| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don Cazayoux | (D) | 49,702 | 49.20% |
| Woody Jenkins | (R) | 46,741 | 46.27% |
| Ashley Casey | (I) | 3,718 | 3.68% |
RESULTS: LA SoS | Baton Rouge Advocate | NOLA.com
11:19PM: The last three precincts are in. The final result is Cazayoux 49.20%, Jenkins 46.27%. What a ride!
10:55PM (David): Wow. What a rollercoaster. The lesson here, obviously, is that if you don’t know exactly which precincts have reported, projecting things out in a tight race is a very inexact game. Jeffmd seemed to have a good read on those remaining EBR precincts, but ultimately, what matters most is that Don Cazayoux pulled off an extremely impressive win here. Nice work indeed!
10:50PM: CAZAYOUX WINS!!
10:48PM: CAZAYOUX TAKES THE LEAD!
10:47PM: I guess the Louisiana SoS has gone for a smoke break. Hang in there.
10:31PM: The final Livingston precinct is now in. It’s nothing but EBR from now on in. Hang on…
10:27PM: Damn, Jenkins has pulled ahead in EBR again.
10:24PM (David): The envelope is looking better. Please don’t get too excited, but if all of the outstanding precincts perform the same way those already counted have (on a parish-by-parish basis), then Cazayoux would come away with a very narrow win. Given how drastically EBR has shifted tonight, I wouldn’t bank on anything, though.
10:22PM: EBR is continuing to come in for Cazayoux. Come on, Han old buddy. Don’t let me down!
10:15PM: Cazayoux is pulling ahead in EBR now… it’s looking much closer.
10:06PM (David): My back-of-the-envelope spreadsheet suggests that Cazayoux would have to run 17 points ahead of where he’s been all night in the outstanding vote to be able to come back for the narrowest of wins. Not good.
10:01PM: This is not looking great — Cazayoux is getting smacked in East Baton Rouge so far.
9:52PM: Keep in mind that with 16 of 21 precincts reporting in West Baton Rouge, Cazayoux is up big — 1771 to 741.
9:49PM: Woody is starting this with a big lead (55%-41%) based in part on the strong returns from the very Republican Livingston Parish. We have a ways to go yet.
9:37PM: As expected, Livingston is coming in strongly for Jenkins. Feliciana looks tight.
9:18PM Eastern: The first results are trickling in — likely absentees. 51% Woody, 46% Cazayoux.
Polls are now closed in Louisiana. We’ll be tracking the results as them come in above.
507 53.99% “Don” Cazayoux –
414 44.09% Louis “Woody” Jenkins –
4 .43% Peter J. Aranyosi –
8 .85% Ashley Casey –
6 .64% Randall T. Hayes –
Jenkins got 168 to 89 for Cazayoux there for absentees. On election night it was 786 GOP to 1501 Dem. I sure hope it’s not the Jackson voters staying home/not voting.
I don’t draw conclusions from one precinct, but half of East Feliciana is in, and Jenkins has a lead of around 51-47 here.
In a place where Dems accounted for 65% of the votes in April, I am VERY concerned.
Are we supposed to pull stronger towards the end of the night?
Looks like GOP turnout is up across the district. It’s all going to come down to baton rouge.
Let Jenkin’s strongest areas come in now, and then we can just have the Democratic strongholds come in and take-over. Livingston is of course strong for Jenkins, and that’s the majority of the vote right now.
anyone have the best and fastest updating site covering the election, not that SSP isn’t amazing and all. lol but maybe a SOS page? lol
So far about 1771 to 741 with Cazayoux winning. If can duplicate that in East Baton Rouge, he should be fine.
9,251 45.77% “Don” Cazayoux –
10,240 50.67% Louis “Woody” Jenkins –
97 .48% Peter J. Aranyosi –
533 2.64% Ashley Casey –
90 .45% Randall T. Hayes –
He’s only 5% back at this point…here he comes!
Like Daily Kingfish has said, early voting and Woody’s strongest areas are what is in so far and he’s barely ahead. Cazayoux is in good shape, though it appears he’ll win by less than I though. I’d say a 4-7% win is more likely at this point.
did anyone ever say if this is a straight win, even if no one gets a plurality? Or does this go to a run off AGAIN, like in Mississippi?
Hopefully those are Republican strongholds reporting. If Cazayoux can’t close that gap, this is probably over.
The Dem numbers look to be tracking roughly the same as the April turnout, whereas the GOP has doubled their numbers. If East Baton Rogue doesn’t start turning around soon we’re gonna get blown out.
Please don’t tell me Obama/Pelosi attacks are working
If it’s Jackson supporters saying home, I’ll be pissed.
I thought Cazayoux was supposed to gain big in E. Baton Rouge. Right now he’s getting crushed there.
Let James and I, over at Daily Kingfish deal with getting the results … the server just crashed!
Now just 1,500 down in East Baton Rouge.
Can we make up a 5,000 vote margin?
Most of Cazayoux’s best precinct has already come in. Jenkins was expected to win Livington, but by this much?
I’m a little worried, but Cazayoux can win this if he does well in Baton Rouge.
of the remaining precincts outside of E. Baton Rouge left to count are in Cazayoux areas. Still, unless most of the East Baton Rouge precincts outstanding are African-American we ain’t winning this thing.
April 5th Primary
Democrats 1501
Republicans 786
Tonight
Cazayouz 1581
Jenkins 1599
Is this really over? This is going to string quite a bit if that’s the case, given the money put in. And this was supposed to be the easier one compared to MS-01.
Maybe Red really does mean Red, and we need to more carefully pick our R+ districts, and not go this far out on a limb to do so.
Having said that, I want to see the rest of the districts come in.
looks like its pretty much over… unless a huge chunk of the votes left in E BR are voting dem… not giving up, just being realistic. Oh well, onto mississippi…
48.88% Jenkins
46.44% Cazayoux
Woody’s margin was cut from 3,800 to 1,500! Looks like the African-American precincts are kicking in.
28,350 46.44% “Don” Cazayoux –
29,841 48.88% Louis “Woody” Jenkins –
290 .48% Peter J. Aranyosi –
2,323 3.81% Ashley Casey –
244 .40% Randall T. Hayes –
Only a 1,500 vote lead for Jenkins right now with only 307 of 512 precincts reporting.
GOP increasing their turnout everywhere. Livingston has killed us.
my linear projection has Cazayoux by 59 votes. He’d have to maintain his 48.7%-45.7% lead there though.
Based on the primary runoff results. All we need is 1000 from EBR. We’ve won this.
Lots of African Americans though and it looks like they stayed home.
So far, Woody’s strongest parishes are coming in – Livingston and Ascension. When Baton Rouge starts coming in, expect Don to SURGE.
Fingers crossed.
With Jenkins so far ahead, I have been nervous. But with 279 precincts counted, both candidates are below 50% and it has gotten much tighter. Well over 4% is going to other candidates, so it is starting to look like a run-off.
I said when Jackson adn cazayoux were locked in a tight primary that if Cazayoux wins, Jackson supporters are going to stay home, I called it.
DAMMIT
all African American districts remaining. Cazayoux can definitely win. He’s basically won or tied everything except Ascension and Livinston.
Outside of E. Baton Rouge. 10 of the 12 precincts left outside of E. Baton are in Cazayoux areas.
If I remember 1996 correctly, wasn’t he really far ahead of Landrieu most of the night only to have her take the lead at the very end when New Orleans reported…even while many thought there weren’t enough votes in New Orleans to help her?
on both sides looks BIG(just sayin)
We really need to figure out how the hell the GOP managed to get their vote out. Was it the candidate? Is there anti-Obama, anti-Pelosi sentiment here? What is it?
48.40% Jenkins
46.95% Cazayoux
I’m not really from the area, so I can’t give anything beyond the out-of-my-ass guesses, and even there I’ve got nothing.
On the bright side, the margin just dropped to a couple % points… don’t give up! We can still win this!
Ascension, 26 of 26
East Baton Rouge, 121 of 314
East Feliciana, 23 of 23
Iberville, 23 of 23
Livingston, 62 of 63
Pointe Coupee, 12 of 12
St. Helena, 13 of 13
West Baton Rouge, 21 of 21
West Feliciana, 17 of 17
Jenkins best districts are in or almost all in: Ascension (all in) and Livingston (1 remaining). Only Parishes remaining are EBR (193) and Livingston (1).
It’s UNDER 1000 votes!
Probably boosted GOP turnout when they realized they could lose a seat. Plus all the rediculous ads they ran attacking Cazayoux as a liberal.
Well it’s still going to be close, anything can happen in these last East Baton Rouge precincts.
And it’s a Jenkins precinct in Livingstone.
FWIW.
That should give us a reasonable projection of how the night will go.
Looks like absentee votes. Democrats tend to do a bit poorly at absentee (if I remember Foster and Childers were behind on them), so it’s looking ok so far.
… exclude Baton Rouge. Since Jenkins is only up by 5%, Cazayoux should win absentees.
I’ve read that there is no run-off if this doesn’t go a 50.00000000000001% winner. I can’t fine the link, but I’ll try to locate it. I’ve seen no where a date set for any type of run-off, like we did in MS-01 on 4/22 when the 5/13 date was well known.
Its a good thing that my hair is already falling out… Or elections like this would have been enough to push me over the edge. lol
on both sides? I mean there was only what, 5 million bucks dropped into this district?
Anyone know if the remaining precinsts favor Cazayoux?
These have reported so far. Has the university reported yet?
http://electionresults.sos.lou…
49.23% Jenkins
46.11% Cazayoux
Exclusively EBR precincts remain
This is crazyness! I have been assuming all this time Jenkins would lose, but there is a small chance he might win! That would be a nice upset, and hopefully expose that yes, maybe these anti-Obama ads can work.
The news from EBR isn’t so bad.
In 2007, there was a close race for Forestry/Ag Commissioner where the Democrat, Bob Odom, lost EBR 49.75% to 50.25%.
The precincts currently reporting, Odom lost by 18%. The fact that Cazayoux is only down a few percent given these precincts isn’t so bad.
Translation: the precincts reporting so far are Republican-leaning compared to East Baton Rouge Parish as a whole. Cazayoux should improve his margin.
i expected getting home at 10:30 we’d already be swearing cazayoux in… i hope east baton rouge hasn’t been taking its meds and we get a manic blue swing…
Imean for the love…polls have been closed for almost two hours now! This isn’t the Presidency we’re voting on here, count the ballots and post the results!
Cazayoux 48.94%
Jenkins 46,31%
http://dailykingfish.com/
That had to be Southern University that just came in.
Who needs drugs when you have elections?
You can experience the highest of highs when a candidate wins and the lowest of lows when a candidate loses.
Absentees must’ve come in from EBR?
U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
404 of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
38,588 48.94% “Don” Cazayoux –
36,514 46.31% Louis “Woody” Jenkins –
362 .46% Peter J. Aranyosi –
3,066 3.89% Ashley Casey –
312 .40% Randall T. Hayes –
Need I say more?
this is getting crazy
Slow computer loading time I guess, lol
U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
508 of 512 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
49,312 49.24% “Don” Cazayoux –
46,282 46.22% Louis “Woody” Jenkins –
443 .44% Peter J. Aranyosi –
3,705 3.70% Ashley Casey –
397 .40% Randall T. Hayes –
We can overturn a 2000 vote margin. We can still win this. Don’t s*** bricks yet anyone.
We got the Jackson voters. Look at the post below and compare to the votes we’re getting now. Cazayoux is getting the total Dem vote, plus a bit more. Jenkins is getting double the GOP total vote compared to April. The GOP conjured up a shitload of voters from somewhere, and they’re running away with this.
EOM
It’s the fastest one.
Louisiana ended run-offs for general elections. It’s win or lose.
Good to learn something on a Saturday.
With 439 precincts in, Jenkins is back up by under 1,000.
All but four precincts counted and he is up by 3,000!!
Did you enjoy that Jenkins loss? Looks like anti-Obama ads don’t work!
🙂
So who knows if Woody will stick around for that.
508 in, and DC up by 3,000!!!
Pop those champagne corks ladies and gentlemen. You earned this one.
With 4 precincts outstanding, our boy is up by 3k. Game, set, match.
Yesssss! Woohoo, it looks like a win!!! just 4 precincts left! Yes, baby, come on!
for his loss. Without the exodus of African-Americans following Katrina from the 2nd to 6th district we may not have won tonight.
… for Rudy!
In all seriousness, this is probably good news. The last-counted districts are almost always in urban areas, which are Democratic strongholds. Should be a fun evening.
That was crazy. I’m glad he won, but it was too close for comfort. The final margin is what? 49%-46%? Not bad, but I expected a little better.
I’m glad the Obama/Pelosi ad didn’t work…or if it did, it didn’t work that well.
I’d love to hear someone from the district give a good explanation or analysis of what played out here tonight. I have my politico opinions, but I’m from New York, so.
that was exciting.
treacherous torturous biting? No way. If elections didn’t come down to nailbiters, it wouldn’t be fun. Learn to enjoy the wait.
GREAT JOB ON THE GOTV BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!(LOOK AT THE TURNOUTS)
Everyone knows how psychologically important it is to win in bright red districts. But now, in addition, if we can pull out MS-01 on the 13th we’ll drop the Republicans below the 200 seat mark in the House, something that never happened to the Democrats during the 12 years of exile. Somehow a party really feels like a minority party when that first digit is a 1!
Go Childers!
Where?
Its faster and cheaper just to get someone to kick you in the stomach. lol
thanks for telling us EARLY to be patient……….
Louisiana Secretary of State
Unofficial Election Results Inquiry
Results for Election Date: 5/03/08
05/03/2008 21.50.23
From the Sec of State site
05/03/2008 21.50.23
U. S. Representative, 1st Congressional District
480 of 505 precincts reporting
9,750 22.16% Gilda Reed –
33,222 75.49% “Steve” Scalise –
767 1.74% R. A. “Skip” Galan –
267 .61% Anthony “Tony G” Gentile –
U. S. Representative, 6th Congressional District
508 of 512 precincts reporting
49,312 49.24% “Don” Cazayoux –
46,282 46.22% Louis “Woody” Jenkins –
443 .44% Peter J. Aranyosi –
3,705 3.70% Ashley Casey –
397 .40% Randall T. Hayes –
With under 50% we don’t have to worry about a runoff, do we?
Thanks to anyone who knows the rule!
I can’t remember the last time I saw the lead change hands so frequently.
If they are heavily African-American we have a good chance. If not it’s over.
another Tom Cole Deathwatch thread! 😀
What are the match-ups in November? Is Woody on the ballot again or do Republicans get a new primary?
Was hoping someone had access to that kind of data to do a comparison.
check out redstate:
http://redstate.com/blogs/vlad…
Ummm… the rethug tears of misery are so sweet.
but; when it’s all said and done, there will be OVER 100,000 votes cast in this SPECIAL election; anyone know if that’s a record for a special?
The good news: Louisiana’s congressional delegation is now just 4-3 republican. Going into 2004 is was 6-1 republican.
The better news: We have an 5-star recruit running in the open LA-04 district this November, which could give us a 4-3 delegation edge come November.
Cazayoux has a 3% win (not the 9% in the last survey), and a little over 2900 votes. Hopefully incumbent status gives him a boost come November when the turn-out will favor the GOP more with the presidency and Senate on the line.
But for now, CHEERS to Cazayoux – welcome to Congress! That makes it 235-199 with 1 vacanies (given LA-01 victory for the GOP). As pointed out in a previous post, winning MS-01 would make it 236-199! Mon excellent!!!
Just out of curiosity, what kind of Independent is Ashley Casey? I see Casey listed as an (I-R), so I’m guessing somewhat of a Republican, but what kind? The type who would appeal to Democrats in a purely D-R election? Or is Casey even more conservative than your average Republican?
1st Baker had to quit early to force his party to defend this seat
2nd Republicans chose and settled with the flawed and polarizing Woody Jenkins
and lastly Bobby Jindal had to stick his nose into leadership races in the legislature, kicking Cazayoux into the race that he just WON!
I was so freaking worried about this but we pulled it out.
Hooray!
And MS-01 is 4 points more Republican so we’re going to need to put more effort in it to win.
Let’s do this!
Judging by how the votes came in I have a feeling that Jenkins did better with whites than expected and Cazayoux pulled in a massive % of the black vote. The last 100 or so East Baton Rouge precincts counted caused MASSIVE swings towards Cazayoux, probably meaning the black vote came up huge for him.
Here is a link to the ballot for the MS-01 run-off. Looks like good news for us. Apparently they do not put party affiliation (probably a plus in this district) on the ballot and Childers has the top spot of the ballot (another plus).
http://www.sos.state.ms.us/ele…
for the GOP primary in september? i think this close race may actually be good for us because it will encourage jenkins to run again in the fall. he can say that with a republican presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, he’ll be in good shape and he’ll still be hard to beat in a primary.
the talk about jackson running as an “independent” seems crazy. he wasn’t able to raise enough money to be competitive in a democratic primary, how could he raise enough to be competitive in a general?
cazayoux’s big advantages for november are these:
1) he’s a great fundraiser and will be way ahead of jenkins or any republican by the end of the republican primary – and being the incumbent won’t hurt at all.
2) NRCC will not invest much in this race as it will be focused on defense across the country
3) he’s congressman cazayoux and incumbency has all kinds of benefits
4) obama will be on top of the ticket and the D next to his name will be the same as the D next to cazayoux.