SurveyUSA (5/30-6/1, likely and actual voters, 5/12-14 in parens):
Steve Pearce (R): 48 (49)
Heather Wilson (R): 47 (46)
Undecided: 3 (2)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Wilson leads among early voters by a point, but that’s well within the margin of error. With polls closing tomorrow night, this one is looking like a nailbiter.
But it sure isn’t looking like a nailbiter in November (registered voters):
Tom Udall (D): 60 (60)
Steve Pearce (R): 35 (36)Tom Udall (D): 60 (61)
Heather Wilson (R): 36 (35)
(MoE: ±2.3%)
It’s on the front page of most news websites by now. He’s 90 years old so I suppose things like this will happen. Best wishes to the Senator. I hope he’s ok.
If god forbid the worst happened it would be Democratic WV Governor Manchin who would name appoint a successor to that seat.
http://www.cnn.com/
Pearce wins by a bigger margin than the polls show. I say Pearce by 8.
I think there are three strong reasons why it would be better if Pearce won the primary:
(1) Even though both Pearce and Wilson appear to be doing equally dismal against Udall in the general, Wilson would probably do better. She is more moderate than Pearce, and her base in the first district could cut a bit more into Udall voters. Just from following them both, I think she is a shrewder politician and would run a better general election campaign. Plus, Pete would probably work harder for her than for Pearce. In the end, I think they both lose but I think Pearce loses by more;
(2) While I would love to win the NM-02 seat, and I think we can, it is going to be an uphill battle. Conversely, NM-01 looks to be much closer given the demographics of the district. Should Wilson prevail tomorrow, she would probably give a boast to Darren White in November. Given what will probably be a close race, that could keep us from finally winning the seat. Pearce being at the top of the ticket may keep us from winning his House seat, but NM-01 is a safer bet for us generally; and
(3) Wilson is awful. She is unquestionably one of my least favorite Republicans. I think her pitiful crying about the Janet Jackson Super Bowl halftime show a la Rev. Lovejoy’s wife — won’t somebody please think of the children!! — clinced it for me. I have been waiting a long time for her to lose. She only won her seat in the first place over Phil Maloof because of a Green Party candidacy which siphoned off 15 percent of the vote, and she only held on last year because Patricia Madrid had that long pause during the late debate. It is long past time to see her go.
losing to pearce or udall? a semi/close race whereshe ma or may not win, o an exected huge blowout?
I’m from Albuquerque (via Santiago, Chile) and remember that Madrid led Wilson for months leading to the election and then, out of nowhere, wilson won by 800 votes. She is always a strong closer and with her strongarming Domenici into an endorsement… who knows. I have personal dislike for Wilson so I would love to see her political career killed in a primary. Also, she can drain some of the moderate female vote from Udall.
I predict a Pearce win by more than expected (and I hope I’m right!) Maybe like 8 points. I’ll go on record and say 46-54. Let’s see how my prediction fairs.
Truth is the Repub candidate in Wilson’s house district is not inspiring turnout, but there is a fierce battle for the Repub nod in Pearce’s district. Plus, I think lots of people (myself included) see Wilson as overtly manipulative.
Pearce, though I disagree thoroughly with everything he stands for, is at least honest and straight-forward (as much as a Repub can be anyway).
Udall will wipe the floor with Pearce or Wilson, I just don’t want to see 4 more months of her face on my TV (vomit…)
I’m new here, so please tell me what you think. Also, I will post predictions for the house races on the newer predictions thread.