OH-15: Kilroy Leads By 10 in New Internal Poll

Benenson Strategy Group for Mary Jo Kilroy (5/20-22, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47

Steve Stivers (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Stivers, a state senator and an Iraq vet, has been one of the brighter recruiting spots for the NRCC.  Kilroy’s numbers are boosted by fairly high name recognition (78%) from her 2006 run.

Despite her 2006 race being a bruising affair, the Politico notes that her favorability rating has begun to recover into net positive territory:

She had a net favorability rating of 10 percent — 44 percent of respondents held a favorably opinion of her, while 34 percent viewed her unfavorably.

Kilroy’s favorability rating has rebounded from her political standing in October 2006, when a plurality of voters held an unfavorable opinion of her.

This is a 50-50 district that’s trending bluer every day. Kilroy can’t rest easy, but this race is looking good in terms of money (she has a significant fundraising lead) and now poll numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

23 thoughts on “OH-15: Kilroy Leads By 10 in New Internal Poll”

  1. Considering how close she came in 2006, Mary Jo Kilroy didn’t seem to get the respect she deserves from the pundit class.  Well, she has r-e-s-p-e-c-t from the voters.

    So far, a surprisingly small percentage of our nominees for Republican held seats have been women (around 20%) in the states that have already held their primaries.  Nearly all of them have some shot at winning and Kilroy now joins Donna Edwards and possibly Debbie Halvorson as a favorite.  Colleen Callahan, Vic Wulsin, and Anne Barth certainly have strong chances.  “Sam” Bennett, Kathy Dahlkamper and Sharon Neuhardt are long shots but have a shot.Gi Jill Morgenthaler, and Debbie Holmes will be respectable and maybe Heather Ryan will be competitive as well. Jane Mitakides?  Don’t really know.  Bratton and Ruley?  Don’t think so unless, for example, Howard Coble starts to show his age.

    Thirty five more challenger spots, well 33 counting two uncontested seats in California, get filled on June 3.  

  2. We shouldn’t have much trouble winning this one given it is probably one of our top 10 pickup opportunities.  Ohio along with NY, NJ, NM and possibly FL should be our killing fields as far as house pickups go.  In Ohio we have great opportunities in the 1st, 2nd, 14th, 15th, and 16th districts.  At this point I’d predict a 2-3 seat gain in OH.  The 16th is a near slam-dunk the 15th is leaning our way and the 1st and 2nd are probably tossups.

  3. has a better than even shot.  betsy markey in colorado looks very solid.

    and hagen, shaheen, perdue, gregoire, and jill long thompson are all pretty strong for gov and senate.

    i’m surprised that chadinFL took part in choosing Madia in MN-3 since it’s not in FL:)

    madia looked better as a candidate and there was real concern that bonoff was mistake-prone and not ready for prime-time.  madia can certainly win it.

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