This is it, folks. The one. The final piece of straw set atop the shambling camel of the GOP, the one which clove its dessicated humps in two.
Only it’s more like a ton of bricks crushing the Republican roach.
Let’s take stock of this race to see what I mean:
- This district has a PVI of R+10. It voted for Bush 62-37 in the last election. Only seven Democrats sit in comparably red seats – and not a single Republican sits in a seat as blue as this one is red. And almost every major prognosticator (at least at the start) treated this as a safe seat.
- The GOP had a perfectly serviceable candidate in Greg Davis – a standard wingnut with none of the baggage of Woody Jenkins in LA-06 or Jim Oberweis in IL-14.
- The NRCC spent $1.3 million on this race. Freedom’s Crotch spent at least $400K more – and used illegal tactics to boot. And of course Davis himself raised over a million.
- They sent in Mike Huckabee, Thad Cochran, Trent Lott, Haley Barbour, and Roger Wicker.
- And when that wasn’t enough, Darth Cheney came to town, to stump and raise money.
- The GOP played up Obama/Pelosi/”librul” fear-mongering to the hilt. They were shameless in exploiting whatever racial angle they thought would work.
And yet what happened? Despite all this, Travis Childers just became the newest member of the Democratic Caucus with a resounding 54-46 win. It’s utterly unspinnable. Even Tom Cole knew not to try.
But a sober press release only sees him through until tomorrow morning. Then he has to face the same vast universe of problems he had before him today, except they will loom much larger and much more sharply. Almost every potentially contestable Republican seat is in play now. The “every man for himself” mentality that has taken hold amongst the GOP will become even more firmly entrenched, dooming already-weak NRCC fundraising. In Congress, discipline will likely suffer as vulnerable members (ie, much of the caucus) are tempted to side with the Dems. And we may even see some more retirements. Things are going to get much, much worse before they ever get better for the GOP – if they do at all.
For a lot of reasons, this to me is the sweetest of our three recent special election victories. But to the GOP, seldom has more bitter medicine passed their lips. Glib commentators will say that the Republican brand is tarnished. The fact is, it is the Republican Party which itself is broken.
And this election is what helped break it.
Props to Kyle for his spot on prediction.
Just read this post aloud, spittle spewing and finger wagging, to wild applause from my thoroughly Democratic family members.
This is a truly great night.
If we can win here. We should be able to win anywhere.
If we can play our cards right we could be headed to 10+ more seats in the Senate. 40+ more in the House and a landslide presidential election with more than 300 electoral votes.
Very well said. And we can have a Dem Senator here in November with Musgrove.
When the DCCC unleashes the $40 million they have left on hand for November.
I didn’t have too much faith in my old congressional district in ousting Bachmann, but this has just completely turned every seat into potentially competitive. I guess I’ll be re-registering to vote and getting up at 5am to go vote at home.
This really was the cherry on top of an already awesome day I had. WOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
An R+9 district in Nebraska where Jim Esch just won a resounding primary victory tonight with 81% of the vote. In the primary Esch came up just 2,000 votes shy of Terry despite having an active primary opponent – while Terry had nominal opposition.
With increased AA turnout due to Obama’s presence on the ticket – and the potential for Obama to take an electoral vote from the district – NE-02 should be a key target for Democrats in ’08.
McCain’s global warming speech set off a firestorm on the conservative talkers.
So, the GOP has no money. Even if they had money, their candidate recruitment was lousy (the Nixionian level of flop sweat on Davis is impressive). Gas is about to hit four bucks a gallon. The economy is stalled. War fatigue is a drag. Their base hates their nominee. Their nominee seems to relish pissing off his base. Their grassroots are alienated from their national party apparatus.
It’s as though they have lost their will to live.
Perhaps this is all a clever ploy to lull us into overconfidence.
Posted here.
OK, his overall numbers were off, but check it out. (April numbers here for reference.) Panola did go for Childers, 58%-42%, and Grenada only very narrowly went for Davis by 70 votes, 51%-49%. Childers held Davis to 75% in DeSoto, well under the 80% mark ArkDem was hoping for. He got 85% again in Prentiss. Lee went 58%-42% for Childers, very close to his 60%-40% prediction.
The big changes seemed to be Childers winning Choctaw, Lafayette, Lowndes, and Panola this time around, posting much better gains in places like Tate (31% in April, 43% now) and Yalobusha (46% in April, 59% now), and running up his margin of victory in places like Chickasaw and Clay and Marshall.
First thing I did when I woke up was check the results. Talk about a pick-me-up!
1. When I woke up yesterday morning, the Daily Journal, the leading paper in the area, had side by side articles on the two candidates, with accompanying pictures. On the left side of the page was Travis Childers out campaigning with LOCAL politicians like Rep. Steve Holland of Plantersville and Sen. Hob Bryan of Amory. On the right side was Greg Davis standing at a podium with Dick Cheney. The contrast was striking.
2. Barack Obama’s and the DNC’s 50 State Strategy may come in to play this November. Mississippi probably won’t go Dem, but making them have to fight in every district will certainly be a good thing. And may make the overall popular vote total look even more decisive for Obama.
3. Hopefully the 2 above points will translate into more local MS politicians choosing to run as Dems. There has been a trend around here lately for everyone to switch, or at least consider switching, to the Repubs. But if more good candidates run, more good candidates win, and more Travis Childers’ can be found.
Yes, it’s overstated but if only seats with a Cook PVI of R+10 are considered “safe”:
There are no more than 80 Republican seats with a Cook PVI greater than R+10 using Benawu’s chart: 73 listed plus 7 GOP seats in Georgia with a “?.”
That places 60% of the remaining GOP seats in some kind of danger (119 of 199). Remember the days of the static Congress when no more than 5% of the seats seemed to be in danger?
The current strategy does seem to place as many as 80 seats under some kind of pressure. That’s a lot closer to the “R+10” school than to the all seats are safe interpretation. And it’s working. Yes that special in VA-1 for example did not work but these three did.
Since the House went to its current size following the 1912 elections, neither major party has done as poorly as 80 seats. The all-time low was by the Republicans (or either major party)was following the 1936 elections: 88 seats. Want to feel how bad the R+10 line is. That’s it. Just a little worse than the height of FDR’s popularity for the Republicans.
Of course, Democrats already hold seats with a Cook PVI of greater than R+10 and some of those 80 really are threatened. Think Alaska (R+14) or even Wyoming (R+19). This was an eight point win, after all.
In short, it was a hell of a win for the Democrats and yet another reason why the Tom Cole death watch continues.
All politics is local, and geography played a big part of Childers win. If the Tupelo Mayor had been the GOP nominee, he would have probably won.
Don’t get me wrong, this IS a huge upset, with definite implications for November, but to expect a gain of 80 seats in November is delusional.
You can shake loose seats in a wave election where the incumbent seemed strong and is better funded. However, you can’t beat somebody with nobody. How many total seats have a D candidate with a legitimate chance of winning? By legitimate, I mean someone with proven ability in government or business or politics. Someone that can raise at least 35-50% of the incumbents’ campaign funds (all sources included)?
Many seats are lost on the last day of filing. A through seat-by-seat analysis is in order, now that the calculus has seemingly changed, but I doubt there would be 80 seats that meet the above test.
Winning 30-40 is probably the most optimistic result possible.
Senate races are much more open to national moods and swings. A nine seat or more pickup for the Dems is much more likely than a 31+ pickup in the house, IMO.
If you want a great explanation on the collapse of the GOP read John Dean’s new book, “Broken Government”. He contends that conservatives hate government and see nothing good coming from it except national defense. Because of this attitude they are incapable of making government run effectively. In fact, they try to discredit government by making it run badly. They aren’t interesting in governing anything. All they want to do is rule the country. Thus you get incompetence reacting to Katrina, planning wars, crafting budgets and making the machinery work. Problem is most citizens don’t share their attitude. The GOP has been able to mask this “broken government ” behind the wedge issues of guns gays and abortion since Reagan but no longer.
They will again be out of power for 40 years. It may take that long to fix what these ignorant fucks broke.
Dean’s book is really good- read it.
Now that the votes have been counted, I know Musgrove will use these numbers to help his strategy of pulling in votes in northeast Mississippi.
Anyone who dares underestimates Musgrove is not a wise person.
when Childers will be sworn in so I can TIVO C-Span…I missed Cazayoux’s swearing in and madien speech.