June Election Preview: Races Worth Watching

Another month, another round of elections. Once again, the Swing State Project brings you the month in races worth watching:

June 3: This is going to be a big day.

  • AL-02: With Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring at the end this term, the GOP field is large and noisy to replace him. The players include: State Rep. Jay Love, state Rep. David Grimes, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke, TV station executive David Woods, and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. With such a crowded and well-funded field, a 7/15 runoff is all but inevitable. Watch for Smith and one of Love or Woods to advance to the next round.

    I’m hoping that Smith is the GOP victor here, if for no other reason than the fact that she’s dumber than a sack of hammers.

    On the Democratic side, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright will face off with Alabama NOW President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley. Bright’s campaign has been slow to get started, whereas Sabel has won a number of endorsements. Still, Bright should probably be okay based on name recognition.

  • AL-05: Another open seat here, this one left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. State Sen. Parker Griffith of Huntsville is the Democratic front-runner and won’t have any problems in his primary.

    Republicans will decide between insurance executive and ’94/’96 candidate Wayne Parker, businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie, former state Rep. Angelo Mancuso (a turncoat Democrat), ’06 candidate Ray McKee, and a number of also-rans. Parker is thought to be the favorite, but Guthrie has invested a significant amount of her own resources on the race.

  • CA-04: This one should be interesting. With John Doolittle being put out to pasture, Republicans will choose between conservative icon Tom McClintock, a state Senator from southern California, and former Rep. Doug Ose. This has been a bloody and expensive primary, but the winner will still have a big advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in this R+10.9 district.

  • IA-03: Democrats will go to the polls to decide the fate of longtime Rep. Leonard Boswell, who is receiving a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ed Fallon. In a low-turnout affair, anything could happen, but keep in mind that the lone public poll of this race — from Research 2000 in late April — showed Boswell ahead by a wide margin.

  • NJ-Sen: A big event. Not content to “wait his turn”, Rep. Rob Andrews is waging a rough primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). A recent Rasmussen poll gave Lautenberg a 30-point lead here.

    Republicans will choose between ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer, crypto-fascist state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and college professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul acolyte.

  • NJ-03: Republicans were initially very high on Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin VP, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton in this South Jersey distrct. However, Myers’ primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly has descended into a squabbling mess, and neither candidate has been able to match the fundraising juggernaut of the Democratic candidate, state Sen. John Adler. I’m rooting for Kelly to win here, but I like Adler’s chances against either Republican.

  • NJ-07: The GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson appears to be up in the air between state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. It’s unclear to me which candidate would be stronger in the general election. Ex-Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield and Scotch Plains Mayor Marty Marks will also have their names on the ballot.

    State Assemblywoman Linda Stender will be carrying the Democratic banner once again in this tossup district.

  • NM-Sen: This open seat race has caused a domino effect all over New Mexico politics, with all three of the state’s House members throwing their hats in the ring.

    Republicans will decide between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Because of Pearce’s more conservative profile, he would probably be the easier candidate for Democrat Tom Udall to beat in November. Still, the most recent polls show Udall crushing either Republican, so the outcome of the GOP primary may not matter a whole lot for Tom Udall’s chances this November.

  • NM-01: With Heather Wilson out of the picture, Democrats are hopeful that they can finally put this D+2.4 district in the bag. The choices: Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. A a recent poll gave Heinrich a slight lead over Vigil-Giron, but Lujan Grisham has raised and spent a respectable amount.

    Republicans will choose between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joseph Carraro. White, a rare strong recruit by the mostly hapless NRCC, is the overwhelming favorite for his party’s nomination.

  • NM-02: I’ll be relieved when the roster of players vying for Steve Pearce’s open seat is cut to two. On the Democratic side of the playing field, voters in this district will choose between Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. McCamley is an impressive orator and campaigner, but Teague, a wealthy oil man, has drawn on his personal wealth to give his campaign a big financial edge here. The buzz I’ve heard is that Teague is well-placed to win the nomination, a fact that seems to be confirmed by Bill Richardson’s recent endorsement of Teague.

    For what it’s worth, Roll Call quoted an anonymous New Mexico GOP strategist who believes that a Teague victory in this R+5.7 seat is “likely” in November — as long as he makes it out of the primary. I take such things with a heavy grain of salt, though.

    The Republicans have a football team-sized field here, including Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, restaurateur and ’02 candidate Ed Tinsley, retired banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (a former Democrat), local GOP Chairman C. Earl Greer, and businessman Greg Sowards. Tinsley was regarded as the early front-runner, but the National Association of Realtors PAC has dumped around $1 million in support of Newman, and Dunn has also spent over half a million of his own money on the race. With no public polling, the outcome of this one could be anyone’s guess.

  • NM-03: The race to replace Tom Udall in the House is a two-way affair between Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Luján and wealthy home developer Don Wiviott. Wiviott (and other third-string candidates) have been going hard negative on Luján, who appears to have the edge here. Indeed, a recent poll showed Luján with a six-point lead over Wiviott, and Richardson gave him his stamp of approval earlier this week.

    I don’t know or care who the sacrificial GOP lamb is in this D+5.5 district.

June 10:

  • ME-01: With Tom Allen hoping to graduate to the Senate, a posse of Dems are vying to replace him, including: Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, Iraq War vet Adam Cote, and state Sen. Ethan Strimling. Who is the strongest pick here? It beats me. Cote seems to be the most conservative choice, and could sneak in if progressive votes are divided.

    Republicans will pick between former state Sen. Charlie Summers and businessman Dean Scontras, but the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election in this D+6.2 district.

  • SC-02: This is a bit of an oddball race. At a PVI of R+8.9, it’s certainly not on many prognosticators’ radar screens. However, Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq vet who entered this race in March, has raised $200K and loaned himself another $100K, according to the latest FEC filings. That’s an extremely respectable amount for a Democrat in a red district like this one.

    Miller will face off against retired Air Force officer Blaine Lotz.

  • VA-11: A big one. With Tom Davis out of the picture, Democrats are finally making a play for this Dem-trending district. But first, the primary: Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly vs. ex-Rep./ex-state Sen./’05 Lt. Gov. candidate Leslie Byrne. Depending on who you talk to, this race is either neck-and-neck or will go decisively to Connolly.

    The winner will take on Republican Keith Fimian, a political neophyte, but an impressive fundraiser.

June 17:

  • MD-04: Grab your popcorn, it’s time for another edge of your seat special election! Oh wait; Donna Edwards is going to win by 50 points.

June 24:

  • UT-03: A recent poll shows GOP Rep. Chris Cannon leading former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by only two points. Cannon has had his share of close calls in the past, but it’s unclear whether we’ll actually get to do the wingnut shuffle in Utah this year.

17 thoughts on “June Election Preview: Races Worth Watching”

  1. There are a lot of interesting plotlines that have kind of fallen by the way side with the presidential race grabbing all of the oxygen.  I have a couple thoughts to add.

    AL-02.  Everything we have been reading is that Jay Love would be the GOP’s best candidate, so let us hope he loses.

    CA-04.  Does anyone have a feel for this race?  I do not have a good pulse here.  My initial sense was that with Doolittle out, Charlie Brown is going to have a tough time winning.  I really hope that uber carpetbagger and right wing darling McClintock goes down, but the guy has near universal name recognition and is loved by the right wing establishment out there.  Still, the primary has been incredibly bitter which can only help Brown’s cause.  

    NJ-3.  I  was nervous about this one initially, but thank goodness for NJ GOP factional fights.  I agree with you that Kelly would be better to face: he seems much more unstable and conservative than Chris Myers, Saxton’s hand-picked candidate.  Plus, Myers is from more moderate Burlington County, while Kelly is from conservative Ocean County, and he thus may be easier to marginalize.  Being from NJ, I have followed Adler’s career for a while, and I think he is going to be a very good congressman.  He has certainly waited a long time, so he will not take the general for granted.

    NJ-7.  This may seem counterintuitive, but I think there are some advantages to lightweight Kate Whitman winning.  Lance is very well respected in the western part of this large district and has been around a long time.  Whitman is pretty young, and I sense some unease by people with her running with so little experience.  

    NM-Sen.  All I can say is that I am delighted at the prospect of Heather Wilson’s career being over.  Apparently, recent internal polls by both campaigns have Pearce with around a five point lead.  Hopefully she loses.    

  2. This is setting up as one of the craziest stories of the cycle.  War cheerleader and veteran “Democrat” Rob Andrews is finally taking his $2 million war chest and taking on Frank Lautenberg.  Polls show Lautenberg up by 30 points.  The question is what happens to Andrews’ old House seat.  Andrews has his wife warming it up and supported by the local Norcross machine.  The original rumor was that should Rob Andrews lose (as is likely), Camille would dutifully step aside for her husband.  The latest rumor is even more odious.  Camille will still step aside but Norcross will get to choose the replacement from other local pols without benefit of an election.

    The story via PolitickerNJ is that Andrews knows he’s going to get whipped in North Jersy and is using this as an incentive in Camden County to 1) get a big turnout and 2) do it without the risk that one of the local pols would align with Lautenberg.  Pretty crooked if you ask me.

    Camden County’s last big “contribution” to the statewide Democratic scene was a disaster named Jim Florio.  Republicans in NJ still shout his name at any occassion in an effort to stir up their feeble base.  McGreevey, after all, was actually an effective governor, and probably should have served out his term.  His -ex, Dina Matos McGreevey, is looking like the gold digger and whiner of all time in her divorce trial. She wants to live permanently as if she is married to a governor complete with mansion, servants, chef, private helicopters etc. and moans that she can no longer shop at Neiman Marcus.  Oh dear.

  3. The poll mentioned is by that same firm that underestimated Fallon by 100% in the 2006 race for Iowa’s Democratic gubernatorial nomination. They showed him with 13% and he got 26%. That doesn’t inspire confidence in their Iowa polling. The poll had a sample of 400.

    The Fallon campaign has been doing an extensive voter ID effort which is based on more than 20 times that sample size, and their numbers have shown a consistent lead for Fallon across the district. I checked with them as recently as this morning, and their numbers show Fallon continuing to climb and Boswell having plateaued. If the Fallon people match or surpass Boswell on GOTV, Fallon wins.  

  5. Speaking of “dumber than a bag of hammers,” I rather think both Wayne “Peanut” Parker and Cheryl Baswell Guthrie fall into that category.  Baswell Guthrie is spending money like a drunken sailor, but she sure didn’t come off looking like a rocket scientist in the recent debate.  On the other hand, she’s playing to the same base that voted for George Bush twice, so maybe dumb is what they like.

  6. VA-11 is the biggest race of them all, IMO. I really hope Bryne can win.

    Also Maine will be interesting to see. Pingree has raised far more money then any of the others so hopefully she can win. I sure hope Cote doesn’t win beacuse he is so conservative we’d have to primary him. It’s a deep blue seat so I think Pingree would be the best choice.

    New Mexico is another interesting one to watch. All three NM primaries in fact. I’m rooting for Wiviot and McCamley but wouldn’t be hugely disappointed if they lose (Wiviot beacuse Lujan isn’t that bad. McCamley beacuse Teague can probably win). If Heinrich loses I would be very disappointed.  

  7. Harri Anne Smith may or may not be “dumb as a sack of hammers” but she’s dead wrong on the price of milk.  I checked at the grocery store and milk is nowhere near $6 per gallon.  Who knows where she shops?

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