Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/5-7, likely voters, 9/24-26/07 in parens):
Rick Noriega (D): 44 (35)
John Cornyn (R-inc): 48 (51)
(MoE: ±4%)
This confirms another recent poll by Rasmussen, which showed Cornyn leading Noriega by a 47-43 margin.
If these polls don’t help Noriega start raising some real money, I don’t know what will.
partially, these polls can only help but, what i think will really help is the national primary campaign being settled(i expect the senate fundraising in competitive races to get a huge boost at that time)
…that many of us have been making for a long time – that Cornyn is very unpopular and is ripe for the taking. If Noriega can get his message across he can win this.
The only real reason I’d be hesitant to get too involved here is that it is going to be SOOOOOOOOOOO expensive to even have a minimal amount of TV. That said, I’ve felt for a long time Dems have been too quick to write off Texas. The changing demographics of the state, and the way the Republicans have thrown Latinos under the bus over the immigration issue, plus a sizable black population make the demographics possible (very difficult, but not impossible, and moving in our direction). It seems like Noriega might be the candidate to move us in the right direction.
When I finally start working this summer and stop being a broke college student, $15 is getting sent his way.
I just really worry that we wont win it due to money. But imagine winning a Senate seat in Texas, that would be the highlight of my Nov 4th. If Obama works Texas (which he should anyway, he is competitive there) then maybe Obama could bring him over the top.
But if he can post 1-2 million in Q2 and then start getting a million a month or so this could be a close race.
What I hope is that Noriega gets a slot as the keynote speaker of the Democratic Convention. That would get him millions of dollars instantly and boost his national profile. The campaign cash would roll in and this would be a real race. Cornyn is going to be able to raise 20-30 million for this race but if Rick can raise 10-15 he has a real shot at this seat.