Anzalone-Liszt Research for Debbie Halvorson (5/18-22, likely voters):
Debbie Halvorson (D): 43
Martin Ozinga (R): 32
Jason Wallace (G): 6
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Despite this being an R+1.1 district, Democrats hold a 44%-33% generic ballot advantage over Republicans, and a 41%-35% advantage in partisan self-identification.
Certainly not a bad place to start for Halvorson. Full memo below the fold.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.
Could it be that the IL GOP is really run by Democrats pretending to be Republicans? First nominating Keyes to fill Jack Ryan’s Senate slot, and now nominating Martin Ozinga, with all his ethical issues? PLEASE! Its almost like they are trying to lose, and doing a great job at it!
now we need to focus on pushing Dan Seals over the finish line…
and why can we never get a strong challenger to Judy Biggert?!?
Don’t count out Scott Harper. He may have started with little name recongnition in the district but he has run a solid campaign ans has had some good fundraising numbers. With Obama really driving turnout in Illinois, Biggert could be in a lot of trouble. Roskam, Schock, and Manzullo too.
Halvorson should still win this one in a landslide. This is probably our easiest pickup of the cycle with NY-13, NY-25, AZ-01, VA-11 and OH-16 close behind.
so this shouldn’t be a problem for Halvorson then, should it?
Halvorsen was removed from the position so she could focus on campaigning. Thats all there is too it. This way, Ozinga can’t try to nail every failure to pass something on her feet.
Can someone explain the GOP implosion in Illinois? I am a Democratic optimist and I thought for sure that Blago would lose to Judy Baar Topinka, who made all the right moves to be seen as a moderate (pro-choice, pro-gay, etc), yet he crushed her. Other than her, they’ve only run ridiculous candidates such as Alan Keyes and Jack “Sex Clubs” Ryan.