MS-01: County Baselines

Polls close in Mississippi at 8pm Eastern. We’ll be tracking and liveblogging the returns as they come in, but in order to really know what the numbers mean, we’ll have to pull up the county-by-county results of the April 22nd special primary, filtering out the also-rans so we get a pure Childers vs. Davis head-to-head:























































































































































































County Childers % Davis %
Alcorn 1808 63 1023 35
Benton 504 67 227 30
Calhoun 692 54 501 39
Chickasaw 1141 67 465 27
Choctaw 300 47 291 47
Clay 1609 65 722 29
DeSoto 2064 17 10148 81
Grenada 553 40 752 54
Itawamba 1155 59 701 36
Lafayette 1149 44 1342 51
Lee 4899 58 3143 37
Lowndes 1855 44 2252 53
Marshall 1633 62 950 36
Monroe 2374 62 1206 32
Panola 1057 43 1058 43
Pontotoc 1337 51 1117 43
Prentiss 4136 85 653 13
Tate 632 31 1313 65
Tippah 1131 60 704 37
Tishomingo 1135 61 663 35
Union 1191 56 846 39
Webster 286 35 475 58
Winston 4 100 0 0
Yalobusha 493 46 514 48
Total 33,138 49 31,066 46

Steve Holland (D) and Glenn McCullough (R), previously defeated in the April 1st primary runoff, won 1.17% and 1.44% of the vote, respectively.

Davis won 8 of the district’s 24 counties in the first round, but the biggest chunk of his votes came from the Memphis suburbs in DeSoto County, which contains his home base of South Memphis Southaven. Because of its sheer voting power, DeSoto has the potential of being a game-ender for Childers if Davis can keep the numbers close throughout the rest of the district.

Childers will need to do his best to run up the score in Prentiss (his home county), neighboring Alcorn, and key spots like Chickasaw (41% black), Clay (56% black), Marshall (50% black), and other friendly areas in Northeast Mississippi. We’ll also see if Childers and the DCCC have been able to turnout crucial votes in counties like that Davis won like Panola (48% black), Grenada (41% black), and Yalobusha (39% black). More ballots were cast for Democrats than for Republicans in these counties in the April 1st primary runoff, but some of those votes didn’t turn out for Childers in the first round of the special election.

A key bellwether here will be Lee County, where Tupelo is located. It’s a county that normally tilts Republican in statewide and federal races, but Davis’ savage attacks in the GOP primary against Tupelo’s former mayor, Glenn McCullough, didn’t do much to inspire enthusiasm for his bid here: Childers won the county by 58%-37% on April 22nd. But if Davis closes the gap here, Childers may have a hard time coming out on top.

For good measure, I’m adding the county-by-county numbers for the primary run-off below the fold.











































































































































































































































County Childers Holland Total Dem Davis McCullough Total GOP
Alcorn 1454 290 1744 349 554 903
Benton 384 95 479 82 42 124
Calhoun 500 471 971 201 305 506
Chickasaw 575 1066 1641 148 374 522
Choctaw 356 138 494 96 311 407
Clay 1012 599 1611 138 635 773
DeSoto 1056 388 1444 8281 1947 10228
Grenada 390 282 672 285 364 649
Itawamba 536 1123 1659 268 548 816
Lafayette 530 776 1306 454 695 1149
Lee 1266 4822 6088 1251 3566 4817
Lowndes 1056 468 1524 1022 1731 2753
Marshall 1118 348 1466 478 258 736
Monroe 1443 1644 3087 436 937 1373
Panola 1017 233 1250 548 227 775
Pontotoc 584 1028 1612 459 954 1413
Prentiss 3543 335 3878 198 377 575
Tate 646 100 746 812 242 1054
Tippah 889 245 1134 262 439 701
Tishomingo 926 392 1318 189 389 578
Union 796 637 1433 361 758 1119
Webster 274 174 448 219 321 540
Winston 3 1 4 2 1 3
Yalobusha 443 303 746 194 221 415
Total 20,797 15,958 36,755 16,733 16,196 32,929

13 thoughts on “MS-01: County Baselines”

  1. ….is virtually everybody else going Childers but a huge De Soto County vote for Davis still swamping him.  But after the last couple special elections, I’ll be optimistic and predict Childers by 1.

  2. I’ve been seeing a lot of quotes like these.

    But the influx of advertising has hardly dented Childers’ standing, according to polling from both parties, and the race remains neck-and-neck.

  3. despite all logic to the contrary, Panola County gave Wally Pang around 10% of the vote. (Well, Pang is from that county, but still)

  4. And the NRCC is crying foul.

    As voters head to the polls in a crucial special House election in Mississippi today, a last-minute mailer from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has Republicans crying foul in a race that was already very nasty.

    The DCCC mailer, which Republicans say targeted black voters in the district, accuses Republican nominee Greg Davis of wanting to honor Confederate Gen. Nathan Bedford Forrest, who is considered to be the the founder of the Ku Klux Klan, with a statue in Southaven, the suburban community where he serves as mayor.

    The mailer calls the incident “a moral outrage” and says: “Now Greg Davis wants to go to Congress. It’s up to us to stop him.”

    Davis spokesman Ted Prill called the mailer “11th-hour gutter politics” and said Davis never supported bringing a statue of Forrest to Southaven.

    2. It seems it would suit both parties to say Childers is winning in the polls by several points.

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