Goodwin Simon Victoria Research for Larry Joe Doherty (5/27-31, likely voters):
Larry Joe Doherty (D): 34
Mike McCaul (R-inc): 43
(n=400)
On the generic ballot, the the GOP has a mere four-point advantage over the Democrats in this R+13 district, with a 45-41 congressional preference. The fact that McCaul is actually underperforming the GOP’s generic strength here is eye-opening.
But that’s not McCaul’s only measure of weakness in the poll. A full 47% of respondents don’t even recognize his name, and his job rating is a stunningly mediocre 28% positive, 29% negative (and 42% unsure). What’s more, a massive 70% of voters rate President Bush’s job performance negatively, and 69% of the district’s voters think the country is seriously on the wrong track. All of this gives a big opening for a well-funded Democratic challenger like Larry Joe Doherty to exploit.
SSP first noted this race back in June 2007, when we made the case that the Democratic trend of the district and McCaul’s mediocre performance in the 2006 elections might put this one in play. We’ve had this district on our list of races to watch for a while, and we upgraded our rating of this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican last week after an independent poll was released showing Doherty trailing McCaul by six points.
This race has some real potential to heat up.
When Democrats are competitive in districts that lean Republican by 13%, I just can’t help but feel that 2008 is going to be a landslide.
This is a great potential pickup, things are looking up in the lonestar state.
Along with TX-07, this district saw the biggest drop of Bush’s vote between 2000 and 2004 among Texas districts controlled by the GOP. Bush’s percentage went from 67 to 62 (it went from 69 to 64 in the Seventh). These districts are slowly moving into more winnable territory.
Now can Michael Skelly release an internal poll in his race against John Culberson?
If I’m not mistaken, a district’s PVI is based on the presidential results of the last two elections. Considering that Bush was on the ballot both times, wouldn’t his home state advantage mean that Texas districts have their Republican PVI levels inflated? What I mean is, wouldn’t it make sense that a lot of these deep red Texas districts are actually a lot less red because Bush got a bigger bounce in his home state?
By that logic, Massachusetts districts wouldn’t be as blue as their PVI suggests (maybe that would account for Ogonowski’s suprisingly strong showing in MA-5?), and Illinois and Arizona districts will show a more partisan PVI after the election.
In MD-01 Democrat Frank Kratovil is running against State Senator Harris. The last poll commissioned showed Kratovil down 43-34. Most commenters still thought Kratovil had no chance. Why are commenters much more bullish on this race? MD-01 has more Democrats.