The Mellman Group for Mary Landrieu (5/17-20, 12/2007 in parens):
Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 49 (48)
John Kennedy (R): 33 (35)
(n=600)
This poll stands in contrast with a recent Rasmussen poll showing a three-point race. The main difference in the limited information we can find from the cross-tabs is in Kennedy’s name recognition:
The Mellman poll has Landrieu being viewed favorably by 60 percent of respondants, compared to 28 percent negative. Kennedy’s positive/negative rating was 42-12 percent.
By contrast, the Rasmussen poll shows both candidates about equally known. In it, Landrieu has a 59-37 percent positive/negative ratio, compared to Kennedy’s 57-31 percent.
While out of line with Rasmussen’s numbers, the poll isn’t far off from a Southern Media & Opinion Research survey from April that showed Landrieu leading by 50-38.
We’ll be seeing a lot more polls from this state in due course.
(H/T: Pollster.com)
I’m just saying.
I think Landrieu is fine and will win re-election. All polls show her with a decent medium to large single digit advantage.
She has has $4.5 million more Cash on hand than her opponent. Also Kennedy will have a primary challenge which will drive him further to the right, alienating voters, and cost him a lot of resources he doesn’t have. I also imagine that the primary will be brutal.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Warner over Gilmore by a 60-33 margin. Hilarious.
Also Obama over McCain by 1 point.
Republicans love to play offense and/or go after the Democrats strengths or home territories. It was often said that Al Gore’s failure to protect Tennessee cost him the election. I think it is closer to the truth that the Republicans in 2000 went expensively on the offense and were caught napping in three to five other states.
Will the Republicans blow half their treasury in LA or will it be NJ? Either way they may find some other states have gone down the drain while they play hopeless offense and leave some of their own seats on their own.