Rasmussen Reports (6/10, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):
Hagan (D): 39 (48)
Dole (R-inc.): 53 (47)
Other: 3 (2)
Undecided: 5 (3)
(MoE: ±4%)
A fourteen-point swing in one month is the kind of thing which always calls one poll or the other into question. In this case, though, we have a third poll to go by. Rasmussen tested the waters here in April and found Dole leading 52-39. That sure makes the middle poll from May look like noise, which Ras suggests may have been due to a post-primary bounce for Hagan. Since then, Dole’s gone up with TV ads, which might have helped bring Hagan down to earth.
Dole is doing very well among Republicans, winning them 90-6. Hagan, meawhile, is at just 68-25 among Dems. Frustratingly, Rasmussen refuses to detail the makeup of its samples (even though they provide crosstabs) so we have no idea what the D-R-I split was here.
The news on the presidential front is a lot better: McCain edges Obama by just two points, 45-43. Note, though, that Rasmussen has shown NC-Pres virtually tied for three months, with no bounces or dips as with NC-Sen. Still, though, I like the prospect of Obama coattails here.
SSP currently races this race as Lean Republican.
This and MS-B I think are the two pure tossups this cycle.
If Obama is so close to McCain, how can Dole increase her lead so much. Are “Obama” respondents lying?
I just don’t see how he can’t cringe when he puts out a poll after a previous poll that shows such a wide change? I find it unimaginable that there was this large of a swing in the minds of NC voters.
More and more I just wonder if paying attention to Rasmussen’s polls makes sense!
Hagan is a quality candidate who would make a terrific senator – she just needs to get her message out. African-American turnout in November will help hagan a great deal, but the DSCC will need to make a serious investment to win this race.
Like this and MS-SEN are difficult to impossible to poll because so much will be based on how successful the Obama registration drive ultimately is and how he is able to turn out African-American voters. If Obama is able to get African-American turnout in NC to 30% it makes him winning the state much more likely and it also makes Hagan winning much more likely. In MS, if he’s able to get turnout to 40%, same story.
Right now the pollsters are going on 04 turnout and that really is the best projection right now because there’s no way to accurately measure how successful Obama’s turnout machine will be, but you therefore have to take polls like this with a grain of salt.