Poll city today. Rasmussen (5/14, likely voters, 4/7 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 47 (45)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
The crosstabs (sub. req’d) show a few interesting numbers: Begich leads among independents by a 53-35 margin. Among Republicans, he’s running stronger (15%) than Stevens is with Democratic voters (9%).
The same round of polling also shows McCain beating Obama in Alaska by 50-41. That’s an awfully far cry from Bush’s 61-36 blowout in 2004.
Exciting times, indeed.
GO ALASKA! haha
Obama seems to be polling unusually well among white voters for a democrat in traditionally republican and swing states such as ND, CO, AK, MT, NE, IA, and the pacific northwest. He seems to do very poorly with whites in the south, WV, KY, PA, and even dem strongholds like MA. Does anyone else think that the cause could be race relations in each state/region? In the first batch of states I mentioned there are very few African-Americans and little history of negative race relations, while the last set of states have had a long history of race problems.
Hillary likes to claim that she appeals more to white voters, but I’m starting to think it has to be taken on a state by state basis. There are just some places where large numbers of whites flat out wouldn’t vote for any black candidate, while others such as the midwest don’t have the same kind of prejudices.
Not trying to blame only whites here either. The same can be said for other races. African-Americans in the south vote just as solidly for one party (Dems), and when given the choice their own race as well.
My biggest fear here is that Stevens will be forced to retire if he is indicted before the primary in August. In that case, someone like Palin could jump in and she would win the race easily. It sucks, but she is that popular there right now. One thing that we should all be happy about is that Uncle Ted will never drop out on his own. He, as well as Don Young, are simply too arrogant and drunk with power to ever retire voluntarily.
I also kind of fear that after Young is ousted in the primary, that may kind of blunt Alaska independents’ anger towards the state incumbents. In other words, they might be willing to oust one of the old-timers, and then be content to let the other one survive. I could be way off, but it is just a little gut feeling I have, and I have no doubt Young will lose his primary to Palin’s #2.