Research 2000 for DailyKos (5/20-21, likely voters, no trendlines):
Gary Trauner (D): 44
Cynthia Lummis (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)
The poll has a sample of 48R-24D-28I. Exit polls from 2004 showed turnouts at 53R-25D-22I. If this shift from R to I is accurate, that’s a heartening sign, seeing as most independents these days lean Dem. Indeed, Trauner carries that group 58-32. He also fares far better among Dems (85-11) than Lummis does among Republicans (62-15).
These results are very similar to a Casper Star-Tribune poll from January, which had Trauner edging Lummis 41-40. Then as now, Trauner had more solid support from his own party than Lummis. However, the GOP hasn’t decided on a nominee yet, and won’t until late in the summer – August 19th, in fact. Lummis, a former Secretary of State, has to contend with rancher Mark Gordon, who has raised considerably more than she has – though the bulk of his haul actually consists of a $300K donation he made to his own campaign.
Markos didn’t poll a Trauner-Gordon matchup, but he may want to the next time R2K is in the field: a Gordon internal poll from earlier this month showed him up 39-23 over Lummis. That poll, though, showed 30% undecideds, and I’m going to bet that surveying likely voters for a primary in the dog days of summer is a very inexact science.
Depending on how divisive this primary gets, GOP support may or may not coalesce around the eventual nominee. Right now, Lummis at least seems pretty untarnished, with a 49-29 favorability rating. Trauner’s numbers are similar, 52-31, and he still has a little room for growth (17% have no opinion of him). He’ll need to hope that Republican support for his opponent, whoever it may be, stays soft, and he’ll also need to eke out some more votes from undecided independents. If Trauner can do that, lightning might just strike.
P.S. Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama 53-40. Kerry lost this state 69-29.
Voter registration stats do not match up with these numbers. I suspect that some Wyoming “Republicans” are like southern Democrats and more likely to switch. Given that, registration is down by 38,000 (14.8%) with the Democratic share up 1.7% (hard number) to 27.2% and the Republican share down 2.3% to 62.2%. This is about half the shift that the poll is using but I suspect it may be close to the truth.
And does anyone remember the last Democrat that represented Wyoming’s At large district?
This result confirms the M-D poll which showed Trauner doing well. I find it very interesting that he is doing better than Lummis with the female electorate. Those exit polls are also interesting. Gary could dominate among Dems and independents — and he did in 2006 — and still lose. I do not think that Republicans will be more likely to vote for him this year with Cubin off the ballot, and the presidential and Senate races there. He is going to need to run up his D and I margins even higher.
From the limited amount of recent coverage on this race that I have read, Gordon seems to be doing pretty well. Hopefully Lummis can pull it out because I would prefer not to face a fresh-faced candidate.
One thing worries me that has not gotten a lot of discussion. Obviously, we have the typical concern of having McCain at the top of the ticket, but this year both WY Senate seats are up, and neither of them are being seriously contested, so Lummis or Gordon is going to have McCain-Enzi-Barrasso above their name. This will not be helpful. Gary is going to need to be up by five points+ in the last poll(s) to pull this out.
Lummis is nowhere near being a top-tier recruit. I believe quite a few better republicans passed before Lummis jumped in. Trauner is an excellent campaigner who nearly won it in 2006. I really believe this race will be a tossup on election day.