| Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO (Open) NM (Open) |
AK (Stevens) LA (Landrieu) NH (Sununu) NC (Dole) OR (Smith) |
MN (Coleman) |
GA (Chambliss) KY (McConnell) MS (Wicker) |
ME (Collins) |
Safe D:
VA (Open)
Races to Watch:
NE (Open)
NJ (Lautenberg)
OK (Inhofe)
SC (Graham)
TX (Cornyn)
Last Updated: November 3, 2008 at 2:00 AM
I didn’t realize there was a link on the right-hand column to Senate and House races! I love the insight everyone gives on this type of post. I have to say, this is probably the most conservative (no pun intended) race ratings I’ve seen, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. My comments on a few of them:
SAFE DEM:
Virginia – This seat is as safe as some incumbent Democrats. I think everyone is terrified of putting an open seat in a safe column, but it’s a fact at this point.
LIKELY DEM:
New Mexico – As it has to be differentiated between Virginia (safe) and New Hampshire (Lean).
Louisiana – I haven’t seen any recent polling or the financial situation of Kennedy to show me any different
LEAN D:
New Hampshire – Shaheen has consistently polled high single or low double digits against Sununu. He’s donezo.
TOSS-UP:
Colorado – Advantage to Mark Udall given the environment, recent trending to Democrats in the state, the Democratic National Convention, money, and Schaffer as a candidate.
Alaska – Advantage to Mayor Begich given scandel on Stevens, polling showing incumbent under 50%, and genearl mood of Alaska against the Stevens/Young ordeal.
Minnesota – Pretty even to slight GOP lean given the national environment, fundraising, GOP national convention, and polling showing Coleman inches ahead.
LEAN GOP:
Oregon – Smith has money and is an incumbent, but we are voting for President in a blue state, the Democratic Primary is getting Merkley/Novick good face time, and recent polling has this within 5 points. Hold the phone!
North Carolina – Hagan is kicking some major polysci, trouncing in the primary, fundraising, and up against an incumbent (no gender advantage for Dole now) who polls under 50%, and a recent Rasmussen poll has Hagan up 1%!
LIKELY GOP:
Maine – Collins isn’t budging; I had high hopes for Allen, so I hope what all the Maine people say (race doesn’t take shape until after Memorial Day) holds true and this gets into the Lean column sooner (rather than later).
Texas – I’d move this out of races to watch to Likely GOP given the confirmed recent polls that has this competitive, Cornyn under 50%, and Noriega polling well.
Mississippi(B) – There was early polling showing this could be interesting (more so if it was held in March as the Mississippi Constitution states IMO), but it’s Mississippi, presidential election, and Cochran on the ballot right next to this race.
I agree with the remaining “Races to Watch” listed for: Oklahoma, Nebraska, & Kansas. I’d also add Idaho, but I’d remove Kentucky and New Jersey (unless you are just looking from a primary perspective, no way in general).
The US Senate is an terribly important institution to hold the power of, with the “advise and consent” on executive nominations, especially the SCOTUS. We need to work and play real hard to win as many as possible. I am predicting a pick-up of 5 seats, but am hopeful for as many as 7-8.