Rasmussen sure has a lot of good news for us lately (likely voters, 5/15):
Scott Kleeb (D): 40
Mike Johanns (R): 55
(MoE: ±4%)
This race is definitely one of the longer shots of 2008, but Kleeb at 40% is definitely a strong position for a Nebraska Democrat to start off at, especially against a popular former Governor like Johanns, who is viewed favorably by 65% of the state’s voters. Kleeb’s favorables are at 56%.
In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama here by a relatively modest 50-39. (You may recall that Kerry lost Nebraska by a whopping 66-33.) Incidentally, Clinton would lose the state by a much wider 57-34. I wish Rasmussen’s crosstabs would break down the results by congressional district, because I suspect the Omaha-based NE-02 might be in play.
15 points is reasonable. Unfortunately I fear 55 Johanns 45 Kleeb is our best end outcome. Barring some major gaffe by Johanns this race won’t be in play.
….NE-01, land of Lincoln, would be the more winnable electoral vote for Obama than would NE-02. The needle hasn’t seemed to move at all regarding the political attitudes in Omaha in my lifetime, so I’d be surprised to see it transform this quickly into Obama territory. I’m definitely eager to see Nebraska polls showing district breakdowns.
Need to close the gap to single digits to get the GOP to really panic and start spending money here. That is certainly doable, and every dollar they spend here is one less they spend in a tighter race. Hell, they might even send big guns like Bush and Cheney to raising money there, which can only hurt Johanns at this point.
Scott Kleeb v. Mike Johanns
Total Raised — $399,000 v. $2,166,000
Cash On Hand – $243,000 v. $1,357,000
First thing we can do if we want to close this 15 point gap, is to close the financial gap. Johanns has fundraised 5X as much as Kleeb, and he has closer to 6X the Cash on Hand.
IS Oklahoma. I’m really interested to see where this race standds. I have a feeling it may show Rice by much less than is assumed (maybe 8-12 points). Inhofe has never been popular and Rice is a decent candidate.
I wouldn’t say that. Kleeb is a very strong candidate who will be able to raise the money to go toe to toe with Johanns. He has already run one strong campaign and is only going to improve on that.
Kleeb and Johanns are facing off at a debate in a few weeks. Johanns is not taking anything for granted. This is a real challenge. I’m not saying this is easy but this is a very winnable race and is the kind of race I think both the netroots and the DSCC will get involved in. It’s a cheap state to run a campaign in.
I think we can and will win.
I know Kleeb is a darling of a lot of people, and his showing in one of the top 10 most conservative districts in the country was great, this is not a race the DSCC should dump big money into unless they get better feelings of it.
Johanns is really well liked there. Two things Kleeb needs to pound away is (1) Johanns’ connection to the administration; and (2) the fact that Johanns repeatedly leaves jobs mid-way through. Latest case in point: leaving USDOA before the Farm Bill was even ratified.
I really do not like our chances here. Like most of you, I was very disappointed that Kerrey passed on this race as he is a longtime favorite of mine. This is an interesting poll, but I think this race is fairly unwinnable.
Btw, Rasmussen needs to poll Mississippi. I believe right now Musgrove would have a lead, and not at all because of the MS-01 results but because he has a lot of statewide name recognition while Wicker has not yet been in the Senate long. That race intrigues me a lot more!