Pollster Unknown for Leslie Byrne:
Gerry Connolly (D): 37
Leslie Byrne (D): 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The last two internal polls released from Connolly’s camp in January and March showed him leading Byrne by 20 points.
The only other poll released by the Byrne campaign, also from January, had Byrne up by ten. So it’s sort of curious that Byrne’s campaign is claiming to have the momentum:
“With 20 days to go it’s an absolute dead heat,” said Byrne campaign manager Joe Fox. “Leslie Byrne has momentum and is in position to win this primary.”
When asked about the fact that Byrne’s apparent lead has actually shrunk since the campaign’s last poll in January, Fox said: “Voters pay attention at different times. These numbers are fluid from one month to the next. But the bottom line is there are less than three weeks left and it’s a dead heat.”
It’s hard to say who really has the upper hand here, if anyone. However, it’s worth noting that Connolly picked up the endorsement of Gov. Tim Kaine yesterday.
Primary: June 10th
Byrne is a far better candidate and I shutter to think about Connolly in Congress but from what it seems like he is going to buy his way there.
Also my opinion of Tim Kaine just dropped a lot more.
The spokesperson scoffed at the poll. He thought it was inaccurate because a newcomer like Denneny got 8% in the poll. That seems like a realistic amount of support for Denneny. I think he protests too much. Go Byrne!
I havn’t kept up with this race. Is he too conservative or what? And isn’t Byrne a crummy campaigner? She’s lost a lot of races and never won by much when she did.
I’m convinced that the Dem nominee will win in November, so we have an opportunity to choose a BETTER Democrat. The same holds for NY-26.
The fact that she’s still active in politics after the ’94 loss just proves how much I believe she deserves to win her old seat back!
Don’t get me wrong, I think either democrat could win this seat.
In 2005, Byrne lost the race for lieutenant governor with 49.32% to 50.47%, so it wasn’t exactly a blowout. More important, she won the 11th District 54.68% to 45.20%.
For starters, Connolly is a war profiteer. Of course that’s just one of the many, many reasons.
Not Larry Sabato as an ongoing section called “Gerry Connolly Sucks”. Right now, it’s up to reason #62.
Among other things, Connolly is a Joe Lieberman/Zell Miller type.
Connolly has supported Republican candidates over Democrats and also helped to undermine Democratic candidates. He’s closely tied to the Tom Davis machine in NOVA. Connolly was involved in a hit and run accident; he ran into someone else’s car and supposedly never knew it.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Obama is leading McCain by 7 points in VA. Simply stunning…
is not a progressive Democrat, but more of a business-friendly centrist. He and Connolly see/saw eye to eye on some tax and transportation issues in NoVa, and Leslie is really her own person, whereas Connolly is a much more transactional politician.
Idunno what Kaine’s political future is frankly after his one term as governor — he’s annoyed a good portion of the progressive Va blogosphere and, presumably, the progressive grassroots. Fairfax County is trending heavily Democrat, but there’s also an entrenched establishment (many of our Democratic state senators, for instance) that needs cleaning out.
This will take work, but it’s winnable for Byrne. This will be a very low turnout primary — only around 20k Dems voted in the Webb/Miller Dem primary in the 11th two years ago, and that was a much more high profile race.
Raising Kaine has some thoughts on the Kaine endorsement.
it couldn’t be that the guv actually thinks he’s a better candidate, could it? byrne lost the seat badly in 94, has lost a bunch of other elections, and the reason some progressive bloggers seem to be rallying around her is that she supported webb early in ’06.
but they ignore that the DSCC and conservative democrats nationally were supporting webb early, too, because he was perceived (rightfully) as the most electable. just as connolly seems the most electable here.
and winning in ’08 is just one thing to be focused on. there is also holding the seat in ’10 and future elections. with a pres obama and a democratic congress, byrne could be in the same spot as she was in ’94, and she showed how she would perform in such an environment.
better democrats is fine – especially in D20+ districts, but a moderate in a moderate district (D1) makes sense.