Well, I’m Crisitunity. David and James were kind enough to ask me to write for the front page when I see fit, so you’ll be seeing more of my contributions. I have no paid connection to the world of politics, and in fact I haven’t since the summer of 1990, which I spent trudging around OR-05 canvassing for Mike Kopetski’s campaign (which, if you do the math, means I’m officially getting to be middle-aged).
As for the “What am I doing here?” part of the question, I’ll mostly be doing more of the big-picture quantitiatve stuff that I’ve been diarying about lately, although I’ll pick up any breaking polls or Republican sex scandals that otherwise fall through the cracks. I’m obsessed with all things demographic, and as we gradually get closer to 2010 and census time, I’ll be focusing more on issues of redistricting and something we need to start worrying about now: state legislature control.
Also, I’d like to keep tinkering with the PVI/Vote Index that many of you are fond of; I’ve been really blown away by the work Poblano (aka Nate Silver) has been doing lately, and would really like to start developing a more comprehensive sabermetric approach to predicting what kind of representative a district can elect and how they might vote once they’re elected. (Unfortunately, I might need something more sophisticated than Excel to make any headway on that! I’m not a professional statistician or demographer or anything close to that, just a dabbler.)
Anyway, SSP has one of the most informed and focused readerships of any blog out there, and I really look forward to hashing things out with you guys. As always, I welcome questions and comments about whatever it is I’m doing.
By the way, if you’re wondering about my handle, it’s a Simpsons reference:
Lisa: Look on the bright side, Dad. Did you know that the Chinese use the same word for ‘crisis’ as they do for ‘opportunity’?
Homer: Yes! Crisitunity.
I’m really excited to read that you’ll be reporting on this issue! Obviously Dems are severely handicapped in a number of states–FL and VA spring to mind–because Repubs control the state legislature meaning that THEY controlling the redistricting proces. Obviously when Repubs are able to frame the districting structure, Dems can only fight within the parameters that have been established by the opposition. By definition, that pretty much limits where we can compete successfully.
I realize that work of this sort isn’t very glamorous or sexy. It’s much more interesting to game our chances within ‘what is’. At the same time, THIS is the kind of work that is necessary for the long-term struggle to establish dominance, or at least to eliminate an uneven playing field.
Congratulations in advance for undertaking such a huge and important task! Many of us will be watching closely what you report since data of this sort are not readily available on a national level.
Hi, statistician here. 🙂
I had been thinking of doing some analysis about how congressional districts have changed over time in their voting patterns to best judge which districts are most in play, but for that, I’d need a TON more data than seems to be publicly available out there.
Like, election results from every single PRECINCT in the country going back to the 1980s. Precincts are necessary because of how redistricting changes congressional boundaries every 10 years in a lot of places. And then overlay that with the demographic data of each location.
But, with my work schedule and the near impossibility of getting all that data, it remains a pie-in-the-sky dream for now.
And for some reason I had always read your handle as “Crist unity”, thinking you misspelled “Christ”, or that you had Charlie Crist as your governor. Can’t believe I missed that Simpsons reference. I am humbled.