6 thoughts on “IL-14 R+5…LA-06 R+7…MS-01 R+10…??-?? R+12?”

  2. is vulnerable in November. That’s an R+12 open seat (being vacated by Terry Everett) and probably wouldn’t be in play except Montgomery’s mayor, Bobby Bright, is the Democratic candidate, so he has name rec and fundraising connections.

    (Also, if you want to go deeper than R+12, we still have a good shot at WY-AL, which is R+19, I think.)

  3. This is exactly why Democrats are the party of the people.  Regardless of whether you vote Democrat or Republican for president, at the congressional level, Democrats will be doing increasingly well now that the Republican era is over.  My hypothesis (more of a widely held one) is that who we pick for our presidential nominee never jives that well with conservative Democrats who will instead vote for the Republican, example being Bush and Kerry, Kerry being the Northeastern liberal elite, Bush being the guy you can have a beer with, (even I would rather have a beer or 5 with Bush and not Kerry).  But when you bring it back to the congressional level, more people are Democrats and will vote Democrat, simple as that.  This is why we can win in all of these Republican PVI districts, including the old Dixiecrat South who still identify as Democrats but do not vote that way at the presenidential level.

    You can also scale down further and see that the South is still dominated at a local level by Democrats (Lousiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, West Virginia all have Democratic majorities in both state houses, some by huge numbers).  When it comes down to it, conservative Democrats are by far more willing to split their vote than a Democrat.  Proof being, how many Republicans reside in Democratic PVI districts, 8.  And none of them are that Democratic leaning (except Deleware but that is an exception).  And that number of 8 will probably be more like 5 by the time Nov 4th is over with.  I would say this is because people who vote Democratic at the presidential level are the ones who already agree with all our issues and would only vote Republican in extreme circumstances where they just really dont like the nominee personally, not politically.  This is quite different from conservative Democrats who do not agree on all the issues and will split their vote to stop those gay loving, abortion having libruls from running our country.

    The way people vote and the reasons they do are just so fascinating…  

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