutter about how stuck up the people in Naples are.
along with a check to Barack Obama. Just for the sake of clarity.
Max Linn’s whole nonsense with Crist and Crist’s orientation is one big reason to be skeptical of being too enthusiastic about him.
Robert Neeld is the Democrat, Larry Byrnes couldn’t make the ballot and is a write-in.
“Three Democrats have filed: Ron Paul aficionado Samm Simpson, ’06 Reform Party gubernatorial candidate Max Linn, and Dunedin Mayor (and former Republican) Bob Hackworth.”
That’s like a riddle: How can you have three Democrats and none at the same time?