Polls close in Mississippi tonight at 8pm Eastern. We’ll be liveblogging the returns as they come in, but until then, feel free to post your predictions in the comments. You may find the county baselines that we posted earlier to be helpful.
There’s another election tonight, as well — the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate nomination in Nebraska, where Scott Kleeb and Tony Raimondo will face off. Polls close at 9pm Eastern in Nebraska. Feel free to post your predictions for that race in the comments, too.
There’s still time to help GOTV for Childers with the DCCC’s virtual phonebanking center.
51-49 for soon to be Rep. Travis Childers.
How about that 🙂
Childers – 53%
Davis – 47%
Kinda optimestic, but 53% is the number in my mind.
No idea about Nebraska, but I would have thought Kleeb would win going away.
Childers – 51.3%
Davis —– 48.7%
Kleeb ——- 51.7%
Raimundo – 48.3%
My Nebraska prediction is completely out of the blue. Raimundo spent much more (although it is his own money) So I get the feeling he is “coming from behind” so to speak. I’m guessing he spent more money so he could have a bigger ad buy to try and get past Kleeb, but I’m not entirely sure. I don’t know if it would be enough to throw him over the top though.
Childers – 52.6
Davis – 47.4
Have no clue on what the NE numbers will be but I’m sure Kleeb will win by a sizable margin.
Hillary 65-35 (I post this here since I’m tired of the candidate wars elsewhere)
Childers: 50.7%
Davis: 49.3%
i am gong to leave the predictions to you out-of-state boys. I am too nervous to make any predictions other than I predict I will have many drinks tonight.
I have a feeling some people have fallen for the Obama-Childers liberal tactics, but we shall see…
Childers 54%
Davis 46%
MS-01: Childers 52% Davis 48%, assuming that Lee and Prentiss come in with turnout as good or better as the rates coming out of DeSoto. If DeSoto votes huge, and those two key Childers counties don’t, Davis could win it by a field goal or so.
NE-SEN: Raimondo 55%, Kleeb 45%. And, oh, how I hope I am wrong about this one. Like Kleeb a lot, and sent $100 his way just yesterday. But I fear that this might be a low-turnout, low-info primary, especially with the presidential drama not present (I know there is a “presidential primary”, but Nebraska cast its REAL lot on the Dem side months ago). In a low-motivation deal, the guy that runs more TV ads tends to win those kind of races.
WV-PRES: Clinton 64, Obama 34, Others 2. And almost nobody will notice, which will piss the Hillary folks off even more.
WV-02: Barth wins it decisively, and sets up a much more competitive race in November than I think a lot of folks expect.
NE-02: Esch 61%, Carter 39%. I know there was some drama over Esch endorsing Raimondo over Kleeb (especially among some folks over at the D-Kos). But he outspent Carter something like 24-to-1. Again, in a lightly attended primary, that is going to count. For a lot.
…and I was number 367 at my particular polling place, which is open for roughly another 4.5 hours. Turnout is definitely higher than the first special at the end of April.
I guess it remains to be seen in whose favor that is. Davis narrowly won this county last time. But I know for a fact the Dems are more energized this time around.
Yeah, there’s beer in the near future.
My sources are telling me that Greg Davis is spending his day in Columbus (Lowndes County), Tupelo (Lee County), and all over DeSoto County. These three counties are the ones he has to pull in if he hopes to win this election.
I have also heard from a very reliable Republican person of influence in the district that the Republican brass do not expect to hang onto this seat. My guess is that Childers will win somewhere between 53-54%.
The voters in the district are sick and tired of all of the ads that have been on tv and radio over the past few weeks. I literally can’t go five minutes without seeing a television ad so I just turn the tv off. Many other voters are so tired of the ads that they refuse to vote today. If these exhausting ads have done anything, they have made Davis out to “look like a punk” according to my Republican father. I hope others feel the same way. I am still hearing that the Republicans that Davis beat in the primary a few weeks ago are still not actively supporting Davis. He ran a very sleazy primary and has burned a lot of bridges.
So, with all this considered, my prediction is that Childers will win with 54%. I am a nervous wreck so I am very ready for the next 4 hours to fly by. Think happy thoughts, folks!!!
A parting shot.
Less than 1% win, say 50.4-49.6, or some such, advantage Good Guys. I’m trying to temper my optimism, but IL and LA have me hopeful…
There is one huge difference from the LA-06 primary that works in our favor. Democrats, including Chidlers’ primary opponents are all on board and working to win this one. On the other hands, there are still sore feelings withing the other camp. One thing that is similar to LA-06 is the lack of energy among the Republicans.
I could find somewhere to read about how things look on the ground at this moment, such as DeSoto turnout. I remember seeing all kinds of updates for CA-50 in 2006.
count him out. Media bought the NC primary and it’s buying the OR primary.
Childers 51.8%
Davis 47.5%
candidates were equally Democrats, and far better known, they were the establishment candidates, the well known, experienced, politicians. Kleeb is that in NE.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08…
turns out it is factually correct after all, and Harris is an even bigger scumbag than previously thought…
That Childers chipped into Davis’ DeSoto support?
MS-01: Childers 51.3/Davis 48.7
NE-Sen: Raimondo 52/Kleeb 48 (Hope like hell this is wrong)
WV-Pres: Clinton 68%
Well, was this true? or is it an all out lie? Seems as though there were better and less polarizing last minute things the DCCC could have done.
Was spent on media. Little staff. No offices.
Kleeb is doing GOTV. Raimondo is not.
Add that to the fact that Kleeb is a Democrat and Raimondo is, well, not, and I have to predict that Kleeb will win this one.
At a minimum it will give GOP something to crow about and use to distract from a Childers win.
Childers will win 50.5 – 49.5. I’m a bit worried though, it seems the Republicans are more optimistic today.
Let’s not offend the white voters, even after the Rev Wright commercial.
I’ve thought hard, but Davis thinly veiled racists ads attacking Childers for “supposed” links to Obama and tryign to drive off conservative Democrats with that, will back fire. Panola and Grenada counties, which he won last time and which are both over forty percent black, go Democrat by large margin with much higher turnout. Childers cuts very slightly into DeSoto, holding Davis under 80% there, takes almost 85% again in Prentiss county, gets a 60-40 slam dunk in Lee, due to the bitterness of Republicans in Tupelo, the swingishness of the area, and his good margin last time. Black turnout is going to be much higher this time, and it will help carry the day. I predict a 500 vote victory, or .5 percent victory, whichever one ends up being closer, I feeling five tonight. It will be close, and I do feel like Davis could very well win it, which would be a big disapointment.
But I know for a fact that Kleeb is running a strong voter contact operation, and he is on the air as well. Kleeb’s campaign is certainly the one operating as if they’ll be alive tomorrow. But we’ll see.
As far as low turnout goes, it’s true that statewide turnout is supposed to be 27% and lower (20%) in Douglas County. But I checked those against the 2004 numbers and surprisingly, these turnout figures are higher than the May primary that year. Only 15% of registered voters turned out in Douglas County in 2004.
That makes me nervous.
And I’ll predict a 53.5-46.5 victory for Kleeb in Nebraska.
That what I came in here to predict. 51% to 49% for the good guys.
…i.e. the Country Club Clan. The D-Trip should’ve gone with that…
I was going nut-so a few weeks ago with the LA-06 race, this one is going to be even worse!
I have to hope that Childers pulls this one out, but I think it’ll be closer than the 3% he won by three weeks ago. He’ll consoliate the Democratic votes from the first election, and just have to hope the GOTV on the Dem side remains as strong as the GOP.
Childers – 50.2% (37,650)
Davis – 49.8% (37,350)
But what do I know? JUST WIN CHILDERS!!!
Desired 110th Congress: DEM-236, GOP 199
Childers was nearly able to pull this off before, now this time the Democratic base all energized up(with many southern Democrats coming back into the fold) I think we’ve got this one.
It all really hangs on what the turnout will be